US Open 25th August - 8th September

[Arantxa]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Sorry to post something a little bit off topic but still related with tennis: Can anyone tell me how approx. bookies spread their margin?? If e.g. today Roddick v.s. Gonzalez is Avrg. 1,47 -2,64 with 6% Margin or 94% payout. Can one say 3% goes to the favourite and 3% goes to the underdog: Like 1/1,47 = 68% -3% = 65% -->Fair Odds would be 1/0,65 = 1,538 and 1/2,64 = 38% -3% = 35% -->Fair Odds would be 1/0,35 = 2,86 Or do Bookies normally spread their Margin 4% for the favourite and 2% for the underdog, because people like betting favourites?? Or is it different from match to match?? Has anyone worked for the "enemy" and is informed?:unsure Anyone has any idea of how that works? Thanks Arantxa

[Mr Intensity]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Not sure about that mate - I know there are a few theories about and other factors that would influence the decision so I don't think it's that simple.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Not having a good second week so far:unsure Murray v del Potro OVER 39.5 @ 1.83 Sportingbet. After the encounter these guys had in Rome, this should be a bit tasty. Murray cruised through against Wawrinka but Stan was very poor and the scoreline really flattered Murray. I think this will more like his mtches against Melzer and Llodra that were quite a struggle. Del Potro is still on an incredible run of wins, he looks to be struggling against Simon but then was clinical against the inexperienced Nishikori. I think Murray looks a tiny bit short for this, but if it gets fiesty (lol if!) and if it gets tight I'd fancy him to come through. Anyway, I'd definately expect 4 or 5 tight sets and this number is reasonable.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September PENNETTA @ 4.6 Betfair. I'm willing to take a shot against Safina here. She's shown signs of fatigue in her last two matches against Bacsinszky and Groenefeld, and there were some rumours going around of problems before the Groenefeld match. She's put together an incredible run this summer, but I'm looking at this match possibly like the one she had against Peer at Wimbledon, which was unexpectedly close and she got very emotional and lost it. H2H favours Safina strongly 4-0 including just a few weeks ago in LA, but I just think this could be the time for a big upset. Pennetta has done OK in this tournament, got a very impressive comeback win over Petrova then benefitted from some awful serving from Mauresmo. This one has a chance, and I wouldn't want to be backing Safina at short prices.

[goodens]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

Tennis
Event	J.M.Del Potro - A.Murray
Selection	Over 40.5 games
Strength	10/10
Date	03/09/2008
Bookmaker/Price	BetandWin @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	This is IMO the most balanced clash of the quarter finals. J.M.DelPotro showed good form in last months winning 2 ATP tournaments on hard surface at Washington and Los Angeles. But his mission was made easier by the absence of most of the top 64 ranked players who were competing at the Olympics. Still DelPotro had to compete against the likes of Andy Roddick, Mardy Fish, Tommy Haas or John Isner and he disposed of them in 2 sets with ease. Actually the only player who managed to take a set from the Argentinian in these 2 tournaments was Dudi Sela. In US Open he won 3-1 with Canas in the first round, and 3-1 with Belluci in the next round, in both matches he lost the first set but recovered well. The firsd round announce the greatest challenge for DelPotro so far as he disposed of Gilles Simon in 5 long sets to win the acces to the last 16. But it is no surprise as Simon showed in Toronto by defeating Federer on the same surface he is in good form. The last round was also the most easiest match for DelPotro so far winning in 3 short sets against Japanese player Nikishori. Now he has a difficult task as he meets the winner of the Cincinnatii tournament British player A.Murray. He showed good form winning that tournament, defeating in the process Karlovic and Djokovic but afterwards he lost inexplicabily in 2 sets against a low placed Asian player in the Olympics. In the US Open so far he showed some good skills, defeating in 3 easy sets Roitman in the opening round, winning a hard match against Llodra 3-1 and recovering from a 2-0 set deficit against Melzer in the third round. The 4th round he had an easy task defeating a somehow tired and out of form Wawrinka who didn't pose a problem to Murray. If I were to choose from the 2, given the current level they show I would go for DelPotro as he is more consistent has a good play from the back of the line and makes few unforced errors. Also when he is on top of his game he is hard to beat. Still I believe we shall see at least 4 sets in this game and hopefully more than 40 games.

