lorenzo. Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Hello! My name is Lauri and I'm new here. Actually new in posting and making a thread, because I have been around here and read this forum for 2 weeks or so and I had an account here last year sometime, too. I have been betting for years now, but with small stakes and without any systems therefor 8-9 months ago I realized it's pointless and quit. But enough of that - it's not interesting :D 2 weeks ago I planned to start again, but in a different way, so...: The system is actually very simple and I have no doubt that some people in this forum have already tried this kind of thing. Basically I lay underdogs (who's form is poor) against big favorites (who's form is good). The system do not have very certificate bet selection process, but I will choose the bet if the favorite has 6-0-0, 5-1-0, 5-2-0, 5-0-1 etc and underdog is on (more or less) losing streak. Favorites must play mainly at home, but it's not a rule. I know, I know, one losing bet and it's a big loss, but I will try anyway :D Staking plan: Again, I do not have a very clear staking plan. When the system would be Backing teams, then I would stake 10% of the bank, but in laying I just stake around 10% of my current bank, but when I have a strong feeling about some team then the bet may increase or decrease. Oh, it's paper trailing at this point. I actually started it yesterday with Brazil Serie A (4 bets, 4 wins and I doubled the starting bank :ok :lol), but will include all the big leagues. And I think I will go from paper trailing to real life pretty soon. I will start with yesterdays results if I may? Because I have already calculated things in Excel and it would be uncomfortable(takes more time) and pointless for me to keep track in 2 worksheets when there is no need to. I hope you understand. Other than that, I will place the bets here way before the kick off. OK, let's get started (I bet on Betfair obviously) Brazil Serie A (20th August): Bet no. 1: Lay Figuirense to win against Cortiba @ 11 to win 10€ :clap (Cortiba won 3-0) Bet no. 2: Lay Sport Recife to win against Vitoria @ 12,5 to win 10€ :clap (0-0) Bet no. 3: Lay Cruzeiro to win against Botafogo @ 4,6 to win 5€ :clap (Botafogo won 1-0) Bet no. 4: Lay At. Paranaense to win against Sao Paulo @ 13,5 to win 20€ :clap (Sao Paulo won 3-1) Starting bank: 50€ Total bets: 4 Winning bets: 4 Losing Bets: 0 Strike rate: 100% Current bank: 92,25€ Profit/Loss: +42,25 (Betfair 5% commission included) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 21, 2008 Author Share Posted August 21, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs One bet today also. Brazil Serie A (21th August): Bet no. 5: Lay Vasco da Gama to win against Portuguesa Sao Paulo @ 3,45 to win 5€ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs Good luck, Nice start. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whycantistayawayfromdogs Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs maybe im being stupid here surely your bank has to be larger than your liability. You liability that day was like 400+ right? so ur bank would need to be at least that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs Well i spotted that too.... ...Maybe just missed a 0? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 21, 2008 Author Share Posted August 21, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs Good luck' date=' Nice start. :ok[/quote'] Thanks, mate. :hope I actually don't know, it is logical tough, yes. But since it is just paper trailing it's not a big problem at the moment. Just registered for Betfair few days ago and had some problems understanding how this laying works :D lol. But it's all good now. It's a friendly forum and people helped me to understand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 21, 2008 Author Share Posted August 21, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs In that case I can start in another way. Namely, I will bet 1 bet at a time. So I must not start with so much money. I just could not afford that :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kardi Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs You wouldn't even be able to place the bets one at a time. You would only be able to lay Bets 3 & 5. You would need a bank of 250€ just to lay bet 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 21, 2008 Author Share Posted August 21, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs You wouldn't even be able to place the bets one at a time. You would only be able to lay Bets 3 & 5. You would need a bank of 250€ just to lay bet 4. I understand it now. And like I said in the previous post, I would start it then with one bet at a time. That way I can start with 50 euros, too, right? If I win of course. -edit- Oh, yes, I didn't consider that some bets had very big odds. But ok, the idea is still the same: for starters with real money I will bet on games where there are smaller odds. Or make smaller bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 22, 2008 Author Share Posted August 22, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs One bet today also. Brazil Serie A (21th August): Bet no. 5: Lay Vasco da Gama to win against Portuguesa Sao Paulo @ 3,45 to win 5€ :sad (0-1) Pff, Vasco won 1-0. Starting bank: 50€ Total bets: 5 Winning bets: 4 Losing Bets: 1 Strike rate: 80% Current bank: 60€ Profit/Loss: +30,00 (Betfair 5% commission calculated) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 22, 2008 Author Share Posted August 22, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs Starting bank: 50€ Total bets: 5 Winning bets: 4 Losing Bets: 1 Strike rate: 80% Current bank: 60€ Profit/Loss: +30,00 (Betfair 5% commission calculated) Current bank 80, not 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 23, 2008 Author Share Posted August 23, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs Ok, let's continue. EPL is young and the forms are not clear yet, but still: English EPL (24th August 17:30): Bet no. 6: Lay Hull City to win against Blackburn @ 7,6 to win 10€ :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 23, 2008 Author Share Posted August 23, 2008 Re: Laying Underdogs Ok, let's continue. EPL is young and the forms are not clear yet, but still: English EPL (24th August 17:30): Bet no. 6: Lay Hull City to win against Blackburn @ 7,6 to win 10€ :clap (1-1) And one more from EPL: Bet no. 7: Lay Fulham to win against Arsenal @ 8,2 to win 10€ :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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