Draws (Warning Poss Drunken Ramblings)

[Mike]

Hi Guys firstly apologies if the following makes no sense but im very slightly pi$$ed :rolleyes :beer I have been thinking of a way to trade on football not gamble therefore taking profit as soon as it becomes available using the Draw as follows. There are two options as to what i think could be profitable Options 1 I lay the draw at 3.35. Now during the game i either need an early goal so the price increases if it doesnt then the bet would obviously become bad for my bank balance. So this is not my favourite Option 2 I lay the draw at 3.35 then back the draw at 3.30 this would leave a loss of 1.01 * stake then minus stake so a 50 unit bet on this would leave a loss of 0.75p if there was an early goal or something to increase the draw price and not allowing us to lay off. If there wasnt a goal for 15-20 mins the draw would drop allowing us to take a no risk profit. I tried this with the Arsenal Boro game and it worked well Option 1 is the most risky as it requires at least 1 goal and long enough between the goals to allow us to back to lock in the profit Option 2 has well i think the best chance of profit but an early goal may mean a small loss Why does everyone think to the above is it possible? is it worth it? and does any of it make any sense whatsoever? :\ :b Any comments good or bad would be most useful jt :D

[Guest Eboman]

Re: Draws (Warning Poss Drunken Ramblings) First : thinking about these kind of strategies when you've had a few pints is asking for serious trouble. :lol Now, assuming you are sober again when you read this ;) , there is value in the strategies you mention. The key element here is discipline. From my own experiences with betting in-running and trying various strategies i can say i've made a substantial run in profits from laying the draw and then locking in a profit when a goal is scored. With a bank of 1000 euro i made anything from 10 to 300 euro profit 4,5,6 matches in a row taking a loss when the match ended 0-0. Unfortunately on a couple of occasions the match i was betting on went in exactly the opposite direction i wanted/expected it to go several times during the match resulting in major losses. In fact the bank, all profits and the starting bank, was wiped out in 3 matches. :banghead That was a hard lesson to learn :cry Don't worry, it was a year ago and i got over it :lol Advice/comments: - Never, ever do this kind of betting when drunk, that's a sure way to disaster. - Stick to the golden rule : never gamble with money you cannot afford to lose - Be totally disciplined. Think carefully about the strategy to use before acting. Then stick to that strategy. Biggest pitfall is changing your strategy as the match goes, you end up nowhere, if things go weird like matches ending in 3-2, you will get to a point where you feel like drowning, if you don't die of a hart-attach first that is ;) Don't mean to dis-encourage you, just don't want you to end up losing like i did. Good luck. :smokin