:dude

[goodens]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

Tennis
Event	Roger Federer - Gilles Muller
Selection	Gilles Muller(+6.5)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/09/2008
Bookmaker/Price	BetandWin @ 2.23 (Back)
Reasoning	Roger Federer is past his good form. He didn't win a single Grand Slam tournament this year and US Open is his last chance. Also at the Olympics he failed to win a medal at the singles event, but won in the doubles with fellow compatriot Wawrinka. On the hard surphace tournaments he played this summer he lost at Toronto in the second round against Gilles Simon in 3 sets, and at Cincinatti he lost in the quarter finals against Ivo Karlovic also in 3 sets, but could have left the tournament even earlier if Ginepri would have won his serve at 6-5 in the second set after winning the first. So far at the US Open he didn't impress, winning in the first 3 rounds against opponents like Maximiliano Gonzales, Thiago Alves and Radek Stepanek isn't that big of a performance, and he had problems with Alves. In the last round he showed his true form, narrowly winning against Igor Andreev in 5 long and hard sets. Gilles Muller is a 25 years old Luxembourg tennis player, who had good results in youth tournaments but failed to confirm until now in the ATP ranks. This is his best performance at an Grand Slam tournament, and he fully deserves his performances coming from qualifycation and defeating big names in the process. Watching the match against Haas, and especially the first set I was thinking, it will be a 3-0 win for the German and what is this kid doing here anyway. I've got it right until the 3rd set when something snapped and suddenly Gilles was the one controlling the game. It ended 3-2 and in the next round another high rated player awaited. Almagro was his name, and again he recovered from 0-2 at sets and won 3-2 showing great fighting spirit. And in the last round he defeated Davydenko 3-1 at sets, a really impressing win if you consider the Russian played good tennis in the opening round and didn't lost a single set. So what to expect from this match... certainly more than a non-historic 3-0 Federer win, though I'm not entirely excluding the Swiss to win 3-0, he will have a harder time than the 129th place in the rankings for Muller shows.

:dude

[Mr Intensity]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Federer v Muller UNDER 34.5 games @ 1.83 Sportingbet. I've been waiting for the let down from Muller, and surely now on the biggest court against Federer it will come here. He's been phenomenal with massive comebacks against Haas and Almagro, then coming through a really tough 4 setter against Davydenko. Federer is coming off a tough 5 setter against Andreev where he didn't play that well, but I think this will be a better match up for him. I think he'll get this done in 3 sets and it should go under this number PAES/BLACK @ 1.76 Betfair. Paes is the best doubles player on court here and he should be able to dominate. He's in the final of the mixed as well as the mens and looks to be playing really well. I don't follow doubles that closely but I've always been impressed with Cara Black and she's the better women on show today. This pair have been extremely good so far and should be a class above Murray and Huber.

[stewartd14]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Excellent write ups Goodens. Good luck and :welcome to PL

[Abbo22]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September ANDY RODDICK @ 2.2 Bodog This is it boys and girls you've gotta be nuts not to go for Roddick tonight. The only problem will be whether or not Djokovic retires. He's banged up and almost got beaten in 5 sets by annual round of 16 beating toy Robredo. Djokovic is hurt and tired. He played awesome against Cilic but that match banged him up. That combined with playing all those matches in Beijing will catch up to him. Roddick absolutely throttled another Beijing star in Fernando Gonzalez. The books are giving this line so that people will bite at taking Djokovic. Ashe Stadium at night is Roddick's house the crowd will feed him extra energy which he thrives off of. Roddick in 4.

