AFL Rd. 18.

[TazaD]

Come on you lot! Can't be still sobbing into your collective Real McCoy and generic cola's after the great Bomber explosion last week? ;) :lol I've taken two bets so far...broke the golden rule, took a Essendon/Geelong/St. Kilda treble @ 1.75 for 2 units. I see Bombers blowing out a bit again now with maybe Lucas out, but I thuoght 1.24, 1.22 and 1.16 were silly! I've got "Geelong -anything" written on my little sheet in front of me...have to think they cover the -30.5 easily. Won the last meeting (this year) by 30, in wet, windy conditions at the MCG...had twenty five more I50's!! :eek Won by 70 and 160 last year...the 26 goal pumping was their last meeting at the Dome. I just can't stress how lucky Richmond have been in the last 2...beaten 2 bottom teams and lost to 5 goals to Carlton in their last 5. Tempted to see if I can find some 60+ prop. Essendon are flying. Only th extremely unfortunate Richmond loss in their last 6...won't start slowing the game up like Kangaroos last week. [3 minutes into the last quarter someone put the ball above their head!! :wall ] Melbourne flat out suck. The win against a poor travelling, extremely flat Brisbane glosses them up a bit. But they were painful last week and could have easily lost every quarter like they did the first against a more attacking team. Forget last week, Saints are still a solid team at home in the dome. Port won their GF v. the Crows and now are already resting up for the summer! No P. Burgoine, Chad Cores, Tredrea, Salopek, Chaplin... Port have the worst defense in their last 4 games (1.72)...it's 1.82 on the road as it is... Saints scored 119 in last 2 games in Melbourne, shold kick another decent score here, and hold Port to not much. The other one I'm on is Sydney/Doggies under 180 (2.14...with TAB <150, 150-160...etc.) I personally think 2.80 is a whopping price for the Swans...but they are struggling for personel here. They are missing 7.5 from the last meeting (2008 SCG) with Goodes, O'Loughlan, Playfair and Buchanan out...there were only 91 I50's and 46 shots in that game anyway. The meeting before that was @ Canberra (as this game is), was 157...and Swans have 9.5 missing from that team! (Schnider kicke 3) Take out the game v. a god-awful Port (worst D remember! :D) and the Dogs haven't topped 25 shots in their last 4 (@ 23) and have the 4th worst attack in that time @ 2.03.) Swans allow just 20 shots per game @ home this season (in NSW), but I do think they'll struggle to score themselves. Friday Night...numbers suggest Collingwood can keep it close, if not pull the upset...but tough to look passed the round 6 pumping...that's the ony thing scaring me off tho. :$ Like the look of Adelaide/Carlton either under 24.5 (1.97) Blues will find it far harder to score here than they have recently against some poor teams (Swans away, Dogs in dome), but clearly Crows are struggling to score too...haven't topped 25 shots in their last 6 @ 20.6. Will be all out efense from the Crows I suspect...won the first meeting by 30, but just 5 more shots...3 of the previous 4 meetings ended under 20 point margins, with just a Crows smacking as 1.07 favs in the middle! Low scoring, Crows will find a way to keep it tight, 'cause I don't think they can win by more than 4 goals! Brisbane/Roos is a bit of a toss up, imo. Odds probably right. Kangas can't score away from Vic...Lions in a decent slump, and Roos won last meeting here (Gold Coast) as big 'dogs. May look for a Freo/WC over given the recent history of low scoring games...you'd thnk Freo would win, but @ 1.50?! :cow er, no!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Didn't see it in writing anywhere?? but I'm assuming you took Essendon SU (like a man) Taza?:D Guess it's time to admit Collingwood have their problems. Thing about Essendon, as you say, they play attacking and the 24.5 might not be at all difficult and would imagine Hird can't be too far off. Gotta also remember Melb got a stale Bulldogs to get within 31. Still kicking myself :wall on Carlton LW over the matter of stale dogs. What about 1.63 Freo? I give that an er, no also. I guess if Freo do run second it does open things up for one of the other runners. Porplysia fitness? There's gotta be a bet in this game somewhere. Both got away with stale opp LW. Am thinking Blues SU @ 2.40 but that 24.5 thing does look interesting. Doesn't look to be too many 100-goal kickers in that crows forward line. Can't go wrong taking the 2.95 North under 39.5 (I'm sure there's plenty of knuckleheads reading who are senseless about "Can't go wrong"). The sore Brisbane playing some inexperience.