Keep It Tight Lads, said Mr Manager...........

[Matthew]

.............at least for the first 10 minutes. Having finally managed to get a spreadsheet to record the odds minute by minute from the Under x.5 goals markets for the premiership I thought I'd have a crack at the Under 1.5 goals market as my (limited) research tells me this is where the biggest gains are to be made from laying the under 1.5 10 minutes into the game. For instance, this weekends prime candidate was the Villa v L'pool game according to my criteria. Aston Villa have scored 2 goals in the first 10 minutes of their last 38 home games Aston Villa have conceded 5 goals in the first 10 minuts of their last 38 home games Aston Villa have had 63.2% of their last 38 home games end with <=2 goals scored in the game Liverpool have scored 3 goals in the first 10 minutes of their last 38 away games Liverpool have conceded 0 goals in the first 10 minutes of their last 38 away games Liverpool have had 55.3% of their last 38 away games end with <=2 goals scored in the game If I had backed Under 1.5 goals at the off @ 3.20 and then layed this off 10 minutes into the game @ 2.90 I could have greened up to have £98.23 (taking in to account commision). Based on backing for 1,000 pts. Approx 20% of premiership games have had a goal in the 1st 10 minutes since the start of the 01/02 season. 2001/02 season: 21.3% 2002/03 season: 18.6% 2003/04 season: 23.6% 2004/05 season: 21.0% 2005/06 season: 18.9% 2006/07 season: 17.4% I've observed that the odds triple if a goal goes in, I've not seen enough yet to know whether time of the 1st goal is a factor. I think it will be as if a goal goes in the first minute then the under 1.5 goal market is surely fcuked. Whatever happens I'll be trading out at 10mins exactly if no goals have gone in. If a goal is scored in the first 10 then I'll trade out immediately. I'm very disinterested in losing the lot by trying to save a couple of points. Let's see how we go shall we..............it's high risk, but what else is the glory hunt for?!?!?!?!. :ok:ok:okPAPER TRIAL:ok:ok:ok Starting bank = 500pts Backing under 1.5 in selected matches for 100pts

[Matthew]

Re: Keep It Tight Lads, said Mr Manager........... For anyone like me who hadn't seen this image, well I hadn't until today. The normal betfair graphs don't do it for me.