[Blackstock]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

ANDY RODDICK @ 2.2 Bodog This is it boys and girls you've gotta be nuts not to go for Roddick tonight. The only problem will be whether or not Djokovic retires. He's banged up and almost got beaten in 5 sets by annual round of 16 beating toy Robredo. Djokovic is hurt and tired. He played awesome against Cilic but that match banged him up. That combined with playing all those matches in Beijing will catch up to him. Roddick absolutely throttled another Beijing star in Fernando Gonzalez. The books are giving this line so that people will bite at taking Djokovic. Ashe Stadium at night is Roddick's house the crowd will feed him extra energy which he thrives off of. Roddick in 4.

I tottaly agree with You. Someone must be joking giving so big odds for Roddick to win. The main problem is whether Roddick would treat this match serious, but having in mind his previous games in this tournament, I can't see him losing to Djokovic who suffers being on court. He is week, slow and complaining on small injuries. I'm playing Roddick to win in Ladbrokes, where retirement does not count. Watching Djokovic playing in 1/8 and 1/16 I can't see him winning even 1 set. Roddick's serve will kill him and make him suffer more :tongue2 The choice is simple: Roddick to win @ 2.2 Ladbrokes Good Luck!!!

[wolves27]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September my bet is novak djokorvik he is classy player when in top shape, had days rest after illness i think today he will strike again, he seems to have nice style vs andy roddick truly expecting roddick take the 1st set but to lose 3-1 im not really good with these write ups but if novak plays half decent he is very big price vs a roddick who hasnt really impressed last 12months

[bet_man]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Can Muller's forehand give Federer's backhand big problem? Federer has very bad backhand with Muller's left Forehand can we see epic match :-) i did not watch Muller in this tournoment.How is his forehand? Thanks

[Mr Intensity]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

Can Muller's forehand give Federer's backhand big problem? Federer has very bad backhand with Muller's left Forehand can we see epic match :-) i did not watch Muller in this tournoment.How is his forehand?

I'd say his forehand has been good - I was impressed with pretty much every aspect of his game against Davydenko. I think his volleying is more important than his forehand in this match, but I think the occasion is the most important thing in this match,

[Charlie Wong]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

PAES/BLACK @ 1.76 Betfair. Paes is the best doubles player on court here and he should be able to dominate. He's in the final of the mixed as well as the mens and looks to be playing really well. I don't follow doubles that closely but I've always been impressed with Cara Black and she's the better women on show today. This pair have been extremely good so far and should be a class above Murray and Huber.

nice call Mr I,:clap you were right she was the better woman, mind you Paes smashed everything aswell.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Yeah how fit is Cara Black:tongue2. Have to say I was rather happy with that massive swing Jamie took on the volley on set point in the first set:lol:lol. Muller has been a bit good so far, need a meltdown:unsure

[Charlie Wong]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Fedster grinds out 1st set 7-6, 4-4 in the second on serve.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Just need Fed to take the 3rd 6-4 or better:hope Anyone playing the Djokovic/Roddick match? I've been thinking about it all day and just haven't got a clue:lol:lol

[Mr Intensity]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Damn it Roger:sad

[gary tennis man]

US Open 25th August - 7th September nice one on the doubles mr i my tip 2 day as to be novak to beat roddick 8/13 is massive every think novak is tired and as got problems but when the big game comes novak comes

[Abbo22]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Thanks for making me look like an asshole Roddick. WOW anyone catch the interview after the match the crows booed Novak sooooo loud. I think this will play into the match against Federer, although I still see Novak beating Fed and losing to Rafa in the final.

[EdJohanson]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

Thanks for making me look like an asshole Roddick. WOW anyone catch the interview after the match the crows booed Novak sooooo loud. I think this will play into the match against Federer, although I still see Novak beating Fed and losing to Rafa in the final.

I totally agree. Djokovic looks like he is so tired sometimes but when he is motivated he can beat anyone on hard. Fed is out of form. He is still great player but he didn't impress against Muller. I believe that Djoko will repeat great tennis and reach final.

