betting on deviant prices

[Guest qxsad]

The last year or so i have been betting on sports mostly soccer.But i only bet when i find a price that is 30% over the average of the books at betbrain. Eg. I took birmingham at 7.50 earlier in the week at premierbet the avg price was around 5.75. 36% over the average The way i figure it is on evens to say 3-1 shots the bookies has an average overround of about 12-15% On 4-1 to 6-1 shots an overround of about 15-25%, this is taking the fav/longshot bias into account. I rarely bet on longer than 6-1 shots unless i get a way off price. There has to be over 30 books and the deviation must not be too much,ie if the avg was 4.00 and there is a few prices at 5.00 but also lots of prices at 3.10 or something then i would not take it. I was doing well for the 1st nine months but lately have been getting hammered! It is not very scientific but it seems to make mathematical sense that if you consistently bet at 30% over the Average price you must make a profit in the long run. Anyone have data such as Adrian Masseys table on the percentage times SP have won horse races. If i could check how manty times say a team of avg 4.00 actually wins and but that into a fair price then i would be getting somewhere. What do you guys think of this system?

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Re: betting on deviant prices Check out mabels-tables. They've got bookies prices and results for all the English and Scottish leagues going back about 6 or 7 seasons. But you've obviously got to pay for them and as there are only prices from about 4 or 5 of the main bookies you're not going to get a huge deviation there. You'll be able to work out how many times a team of avg 4.0 won in that data though and any other stats you care to check out involving prices.