Help from a mathmetician

[dave]

If I am betting on true odds of 4/1, what are the probabilities of different losing runs. ie chance of losing 5 in a row, 10 in a row, 20 in a row Could you let me know how to work it out too? Thanks

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Re: Help from a mathmetician I work it out like this. For a 3/1 true odds shot chances of not winning = 0.75 so chances of not winning 5 in a row is (0.75)**5 or 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 which equals about 23.7 % ie. a fairly low %age chance of losing 5 in a row. For a 4/1 shot it's 0.8 ** 5 = 32.8 % approx losing 5 in a row For a 4/1 shot it's 0.8 ** 10 = 10.7 % approx losing 10 in a row For a 4/1 shot it's 0.8 ** 15 = 3.5 % approx losing 15 in a row For a 4/1 shot it's 0.8 ** 20 = 1.15 % approx losing 20 in a row.