Backing/Laying high odds (dogs/horses)

[Guest Tito 10]

What's the best way to stake when backing and laying at odds varying from 3.5 to 10.0? This is what I've been doing so far, using 1 pt as 1% of bank: Back trap 4 @6.0. my stake 1 pt. profit 5pts. liability 1pt Here I'm staking 1 pt for each 'back' at high odds of around 4.0 to 10.0. So fixed stake is the name of the game here. Lay trap 6 @6.0. backers stake 1 pt. my potential profit 1 pt. liability 5pt. With the lays, I've always set the backers stake at 1 pt, equal to what I back with. So fixed profits. --- Is this the best option to take? Problem is when i lay at 10, staking 10% of my bank on what is about a 1.1 shot. I don't like doing this as it ties up too much of my money at any one time. I like to scan the races in the morning and then get all the backs/lays out of the way and check the results in the evening. It only takes me a few dogs to lay and I've got most of my bank tied up at one time. Also, I hate losing on these lays, 10% of my bank gone is too much. So, do i back at fixed stakes or fixed profits? If so how much? And should i lay at fixed stakes or fixed profits? And again, how much should i be staking? Also, is 1% too high when backing at average odds of 5.5? I think it is but someone might say otherwise. Another thing, is this covered in Joe's book? Await your educated replies.

[Guest madmick]

Backing/Laying high odds (dogs/horses) G'Day mate a few quick pointers, based on my opinion/experience (and a read of Joes book ;-) Fixed profits is a better route to take than fixed stakes, especially if there is any great variability in the odds. Kelly staking would advise that you attempt to win a percentage of your bank on each bet equal to your edge/yield. Lets say this was 5%, then laying at 5.5 you would be looking to make 5 units profit (assuming a 100 point bank) were the bet to be successful, which would leave a liability on that bet (neglecting commission) alone of 22.5 units. The problem here is that Kelly assumes a series of individual bets with time to adjust stakes etc between bets. Also, there is an implicit assumption that the value stays between certain limits (otherwise you might be required to stake more than your bank!). My advice would be to look at the total amount of bets you are likely to have a in a day and then estimate a worst case scenario for the liability. Set this equal to your pain threshold (which might be some fraction up to all of your bank) and then divide to get the average stake. E.g. lets say you will lay 20 dogs at average odds of 6.0, and you want to have no more than 50points liability. That means staking to win 0.5 points on average per dog. In summary, the answer to your question depends on 2 things - how many lays you want to make, and how much of your bank you want to have engaged at any one time. Hope that helps M.