Football Predictor 4.6

[Guest Whopper73]

It's been a while since I posted my system. If any of you can remember I had a prediction system about this time last year but had a bizaar staking plan using doubles to maximise any profit (there was none in the end). Anyway, since then I have been revising and tweaking the system to try and get some edge and I think I have succeeded. So far this season I have a 4.16% edge but that is only form 127 games, so not amazingly conclusive. The back testing was successful (from the last 3 complete seasons results) but I haven't included the results as it records slightly differently to real life. The back tester does one game, refreshes the league then does the next game. What actually happens is a weekend worth of fixtures are taken, then the league refreshed and then the next weekends set of fixtures. This could possibly affect the results due to the way the system calculates the results. I am posting the tips here because I want to proof the system properly and making it public stops me from cheating/ kidding myself :b You are all welcome to use the tips if you wish :ok The system basically works on form over the season, over the last few games and whether home or away (depending on whether the team is home or away - obviously). The results are then compared to odds from the bookies (Bet365 - just for consistency) and then a final filter is passed over the prediction to fine tune it to squeeze out the edge! Please feel free to post any questions/ observations at any time :D

[Guest Whopper73]

Re: Football Predictor 4.6 For this weekend (7th/ 6th Feb) Wolves v Arsenal @ 1.40 Everton v Man Utd @1.61 Metz v Monaco @ 1.90 Lyon v Guincamp @ 1.28 Bayern Munich v Hannover @1.28 Vitesse v Feyenoord @1.72 Milan v Perugia @1.14 Porto v U Leiria @1.14 The was 2 Spanish matches, but I have not managed to get a egde from that division yet this season, so I will avoid betting until it settles down (if it ever does!) Starting bank will be 100 points. A maximum of 25% of the bank will be used to stake for any one group of fixtures. The 25% of th ebank will be equally divded between the fixtures to bet with each fixture having a maximum of 5% of the bank (was that clear?) All odds are taken from Bet365