my %s for EPL

[Guest smudge]

have been looking at devising %s ratings for the EPL and have come up with my first crude attempt. i'll post some of my findings here - of most interest to me are those selctions that i deem to have 50% or greater chance of winning AND where the price on offer represents value accordingly. this week i have picked out these: bolton v southampton 50% X true odds 1.98 odds available 3.30 portsmouth v leeds 58% 1 true odds 1.73 odds available 2.00 liverpool v man utd 57% 2 true odds 1.76 odds available 2.50 also poor value according to this method: arsenal v spurs 59% 1 true odds 1.70 odds available 1.45 man city v leicester 65% 1 true odds 1.53 odds available 1.50 other matches with supposed value: wolves v brum away win true odds 2.18 odds available 2.62 charlton v fulham away win true odds 2.29 odds available 3.00 blackburn v everton away win true odds 2.42 odds available 3.00 if my predictions are anywhere near right there seems to be stonking value in man utd away to liverpool this week! big value in the bolton v southampton draw and something to consider on the portsmouth home win. this is my first attempt at %s so feel free to comment and don't laugh when it all goes horribly wrong!

[Guest Lardonio]

Re: my %s for EPL I always find models like this interesting. Are you willing to tell us a little about the method you are using to arrive at these percentages? 1,98 for a draw sounds mighty low..