Forecasting Total Goals

[Guest OddsAgainst]

This year's system is based on total goals and superiority forecasts which are in turn converted to "true" odds for the matches. It is used to generate the COPS over / under selections and also the prices for the EPL pricing comp. So far, 93 matches have been processed from EPL and all the Scottish divisions. By adding the home and away goal expectancies for all these games we can get a forecast for home and away goal over the 93 games. Here are the forecasts together with the actual goals for these 93 games. Home goals predicted 143.69 Actual home goals 142 Away goals predicted 118.79 Actual away goals 119 Total predicted 262.48 Actual total 261 Average home superiority predicted 0.30 Actual average superiority 0.25 The question is, can anything interesting be deduced about the individual match expectancies from the overall results above?

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Forecasting Total Goals I think I can answer that and the answer is probably not. Here are the predictions obtained using the league averages multiplied by the number of games. Home goals predicted 143.56 Actual home goals 142 Away goals predicted 115.94 Actual away goals 119 Total predicted 259.5 Actual total 261 Average home superiority predicted 0.29 Actual average superiority 0.25