Spooner Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Been testing a system since towards the end of last season and now were four games in this season it can continue. Its basically just home teams with no home win for two games or more in a row in there respective leagues, Cups do not count....Basic, I know. :loon Leagues I have been testing have been the English leagues, I did have some sort of success with this but we shall see how we go. :ok Premiership Championship League 1 League 2 Start bank will be 100pts. Each team will be 1pt win. Shall put up tomorrow's selections in a short while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... good luck spooner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 5, 2008 Author Share Posted September 5, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... League 1 Leeds v Crewe - Leeds @ 8/15 Brighton v Scunthorpe - Brighton @ 6/5 Lots in league Two this weekend. :loon League 2 Notts County v Bournemouth - Notts County @ 6/4 Exeter v Accrington - Exeter @ 11/10 Morecambe v Shrewsbury - Morecambe @ 5/2 Chesterfield v Rotherham - Chesterfield @ Chesterfield 29/20 Macclesfield v Luton - Macclesfield @ 27/20 Lincoln v Barnet - Lincoln @ 19/20 No Championship or Premiership obviously because of the internationals. :ok Thanks Ali. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Good luck mate. Sometimes the best systems are the least complicated. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Good luck with this one mate , think it has real possibilites. I aasume it has shown promise ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 5, 2008 Author Share Posted September 5, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Macclesfield @ 27/10... Not 27/20. In a rush Hodgey, Thanks :ok Seems that way. :loon jtw, I acutally started using this system about 3 years ago, It did OK, Not huge profits and got bored with it in the end as I was a lazy sod going through previous stats. Im more focused now I hope. Towards the end of last season obviously some teams were playing for nothing so it wasn't a great assessment. Anyway off now, So :hope for tomorrrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 6, 2008 Author Share Posted September 6, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... League 1 Leeds v Crewe - Leeds @ 8/15 - 5-2 :D Brighton v Scunthorpe - Brighton @ 6/5 - 1-4 :( League 2 Notts County v Bournemouth - Notts County @ 6/4 - 1-1 :( Exeter v Accrington - Exeter @ 11/10 - 3-1 :D Morecambe v Shrewsbury - Morecambe @ 5/2 - 1-0 :D Chesterfield v Rotherham - Chesterfield 29/20 - 1-0 :D Macclesfield v Luton - Macclesfield @ 27/10** - 2-1 :D Lincoln v Barnet - Lincoln @ 19/20 - 2-0 :D Starting bank - 100pts Current bank - 107.23pts Total staked - 8pts Number of bets - 8 Winning bets - 6 Losing bets - 2 Strike rate - 75% Yield - 90.375% Profit/Loss - +7.23pts Can someone say if my strike rate and yield is right as its the first time ive worked it out, Followed instructions on here and want to be sure. Thanks. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted September 6, 2008 Share Posted September 6, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... very nice start spooner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 6, 2008 Author Share Posted September 6, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Thanks Ali. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 6, 2008 Share Posted September 6, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Starting bank - 100pts Current bank - 107.23pts Total staked - 8pts Number of bets - 8 Winning bets - 6 Losing bets - 2 Strike rate - 75% Yield - 90.375% Profit/Loss - +7.23pts Can someone say if my strike rate and yield is right as its the first time ive worked it out, Followed instructions on here and want to be sure. Thanks. :ok 6 wins from 8 picks - 6/8 = 75% so strike rate is correct. 7.23pts returned from a stake of 8 pts - (7.23/8)*100 = 90.735% so yield is correct. Good start, well done.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Cheers Matt. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... spooner, just a quick bit of back testing on the premiership from the last 5 years: betsprofit070810511.60607963.880506986.16040510216.39030410623.27all50761.3 giving a yield of 12%, using best odds available from footballdata. there is not a single season in loss, going back to 2003! the two previous years to these made losses (lack of bookmakers odds to compare) and the championship has an off/on record, but it does seem to work in the premiership! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... spooner, just a quick bit of back testing on the premiership from the last 5 years: betsprofit070810511.60607963.880506986.16040510216.39030410623.27all50761.3 giving a yield of 12%, using best odds available from footballdata. there is not a single season in loss, going back to 2003! the two previous years to these made losses (lack of bookmakers odds to compare) and the championship has an off/on record, but it does seem to work in the premiership!Muppet, Interesting stats. I thought the Premiership could be the dodgy league so to speak, Teams like Derby or the old Sunderland etc. That looks good though! The other three leagues most games don't go to the formbook anyway, Its not a big surprise if bottom beats one of the top 3 at home etc, So I thought these may bring the profits (League two last weekend for example.) I will be putting up next week's qualifiers during the week at some point, For anyone interested. No premiership just yet as no team playing at home with two defeats/draw, Possibly the following week. Thanks for that! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Great start mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... 2007/8 backtesting: bets profit yield prem 105 11.6 11% champ 164 -0.92 -1% L1 150 1.96 1% L2 182 -29.94 -16% conf 166 11.68 7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 8, 2008 Author Share Posted September 8, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... 2007/8 backtesting: bets profit yield prem 105 11.6 11% champ 164 -0.92 -1% L1 150 1.96 1% L2 182 -29.94 -16% conf 166 11.68 7% Not so good. :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Not so good. :$ Don't be too disheartened though cos last season had an unusually high number of away wins in League 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... agreed - i didn't want to put the dampeners on it - just show you some info relating to your idea. keep up the hard work! