X Marks the Spot (LayinG Draws) - Systems League

[Guest cjamars]

X marks the spot As I am usually very longwinded :D I’ll keep this short. While investigating something else completely differently for me (a golf predicting engine) my girlfriend’s brother ran a computer program that when applied to the last 2 seasons in England (EPL to Division 3) seems to produce a very healthy yield if used to lay draws. Just over 2,000 matches were selected from a possible base of 4,072. Strike rate was 74%. Taken individually only 2 divisions showed a loss and overall the yield using average stakes of 3.35 (pre comm. On Betfair) would have yielded about 6%. The problem is that the criteria/ parameters I gave him to use for the program were set after the event so it’s possible the results were fitted after the event subconsciously. We’ll soon find out. I’ll run this as my system for the Systems League as the other ones I am interested in are doubles at a minimum. If it looks like being anything positive I’ll expand. I anticipate at least 20 bets per week. Start date this weekend. Basic Inviolable Rules: Start Bank – 100 Units Basic Stake – 1 Unit Maximum Loss – 2.5 Units All Bets – Matched on Betfair Unless Explicitly Stated Otherwise Stake Review – Review Bank after every 100 Units. A 10% increase in start bank will increase stakes proportionately. A reduced bank below 100 Units will not affect basic stakeing Selected Divisions – EPL, English Divisions 1 to 3. Possible extension if system goes well and backtesting by a second person on other leagues proves positive.

[Joe]

Re: X Marks the Spot (LayinG Draws) - Systems League Like the sound of this, but what makes you think that average draw price with Betfair is 3.35? A quick check from Tip-ex reveals that the average draw price for Saturday's English coupon is 3.59. To get your lays matched, this will required a higher price. Call it 3.6, you need a strike rate of 72.22% to break even, so if your system is returning 74% winners, that's only a 2.46% yield. Still promising, but you'll need to manage your betting bank much more carefully and take a long term view of it to keep with this one.