[Datapunter]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Dinara Safina v Serena Williams: Serena 10/10 @ 1.40 Betfair US Open Womans Winner: Serena 5/10 @ 1.90 Betfair ( personally intend to trade this after the match, your own call ) Saw her match against her sister. Doesn't matter if she's in front or behind she gives every point the full load. Based on that; she absolutely wants to win this one and nothing is going to stop her.

[wolves27]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September i dont wish to be rude and people on here who made selection know hell of lot more than i do but people were backing a-rod at 2.2 vs novak was crazyyyyyyyyyyyyyy i thought roddick had decent chance but not 2.2 (bascially coin flip chance) i wouldnt backed roddick anythink under 3.2 but then im not saying im good here because i dont get to many spot on lol

[stewartd14]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

i dont wish to be rude and people on here who made selection know hell of lot more than i do but people were backing a-rod at 2.2 vs novak was crazyyyyyyyyyyyyyy i thought roddick had decent chance but not 2.2 (bascially coin flip chance) i wouldnt backed roddick anythink under 3.2 but then im not saying im good here because i dont get to many spot on lol

Think it was more because of Djokovic's physical and mental state. He was shattered and had a lot of injury problems before hand. Didnt see the match, so dont know if that showed but I think that was the reason people were backing Roddick. :ok

[Charlie Wong]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September E Dementieva v J Jankovic Dont think there's much between these two ladies, i expect a close game with hopefully plenty of games, have taken 5/6(general) for over 22.5 games in the match, Dementieva often gets ahead in her matches but does have a tendancy to wobble, especially with her serve, Jankovic on the other hand is a battler and will fight to the end.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Can't be bothered looking into the matches today - hopefully will be able to just watch and enjoy. Car broke down this morning in the pouring fooking rain and had to push myself as no other moron was out in the rain - hamstring tight as a fucker at the moment. Waited 2 hours for the AA guy to come then managed to get it going myself:@:@. Got home and internet connection has been very unstable so can't even play cards:lol:lol. Fook the summer:wall:wall:wall

[goodens]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

Tennis
Event	A.Murray - R.Nadal
Selection	A.Murray
Strength	10/10
Date	07/09/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 1.61 (Back)
Reasoning	The match was intrerupted in the 3rd set at the score of 3-2 for Nadal who has a break advantage. The first 2 sets were easily won by Murray, who outclassed the World No.1 with his annoying style of playing of returning every single ball in the opponents court. The first set ended 6-2, pretty quickly, and in the second they reached 6-6 and he won in tie-break after having at a moment 5-0 in the tie-break. Also Murray won more easily his own serves. Nadal never really preffered thistype of surface, he never won a Gran Slam tournament on hard, and right Murray looks more than he can handle. I saw the match the British player played against Del Potro and is seemed his calm and patience is inexhausting. Nadal alo doesn't posses quite a powerfull serve and Murray can return most of his services back. The odds are a little bit high for Murray, as he showed in yesterday he is the better player and already is 2 stes up.

[Spooner]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

Sport	Tennis
Event	Murray v Nadal
Selection	Murray
Strength	10/10
Date	07/09/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 1.66 (Back)
Reasoning	Resumes at 21:00pm tonight. State of play: Murray leads 2 sets to 0, 6-2 7-6 2-3 in the third set when rain stopped play with Murray a break down. Nadal will do well to come back from this, Murray playing some good tennis and this isnt Nadals favourite surface. If this was at the French Open I would say yes Nadal has a good chance of coming back, 1.66 for Murray to see it through is a great price from the status of the game.

[yves]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September i am also considering taking murray, however in the third set he has already been broken so i think he will lose the third, so i will place a bet at the end of the 3rd with of course (much) higher odds, and if murray comes back and wins the third well too bad for me ^^

[kevshat]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September

i am also considering taking murray' date=' however in the third set he has already been broken so i think he will lose the third, so i will place a bet at the end of the 3rd with of course (much) higher odds, and if murray comes back and wins the third well too bad for me ^^[/quote'] The odds aren't likely to change all that much as that break of serve and the likelihood of Nadal winning this set will have been factored into the price.