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 8, 2008 Author Share Posted September 8, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Yeah good point Hodgey! :ok muppet, im glad you're taking an interest. :cheers Something so basic could be so great....:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 8, 2008 Author Share Posted September 8, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Weekend 13/14th Premiership No Qualifiers Championship Blackpool v Barnsley - Blackpool @ 6/5 Crystal Palace v Swansea City - Crystal Palace @ 6/5 Derby v Sheffield Utd - Derby @ 15/8 Ipswich v Reading - Ipswich @ 6/4 Plymouth v Norwich - Plymouth @ 11/8 League 1 Huddersfield v Tranmere - Huddersfield @ Evens Yeovil v Brighton - Yeovil @ 6/4 League 2 Barnet v Morecambe - Barnet @ 6/4 Bournemouth v Macclesfield - Bournemouth @ 4/5 Darlington v Port Vale - Darlington @ Evens Grimsby v Chester - Grimsby @ Evens Luton v Aldershot - Luton @ 6/5 :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... those leqgue 2 games look more tasty than the others - will be interesting to see how this pans out in the long term... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest Al the punters pal Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Spooner, I wonder what your overall figures would look like 'IF' you dropped home teams in relegation positions out of the betting? Throughout the course of a season that would then stop you continuously losing money on the Derby County's of ALL divisions... I haven't got the stats but it would be interesting to know how the above would have effected your system in seasons gone by? The very best of luck anyway mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Spooner, I wonder what your overall figures would look like 'IF' you dropped home teams in relegation positions out of the betting? Throughout the course of a season that would then stop you continuously losing money on the Derby County's of ALL divisions... I haven't got the stats but it would be interesting to know how the above would have effected your system in seasons gone by? The very best of luck anyway mate!Yeah this did cross my head, Or if teams go on a losing run of say 5+ home games in a row then I will not include them anymore, Ill keep it like this for a while and see where it takes us. You can gurantee though that at least one team will go on a big losing/draw run at home so something I feel will have to be done. Cheers for your input. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest Al the punters pal Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Spooner, I also wonder what would happen to your % return IF you were to 'tweek' your system slightly to make it 3 game totals rather than 2 games? Obviously you would have far fewer games to bet on but I dare say it would push your success rate and therefore profits up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Spooner' date=' I also wonder what would happen to your % return IF you were to 'tweek' your system slightly to make it 3 game totals rather than 2 games? Obviously you would have far fewer games to bet on but I dare say it would push your success rate and therefore profits up![/quote']I may keep track of this aswell. :ok I lose interest quick with my ideas/systems so bear with me. :lol Unless of course you want to keep track of it (3 draw/defeats). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest Al the punters pal Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Unless of course you want to keep track of it (3 draw/defeats)... ....I may paper chase it for a few weeks before my own system starts up. I paper chased an under/overs system last year that worked really really well but it needs for 6 home and 6 away games played by each club before it works. I'll let you know how I get on mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 13, 2008 Author Share Posted September 13, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Weekend 13/14th Championship Blackpool v Barnsley - Blackpool @ 6/5 - 1-0 :D Crystal Palace v Swansea City - Crystal Palace @ 6/5 - 2-0 :D Derby v Sheffield Utd - Derby @ 15/8 - 2-1 :D Ipswich v Reading - Ipswich @ 6/4 - 2-0 :D Plymouth v Norwich - Plymouth @ 11/8 - 1-2 :( League 1 Huddersfield v Tranmere - Huddersfield @ Evens - 1-2 :( Yeovil v Brighton - Yeovil @ 6/4 - 1-1 :( League 2 Barnet v Morecambe - Barnet @ 6/4 - 1-1 :( Bournemouth v Macclesfield - Bournemouth @ 4/5 - 0-1 :( Darlington v Port Vale - Darlington @ Evens - 2-1 :D Grimsby v Chester - Grimsby @ Evens - 1-3 :( Luton v Aldershot - Luton @ 6/5 - 2-1 :D Profit again this week = 2.87pts A small one but profit. :ok:hope Starting bank - 100pts Current bank - 110.10pts Total staked - 20pts Number of bets - 20 Winning bets - 12 Losing bets - 8 Strike rate - 60% Yield - 50.5% Profit/Loss - +10.10pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 14, 2008 Author Share Posted September 14, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Midweek 16/17th Championship Burnley v Blackpool - Burnley @ Evens Bristol City v Birmingham - Bristol City @ 9/5 Norwich v Queens Park Rangers - Norwich @ 6/4 Southampton v Ipswich - Southampton @ 6/4 League 1 Cheltenham v Bristol Rovers - Cheltenham @ 8/5 Stockport v Northampton - Stockport @ 11/10 :ok:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCtips Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Congratulations on your system (and results so far) Spooner :ok! Wish you all the success with it and I might even give it a go sometime. Good contribution on everybody as well and I must say that my perception (just my perception..maybe someone can look at the actual data from previous seasons and see the results) is also that the results might improve if you exclude the worst clubs in the league (bottom 2 or 3 clubs). It would also be interesting to see how it works in other countries. Here's some data regarding last season's home win % by country: EPL = 46% Italy = 46% Spain = 48% France = 44% Germany = 47% Holland = 47% Scotland = 50% :cheers JC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 15, 2008 Author Share Posted September 15, 2008 Re: Very Basic Football System... Congratulations on your system (and results so far) Spooner :ok! Wish you all the success with it and I might even give it a go sometime. Good contribution on everybody as well and I must say that my perception (just my perception..maybe someone can look at the actual data from previous seasons and see the results) is also that the results might improve if you exclude the worst clubs in the league (bottom 2 or 3 clubs). It would also be interesting to see how it works in other countries. Here's some data regarding last season's home win % by country: EPL = 46% Italy = 46% Spain = 48% France = 44% Germany = 47% Holland = 47% Scotland = 50% :cheers JCThanks JC. :cheers Yeah, I may start 'twigging' it during the season when you see who are bad at home etc... But its definitely a good start with no 'twigging' done yet. :ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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