Some ideas to make a profit

[Osesame]

For the purposes of this topic the following definitions are probably most accurate for betting purposes STRATEGY A plan of action resulting from strategy or intended to accomplish a specific goal. A scheme, program, or method worked out beforehand for the accomplishment of an objective an elaborate and systematic plan of action SYSTEM An organized set of interrelated ideas or principles ALGORITHM A step-by-step problem-solving procedure WHERE TO START 1) You need an idea for the sport or whatever event you wish to produce a strategy for. e.g. It seems obvious to me that more home wins in football will occur at low odds than high odds. Questions) 1 At what range of odds will you get best yield? 2 Will this be the same for all leagues? 3 Does the yield vary throughout the season? 4 If 3 is true does a similar pattern apply over several seasons? 5 Are there any teams that do not follow a general pattern over several seasons? ( note: this is one area where a change of manager may have a long term effect.) 6 should you include recently promoted/relegated teams? and many more could be added. Next step is to answer the questions by back testing, this can be long and tedious. Have a think about the above and make any comments,suggestions or requests for info and then I will reply with answers and some more ideas.

[Joe]

Re: Some ideas to make a profit Questions) 1 At what range of odds will you get best yield? I suspect it will be in the region from evens to 3/1. At very low odds, it's clearly impossible to do better than a fixed level, i.e. if your bets are at 1.2, then a 100% strike rate can do no better than 20% yield. On the other hand, backing the high odds will be doomed long term because of the poor value (due to pricing bias). The best long term yields in my tipsters league are about 20%. Sports Betting's golf service is 20% at odds averaging around 40/1 (although they are usually each way). However, this has been falling steadily for some time now (which is no suprise to me). The same is true Premium Betting Golf. The other long term performers with similar yields are BookieBasher and Betting Investor, where average odds are in this 2 to 4 region. I suspect that very few will be able to perform at this level with these odds because even at 3/1, the pricing bias is really working against you. 2 Will this be the same for all leagues? Probably not 3 Does the yield vary throughout the season? Of course - basic statistics 4 If 3 is true does a similar pattern apply over several seasons? Same as 3 5 Are there any teams that do not follow a general pattern over several seasons? ( note: this is one area where a change of manager may have a long term effect.) Doubt it 6 should you include recently promoted/relegated teams? Depends on your system and many more could be added. Next step is to answer the questions by back testing, this can be long and tedious. Have a think about the above and make any comments,suggestions or requests for info and then I will reply with answers and some more ideas.