Deviation Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Hi there, I took a break from trying to find my own system, and looked on Sports Punter to find some inspiration and to get things kick started. I chose ffallen as he had the longest, most stable record. I now realise that may have been a mistake, as he is too well known by the bookies and I can't get on many of the good bets. However I've opened up accounts with most of the bookmakers he uses, deposited to a few, and turned over only some of the deposit. So now a % of my bankroll is stuck there, and I will lose many of the free bets/bonuses unless I start using these accounts. What I'm really after is a bit of direction to save me going down the wrong road yet again. Trust me, I've already done my fair share of that, and I'm not just talking about betting! I understand people won't want to give away their secrets on a forum, buy maybe someone could PM or email me, or just give generalised advice? Will I be able to make a steady profit from ffallen's tips, or am I better off following lesser known tipsters? Do the latter still have a solid record on SP, or is following them more of a risk? I have been reading this forum since the beginning of the year and have learned a huge amount, but very little in this particular area. I would really appreciate some advice. Thank you very much for your time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please not just the actual bets, but also a good staking plan is needed. type in 'staking plan' to the main search tab (above in the blue bar between 'new posts' and 'quick links') to find plenty of threads on that. otherwise, its a case of judging whether you have enough value in your bets - following someone blindly is dangerous, even if they are really good. try and use your own knowledge of sports to judge whether you agree with the tipster first, then judge whether the value remains in the bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please Don't think you'll get very far following ffallen. He takes so many early prices and obscure markets and as you say is very well followed the prices move quickly and move quite a lot. Do you prefer following someone blindly or would it not be better making your own decisions? Spent some time so that you really know a sport well, understand the mathematics of gambling and try to turn a profit that way?:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please Don't think you'll get very far following ffallen. He takes so many early prices and obscure markets and as you say is very well followed the prices move quickly and move quite a lot. I agree. I haven't looked at his selections recently, but he certainly used to specialize in finding value in weak markets. And fair play to him, he's extremely good at it! But the prices will move very quickly in these markets when anybody realizes that there's value and places a bet of any size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please Yeah I think if they changed the rule of needing £200 available on Betfair to having to be able to get £200 on anywhere he wouldn't do so well:lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please not just the actual bets' date=' but also a good staking plan is needed.[/quote'] I've calculated the staking plan as follows: Period: 02-01-2008 to 11-06-2008 strike rate: 0.559191 avg odds taken: 1.85101 profit: 102.155 units bets: 2323 Standard deviation = sqrt ( (1-.559) x .559 x 2323 ) = 23.93 3x Standard deviation = 71.79 Expected wins = .5592 x 2323 = 1299 Wins @ 3x standard deviation = 1299 - 72 = 1227 Losses = 2323 - 1227 = 1096 Worst case units lost @ 3x deviation = 1227 x .85 - 1096 = 53 So I need 53 units for useable bankroll, about 60 for cashflow, i.e. enough units at each bookie to cater for a typical day so it doesn't take ages to get each bet on, and some spare units to cover the delays in moving money between bookies. Of course this is based on the bets ffallen makes, and the bets I can get on will differ, so I would recalculate this when I have a reasonable number of my own bets to base it on. I think I've done all this right, but I would be most grateful if someone could cast their eye over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please With very little knowledge of sports wouldn't you be better off investing your talent and expertise in other fields. It is very apparrent that successful gamblers such as Harry Findlay have a great love of sports and a vast knowledge. Although he has a large team of experts now you can guarantee he is very switched about the sports he gambles on. Betting blindly on tipsters with successful records is a recipe for disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please Nice to see that you've put a lot of thought into this and not just blindly looking to follow someone for an easy buck:ok Just had a quick look at some of ffallens bets today. On Stan James I've seen 4 matches and the handicap has moved by 1, 4, 4 and 1 points which is quite a lot and I think it probably makes the one's that have moved by 4 points pretty poor bets now. ffallen has a solid 5% yield which is exceptional given his turnover, but it also means the strike rate has to stay good as a small change will mean it becomes loss making. I'm not sure if the bookmakers look at what he's doing. I'm sure it's more likely that it is simply a lot of people following him and the weight of money moving the market quite a bit. Of course if you have the time you could see if you could get on quickly after he posts, just for a couple of weeks and see how close you can get to the prices he gets. I'm sure you'd do really well if you could get on consistantly at the prices/handicaps he does! