Stakes for laying?

[dave]

I've been laying horses recently, mostly between Evens and 10/1, but I'm a bit confused about which stakes I should be using. I should point out that most of these lays are successful. Should I lay to a fixed liabilty (like I would if backing), or should I lay to get a fixed profit?

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Stakes for laying? I lay 80% of my bets Dave to get a fixed profit although there is a maximum stake I will make so sometimes my fixed profit is reduced (although this is not often). I don’t think there is necessarily a right or wrong answer to this as stakes laying or backing tend to be what your risk preferences are most comfortable with. Fixed profit is obviously more risky at higher odds than fixed stakes.

[Datapunter]

Re: Stakes for laying? Just doing some papertrailing on the horses myself where i find the same question. Both are quite valid, so its a matter of choice. Main thing is the distribution of odds and where in that distribution most of the winners are. Here is a spreadsheet i'm currently playing with. Laying stakes spreadsheet I've entered a number of horses with a Lay price, then i calculate the total liability when staking 1 unit per bet, then i calculate the average liability and apply that to fixed loss staking. This is so both methods have the same liability overall. Then i compare the result of the 2 staking systems. Here's the calculation just so its clear what Fixed profit staking and Fixed loss staking is : Fixed profit staking. ( always the same profit if a bet wins ) Odds : 1.8 Stake :1 Winner = +1 Loser = -0.8 Fixed loss staking. ( always lose the same amount if the bet loses ) Odds : 1.8 Stake : TARGET / ( odds - 1 ) = 1/(1.8-1) = 1.25 Winner = +1.25 Loser = -1 If comparing the 2 then i want to compare a similar liability so the TARGET for Fixed loss staking would in this case become 0.8 Odds : 1.8 Stake : TARGET / ( odds - 1 ) = 0.8/(1.8-1) = 1 Winner = +1 Loser = -0.8 Apply this to a series of bets and you can compare the 2. So far i found that the more losing bets you have at low odds, so odds on favourites who win their race, best go with Fixed Profits. But if the lower odds produce enough winning bets, so favourites who lose the race, best go with Fixed Loss Staking. I've only got 1 days results and one days expected result so cannot say anything yet. And if you go LIVE don't forget to include commission, can make a lot of difference.

[dave]

Re: Stakes for laying? Thanks for the responses, very interesting. Obviously I asked this question because I'm not sure about how to do the maths, so I've got another question. Would it be useful to use fixed profit for the lower odds, and fixed loss when getting to the longer priced lays?

[Datapunter]

Re: Stakes for laying? Yes, it all depends on the spread of odds and where your winners/losers are and what strike rate you get. So there is no single definite answer, it varies case to case. You can determine for yourself a pivot point, like any odds above 2.5 and i will apply Fixed loss staking, any odds below and i will apply Fixed profit staking. But then you get to the point of how big should the fixed profit stake be ? To big and you reduce the profit, to small and you receive little for the same liability. Confused ? i can imagine In the end it comes down to you putting your bets in a spreadsheet and trying out different things. Generally speaking low odds are best done with Fixed profit staking, and high odds with Fixed loss staking (same as level stakes). In other words when Laying at big odds use Fixed loss, low odds use Fixed Profit. Take that as a starting point and then try some variations.