Spot The Ginger

[Gingertipster]

Spot The Ginger I greatly admire those giving tips in racing papers before the market is known. Effectively working out probable betting and a value bet. e.g. Spotlight in the Racing Post. So in the same way as Spotlight I will try previewing certain chosen races. Giving a brief write up of every horse, summary, betting forecast and “tip”. To make a profit on races where the odds are known is difficult enough, without doing it blind. So I do not really expect to make a profit on these tips. These previews will be done before everyone else. Previously after producing my prices I could check them against Spotlight's forecast (on the Racing Post website). If anything was very different I'd go back on my analysis in case of a mistake. Sometimes there was one, sometimes not. However, on this thread I'll be completely on my own. Will not be looking at any particular type of race, it could be a group race, maiden or even class 5 handicap. The betting forecast will be what I think it will be, with bookmakers mark up added. Not what I think it should be and not to 100%. Don't expect miracles, there will be occasions my forecasts are wide of the mark e.g. On reappearance a horse with the best form might or might not be fit, so is difficult to predict its SP. On 29^th August 6:40 Salisbury, Bazergan, (13lbs clear top rated in Timeform) Spotlight (Steven Boow)'s forecast 15/8 fav, yet allowed to go off 6/1. The going might also change / be different. If I do as well as Spotlight journalists I'll be happy, just want to test myself. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Spot The Ginger 3:45 Goodwood 7f Group 3 (Good-soft) Appalachian Trail: Being poorly drawn should not be such a disadvantage for a hold up horse who is best in strongly run races. Won a listed race and third to Major Cadeaux, both at Haydock. Excuses since but showed little real encouragement last time. Would not be inconvenienced by soft ground. Beaver Patrol: Genuine sort, better than ever at age of six this year but will need career best here to win, second in Wokingham under 9-2. Good placed effort in Hungerford Stakes: beaten 4 ½ lengths by Paco Boy. The easier 7f than Newbury should suit if ground conditions do not place too much emphasis on stamina. Duff: Dip-backed Irish gelding. Got the run of the race at Cork last time (1m good-soft), equally effective at 7f and has run well in Britain before: won at York last season. Front runner but it is possible will be taken on by Welsh Emporer. Excusez Moi: Frustrating sort, losing run stretches back to 2006 Great St. Wilfred (6f soft). 50/1, good 4^th in Totesport International at Ascot (7f good-firm) penultimate start but since ran poorly in Hungerford, played up going to start. Has refused to enter stalls, inconsistent and looks temperamental these days. Probably not good enough either. Express wish: Well backed disappointing favourite in 6f handicap at Glorious Goodwood. Visored and tongue tied for first time there, not so this time. Lightly raced, evidently thought capable of better but needs to be in this company. Needs to settle to get today's new trip and poorly drawn. Royal Vintage: Last seen in March when 2^nd in UAE Derby in Dubai (1m1f on dirt). Travelled well there and has won at 7f on soft in his native South Africa. Entries in both QEII and Champion stakes. Thought by trainer potentially better on turf. Races prominently or tracks pace. Welsh Emperor: Admirable nine year old. Disappointed despite almost ideal conditions (loves soft ground) in Hungerford, winner and 2^nd previous years. Haydock winner on heavy but opposition not up to this standard. With Duff in the field may not get his own way up front. Hitchens: Three year old who looked capable of better when winning on reappearance at Windsor, 6f on good-firm. Below form since in Stewards Cup and 7f Totesport International (should stay). Best form on a sound surface but shown promise over inadequate 5f on good-soft. Held up / tracks pace. Sharp Nephew: Unraced since got up last strides in listed mile all-weather race on reappearance in early April. That race was slowly run and could still be equally effective at today's trip. Lightly raced and capable of improvement. However, only race lost was also only start on a soft surface when joint favourite for Royal Lodge. Betting Forecast (to 117.8%): 9/4 Duff 11/4 Royal Vintage 7 Beaver Patrol 8 Hitchens 17/2 Sharp Nephew 10 Appalachian Trail 11 Welsh Emperor 15 Express Wish 50 Excusez Moi Conclusion: Preference goes to Duff despite worries over being taken on by fellow front runner Welsh Emperor. Royal Vintage may be capable of improvement but has too many question marks fitness, shorter trip and different surface. 3 year olds Sharp Nephew and Hitchens (each way alternative) may have too much improvement to make. Ginge