AFL Rd. 15

[TazaD]

Once again the sceptics and mind freaks come out on top over us number crunchers ay... :lol Well, the least you can do is to help make some sense out of this week for me...I was way off on a couple...actually think the books have set some pretty smart lines this week. I was hoping for Carlton +15 or so...surprised to see just about evens! But, some interesting numbers here, not least of which Carlton is second only to Geelong for I50's in the last 4 games!! :eek (av. 58) They've topped 55 in 5 of last 6 actually...and they had 54-53 last meeting in rd. 2 v. the Saints. The problem being that Carlton seem to be the one side St. Kilda can ever score against. They've won the last 10 meetings...9 as favs, but 1.66, 1.70 and 1.75 in there...and they've av'd 140 ppg in those 9 games!! (inc. 125 in rd. 2)... ...but how do you compare that to their current scoring ability (sans Gehrig I guess...)? They've had 25+ shots just once in their last 9...av'd 89 ppg in those 9, and just 81.8 if we take out the Melbourne game. You could give them the benefit of playing some tough games...but 10.5 v. Freo in the dome and not getting the ball over half way in the last 10 minutes was a debarkle! (Although, no Dal Santo, no Hayes...) Just can't come to grips with this one...Realsitically, I guess the odds are fairly right... lol...actually, you can scratch all of that! I thought it was at the Dome, but MCG it is...Carlton win this in a canter don't they?! :loon (tbc!)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Adelaide have to be a show, right? (Waits patiently for mind-set lesson ;) ) Crap away form, but 2 good wins at MCG (+11 and +14 I50's)...Are Collingwood much better than Carlton or Richmond?...teams that have beaten them 3 of 4 times since Rd. 19 last season... Last 4 stats very even really, Crows forward line letting them down, but have topped 111 both games at MCG. Still don't think the 'Pies are going all that well...always beat Sydney, everyone gets close to Dogs in the Dome...Crows have played 2 of the top 3 and a trip to Brisbane. Certainly equally as tough. Crows have won 5 of last 6 meetings...3/3 in Melbourne (all Dome) Has to be some value in the 3.25...+15.5 or so... I can only assume Essendon are drifting due to Fletcher being out...Brisbane are just 2/6 away from home, and give up a shot every 1.85 entries...which falls to 1.77 if we take out the West Coast game, who just can't score. Essendon starting to look a force again with Lloyd and Lucas getting back to some form, Hille/Laycock working well...sure their last 3 wins have been against some poor opposition, but Brisbane's last 2 wins have been at home v. Freo and Crows, belted by Dogs and lost to Melbourne! Will wait for selected teams (any chance of a Mal Michael recall?!!), but unless there looks to be a total mismatch for Brisbane up forward, I'm struggling to see the Bombers any worse than evens! I suspect Port should be favs...lost last 3 at home by combined 25 points. (In fact, just 1/7 at home this season, but combined losses = 60 points!) Kangaroos road form has been atrocious, 1/5 with a 'home' win on the Gold Coast v. Eagles...av'd 79 ppg and haven't had any more than 24 shots. Kangas just 44 I50's per game in last 4, better only than Melbourne... Tough to commit tho. Really interested in the Swannies @ 3.25ish. Hawthorn have been ordinary in their last...well, 7 really, despite a couple of big wins. They've won the last 6 meetings, 3 @ MCG, and last one as dogs and without Hall. (At SCG tho...'dogs?! :eek ) The main concern is their road form tho. Just bad. Av. just 41.8 I50's per!...having said that, they've only lost to St. K in round 1 by 2 points and an unlucky 42 loss @ Geelong (Again, without Hall) The positive is that in last season's win @ the MCG, they had just 34 I50's!! (to 48) and still won...in a game where Kennelly went off injured early, and Hall had just 2 marks and kicked a point! No reason for me to think that it won't be close...the points could come in vary handy I suspect. Dogs win (no Davey now either), Cats win...Richmond likely win, but as favs without Richo?! :unsure