Bookies profit margin

[Guest mikkav]

If I calculated the average return on a particular league (blind betting) at odds from intervals 2 - 1.3 eg 2,1.9,1.98 etc should it give me an approximation of the bookmakers profit margin at these odds. And should I be concentrating on these odds as the profit margin would(should) be lower.I have a rating system for EnglishPr,1,2,3 Scottish Pl,1,2,3 and some of the European leagues.I'd like to narrow down the field as such and not be betting on stupid prices even though my odds might be lower the profit margin on the outsider may be just too high to over come.I'd really appreciate some advice on this.Thanks

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Bookies profit margin The overround on a particular event is in theory the bookies (gross) profit margin so a 108% book has an overround of 8%. The bookies (bar a few mavericks like Pinnacle) bet between 107% and 100% on pretty much every league. The books I’ve read seem to suggest that more of the over round is actually on the long shot and not the favorite in football. I’d suspect that if you did a blind betting exercise like you suggest that your yield would probably increase (or more likely your negative yield decrease) steadily between bands, as the bands got lower. You would however still be unable to make a positive yield I would think just by doing this but you might minimize your loss. I think this exercise for football would give a good idea of the favorite-long shot bias in action.