mongoose Posted July 6, 2008 Share Posted July 6, 2008 This may well be old news or covered elsewhere,but I thought why not post. I was on holiday during Euro 2008 and was speaking to a Greek guy in a bar and he told me about a system he uses for football. You need a few bob to do it tho. On the Euros he bet every game to be a draw. Most odds were around 3/1 you have to double your stake everytime you lose. so he started with 10 Euros lost Then bet 20 lost Then 40 Lost Then 80 Lost Then 160 Lost Then 320 Which was the first Drawn Game France v Romania Return 1280less 320 is 960 Profit staked 310 so 650 to the good after 6 games. Then start again,I was thinking on doing it for one team next season to see how it would go. I think it would have to be Arsenal/ManU/Chelsea/Rangers or Celtic to get the same odds. Any thoughts or am I looney! HH Mongoose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted July 6, 2008 Share Posted July 6, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway It's been said many times before.............any staking system that involves doubling your stakes after a loss is bound to come a cropper in the end!!!!!!!!!!! So it doesn't matter what the selection process is, totally irrelevant. :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted July 6, 2008 Share Posted July 6, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway basically your talking about martingale. google it. my advice stay away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mongoose Posted July 6, 2008 Author Share Posted July 6, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway Cheers Nimrod.....So I am a Looney !!! :lol I am gonna follow it fictitiously this season anyway HH Mongoose:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted July 6, 2008 Share Posted July 6, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway mongoose - if you really want to follow this through, do some research and find teams/leagues that have higher %'s of drawn matches. Its ultimately doomed to failure as one bad run = a huge loss! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway I've done this before but instead of doubling my stake I multiplied by 1.5 each time. So long as draw odds are 3.00 minimum it works. It works best on tight games obviously, so the Euro's would have been good. Also play-offs are good. However it should be noted that it is Martingale and can get easily out of hand. I also did a lot of back-testing a few years ago and some of the results were very disturbing! :lol Good luck if you go for it. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mongoose Posted July 7, 2008 Author Share Posted July 7, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway Cheers Hodgey and the rest! I realise that the odds need to be around 3/1 for it to have a chance,Perhaps Champions League may be where to execute it! HH Mongooose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway Cheers Nimrod.....So I am a Looney !!! :lol I am gonna follow it fictitiously this season anyway HH Mongoose:cheers Mongoose, wasn't meaning to be rude, but it really is a non starter. Sure, you might make money for a while, but eventually you are going to hit a bad run and all your profits will disappear. Seen it happen too many times!!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway It's been said many times before.............any staking system that involves doubling your stakes after a loss is bound to come a cropper in the end!!!!!!!!!!! So it doesn't matter what the selection process is, totally irrelevant. :wall I hesitate to say this, as I certainly don't intend to defend Martingale type staking plans. But so long as you're making bets where you have an edge, Martingale is not bound to come a cropper in the end. It's just a lot (in fact, an awful lot) more likely to come a cropper than a sane staking plan. The aim of a staking plan should be to balance profit and risk. If you're making bets with positive expectation (and if you're not, then no staking plan will make money in the long run), then Martingale involves a huge amount of risk for a given long-term rate of profit compared to sensible staking plans, but not an infinite amount of risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway Yup, take on board what you say Slap, but any staking plan is BOUND to succeed if you have an unlimited bank and have no limit imposed on any stakes. Because of an assumed limit on your bank and also the difficulty in placing high stakes then I stick with my original comment.....It is doomed to FAIL. At the end of the day, any system/selection process that does not show a profit to level stakes is not worth maintaining. Sure, you might have to tweak things every now and then, but it is a lot easier on the nerves!!! As always, respect to slapdash :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway Because of an assumed limit on your bank and also the difficulty in placing high stakes then I stick with my original comment.....It is doomed to FAIL. Yes, Martingale fans tend to ignore the fact that when you double up enough times that your stakes are in the tens of thousands of pounds, then you'll find it difficult to get anybody to take your bet. Although if you have a bank large enough to place bets that big, then this actually reduces the risk of Martingale ...it at least means that in practice you'll never have to place bets of millions of pounds! :lol But if you start with bets of £10 and are prepared to place bets of over £10,000 once you've doubled up ten times, it does rather beg the question ... if you're prepared to bet £10,000 after you've lost thousands, then WTF are you doing piddling around with £10 bets to begin with? :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassius Marcellus Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Re: This may be covered elswhere,but anyway Then start again,I was thinking on doing it for one team next season to see how it would go. I think it would have to be Arsenal/ManU/Chelsea/Rangers or Celtic to get the same odds. Any thoughts or am I looney! If you're going to back then for a draw and doubling up, you may as well lay them at the short odds they will undoubtedly be. No team, as far as I'm aware, goes through the season winning every game. Start one 'pot' for each team and stop when they lose or draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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