maths, markets, finals (be quick!!)

[Guest mr onemore]

I've never actually tried this, but it's time to have a go. I welcome your comments on my argument's logic - or lack of:) Tomorrow is the African Nations Cup Final, Tunisia v Morocco. At betfair, I'm interested in two markets. The overall winner market, and the match result market. I think it is possible to predict a trend, bet it, then lay it before the game at no risk. Here goes... As I write (Fri, coming up to 10pm GMT), odds are Overall Tunisia 1.81 Morocco 2.20 £80000 traded Match Tunisia 2.7 Draw 3.1 Morocco 3.1 £8000 traded First thing, the most volatile market is going to be the match market - odds will change more, market traded so far is smaller and so a bet alters the ratios more. Just going on the odds given, approximate %chance of results is Overall Tunisia 55% Morocco 45% Match Tunisia 37% Draw 32% Morocco 32% The ratio of match Tunisia to Morocco is 37%:32% or about 53% to 47%, so Overall Tunisia 55% Morocco 45% Match Tunisia 53% Morocco 47% Let's go back to odds, though the Match 'odds' are relative values excluding the draw just for now. Overall Tunisia 1.81 Morocco 2.20 Match Tunisia 1.89 Morocco 2.13 I say that the match market will move to more closely fit the overall market. (The £80000 traded in the overall will be layed off in the match market) That means that the offered odds of 1.7 on Tunisia in the match market should drop, and opposite for Morocco. Conclusion: I'm backing 100pts on Tunisia at 1.7, and then going to lay off before kick off. Does this make sense??? For the record, I think Morocco are going to win this one - I've posted in International Matches for anyone interested. To those that know? This is going to be a very infrequent type of bet!! Can I enter this into the systems league, just for fun?

[Guest mr onemore]

????? Doh.........confused myself anyway... I'm taking Tunisia at the offered 2.7 (NOT 1.7, that would be suicide!)... sorry:(