In Running - A Model

[Guest mr onemore]

It's the close season for me - and time to dust off a few ideas. One thing I've wanted to do for a long time now is to produce a decent model for 'in running' betting on the football. I feel there is plenty of value around in these markets - especially after a goal is scored and the market reforms. I'm not sure how punters 'know' what odds to set after a goal - and my feeling is most just use intuition. If there are charts and tables around, I'd love to see them if anyone knows. In the meantime - here is my own effort. I have created a mathematical model to simulate the 90 minutes of a game of football. The table below recreates the home win expectations of a match played between two average Premier league football teams. My model allows me to create tables for matches between teams of all abilities - I use six parameters for each team. (It is quite laborious cranking out the data for each team which is what has delayed action on the project for sometime.) Unfortunately, I have no data to back test and check the accuracy of the model. I don't know if any PL members have collected such in-running data, but if so it would be much appreciated to see. I'd like to have any comments about this model, punters with in-running experience might like to check their 'theories' against my projections. I intend to select matches in the new season, produce a table for the match like the one below, and test it out during games. I suspect that my initial parameters used to model each team may be slightly out (otherwise I'd just use them to back the team for value at the start of the game!!), but if during the game the market seems to skew and reform in the wrong place, there may be ways of learning to use the table for value. If the model is fairly sound - there are some massive side bonuses. I can easily create expectations for over-unders, and total goals for the in running markets too. Any ideas of how to back-test this model or just general comments most appreciated. Simulation of match played between two Premier league teams with average profiles and abilties home team goal advantage         plus 2        plus 1        0        minus 1        minus 2 0 mins                        0.48                15 mins        0.87        0.68        0.44        0.17        0.05 30 mins        0.9        0.69        0.42        0.14        0.03 45 mins        0.92        0.73        0.37        0.09        0.02 60 mins        0.96        0.76        0.31        0.06        0.01 75 mins        0.99        0.86        0.22        0.02        0

[Guest mr onemore]

In Running - A Model The table hasn't quite come out right, (0.48 should be under 0) - how do I post a table on here??? Thanks.