AFL Rd. 21.

[TazaD]

No takers this week?...although I see Ash has some faith in the 'Roos. :ok Initially a couple of games jumped off the page at me, but I think my only concern this week will be the Eagles +39.5. West Coast's last 4 games have been statistically quite good, the main difference being that they have finally got something going up forward, av. a shot every 1.85 entries compared to 2.02 for the season! The possible inclusion of Hansen will help that even more... ...and that's where Hawthorn have fallen down all season. Allowing a shot every 1.78 entries...1.44 last week to Richmond. Eagles have been ok at home all season, just -4 I50's per game, now with a decent forward line shuold be dangerous. Hawthorn have travelled 3 times and snuck 3 wins, but all by 15 or less. Hodge out (kicked 3 last meeting)...and the Hawks 'only' won that last meeting by 57, despite WC being terrible on the road. Looking very closely at Essendon...and I still think they are the play, but a bit scared now. Got to within 30 points (only 5 shots)...and were in front at 3/4 time last meeting without Lucas and Lloyd...Flether and Hille both played big games tho... Dogs clearly struggling...bit of a whisper that Gilbee may miss... 40 looks like a lot to me, but the Bombers were pretty horrible last week... Guess it could easily blow out, but anyone would be mad to take the Doggies. Freo?? Head Doctors' opinions please!! I like them @ anything over +15.5 (which they clearly are)...but did they thrown in the towel last week? What happened?? :\ Coming off a year of close losses...specifically coming off what should have been a great win @ SCG, only to serve up that rubbish? Richmond are still the most over-rated sie to have ever played the game (besides Port late last year!)...36 I50's last week!! 1 less shot, but Mr. Wallace once again proclaims himself a genius... ...a big win @ WC is their only good win of the season imo...oh, and of course flogging Freo over there too in Rd. 4. :unsure Adelaide pumped them at the 'G without Burton and not a great record there... ...but Headland and Carr seem funny inclusions to me. :\ Going through the motions?? Melbourne a chance?? A team that has lost their last 7 @ AAMI by an av. of over 69 points??!! Na, no chance... Brisbane/Carlton could get interesting. Blues could be a chance in a shoot-out...terrible record up there aswell, but Lions aren't exactly flying themselves. Would have liked +20 or so...but could be a decent shout @ 3.00. Collingwood have won the last 5 meetings with Sydney...all as 'dogs!...but surely it ends here. Belted in clearaces last week, same I50's, just one more shot than an ordinary Port...won the contested ball, but may struggle to have that same impact v. Swans...esp. with Burns doubtful. Pies have won just 1 of 6 at the Dome since the start of 2007... Not great odds tho really...Should be close either way... ...actually, I think I can feel a <24.5> coming on... :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 21. Going to try a different tact this week starting with the Doggies to lead at HT by 1-12pts @ 6.50 (Sportsbet). Think Essendon, Swans, Adelaide will do ok as dogs, possibly West Coast too. No detailed analysis or anything for you though. Go Bradshaw :)