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please With very little knowledge of sports wouldn't you be better off investing your talent and expertise in other fields. It is very apparrent that successful gamblers such as Harry Findlay have a great love of sports and a vast knowledge. Although he has a large team of experts now you can guarantee he is very switched about the sports he gambles on. Betting blindly on tipsters with successful records is a recipe for disaster. I hear you, Steve. Don't you think someone that's good at maths and computers can use statistics to make a go of this business, though? Nice to see that you've put a lot of thought into this and not just blindly looking to follow someone for an easy buck:ok No, that wouldn't give me any sense of achievement anyway. Just had a quick look at some of ffallens bets today. On Stan James I've seen 4 matches and the handicap has moved by 1, 4, 4 and 1 points which is quite a lot and I think it probably makes the one's that have moved by 4 points pretty poor bets now. I'm paper testing/simulating at the moment, and I "got on" all 4 of those at the original handicap.:) ffallen has a solid 5% yield which is exceptional given his turnover, but it also means the strike rate has to stay good as a small change will mean it becomes loss making. Wouldn't a smaller yield be more easily affected by a change in strike rate? BTW he has never lost in any month since records began in Jan 2007. The worst he's done is to break even for a month! I'm not sure if the bookmakers look at what he's doing. I'm sure it's more likely that it is simply a lot of people following him and the weight of money moving the market quite a bit. But the odds/line has moved by the time he has posted the bet to SP, before any punters have seen it. Of course if you have the time you could see if you could get on quickly after he posts, just for a couple of weeks and see how close you can get to the prices he gets. I'm sure you'd do really well if you could get on consistantly at the prices/handicaps he does! Yes, that's what I've been doing. I was hoping to get some advice from someone that's already been there and done it, to save me months of potentially wasted time. Am I likely to get that here, or is it considered a cheek? Thanks again for all your help, everyone. It is much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please Yes a smaller yield would be effected much more. But at the sort of prices he operates at, the strike rate only has to change from say 57% to 54% to actually start making a loss - and I think this would happen if you are on average taking a couple of more points on the handicap. The lines could well move before he puts the bets on SP because he is placing his own bets - if he hasn't been banned yet:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please How long does it take to get on this site? I tried to register about a week ago but says 'account still to be activated' or was my application just crap like my job interviews?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted August 2, 2008 Author Share Posted August 2, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please This link should give you all the info you need: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f25/sports-punter-65281/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please For my tuppence worth I used to think I could do equally as well from just following really great tipsters who post up their knowedge but it's not that easy. For a start you are constantly waiting for someone to post and unless you want to put your life on standstill it's a total pain. You think, oh well nothing for today I guess, so go and do something else only to come back later and find you missed 3 winning bets. Of the course the next one which you managed to place will lose.This makes you irate but of course you have no right to be. Prices are rarely as good by the time you manage to get on them if somebody with any reputation or knowledge has put it out to the betting public. And then when you lose, although you don't want to, it can be easy to blame the source of tip in your head. I may never tip the scales with my own stuff but at least I know that win lose or draw I'm not relying on anyone else. It's a whole lot less stressful to feel that you are in control as opposed to waiting on somebody else. good luck either way though:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted August 2, 2008 Author Share Posted August 2, 2008 Re: www.sports-punter.com - some advice needed, please For a start you are constantly waiting for someone to post and unless you want to put your life on standstill it's a total pain. Yes, I certainly know what you mean but I'm quite happy to do it 24/7 if it gets some money rolling in to start with. Then I can look for my own system in the longer term. Prices are rarely as good by the time you manage to get on them if somebody with any reputation or knowledge has put it out to the betting public.Are the lower prices still profitable though, or does one have to follow the lesser known tipsters to make it work? Should I leave bets where the price has moved quite a bit? Will I need to find the answers to these questions myself? It's a whole lot less stressful to feel that you are in control as opposed to waiting on somebody else.I'll be a lot less stressed when I start to generate an income! good luck either way though:okCheers, you too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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