Weighted Possion Over/Under system

[Guest bcrazy]

Don't groan! I know its another over under system and probably one to thro away as I haven't done any back testing (excluding 3 selections of which 2 won last season). Basically I need the predicted probability given by the system to be at least 10% more than the odds suggest it should be. The reason I have called it weighted is because I put different importance on a number of factors to give me the teams avg goals. I know I gave up on this last season but that was because it was taking me too long- Ive made it easier for myself now. It may be a bit early in the season yet but I wanted to get it started so below are the selections (prices quoted from Betfair will be ones available to back at time of posting an with commission deducted (2 pts on each): Gillingham vs Milwall 88.32% UNDER @ 1.88 @ Betfair (available by layimg @ 2.08) Stoke vs Burnley 53.57% UNDER – NO BET Bournemouth vs Bristol City 65.80% OVER @ 1.95 @ Betfair Doncaster vs Hull 60.50% UNDER (no decent odds yet)

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Weighted Possion Over/Under system Good luck with this but if you are estimating the odds for the under in any game as low as 1.13 :eek I would suggest that you may need to review your estimation methods. I could only see them as low as that if perhaps they were playing with half-size goals. :D