Premiership Value Betting System

[Guest PremiershipBetLay]

Expected Win Chance This system is based on the value principle, not on predicting the results of a match ie am I being offered better odds than my calculated outcome. The values of the expected HW/D/AW chances are provided by calculation from the difference in points between the home and away teams. The points started at 1000 for all teams at the beginning of the premiership, both for home and away, and the home team contributes 7% of its points, and the away team 5%. A winner takes the other teams points, and the loser having its contribution subtracted. Drawing teams split the points, which can lead to a team doing well losing points. After 3 home and 3 away games a further model using poisson distributions and values derived from the won/lost/for and against split home and away will be used to 'tighten up' the whole prediction edifice. I'll be using betfair to back the best odds/chance and lay the worst odds/chance of HW/D/AW - for the purposes of this column I'll be using a flat staking system, although I'll actually be using fixed profit/loss staking - so it'll be 'in production use'. Testing Thanks to Joseph Buchdahl's excellent betting datawww.football-data.co.uk/ I've had 4 years of odds to play with, and test the above systems. As I'm using betfair I've fudged the odds closer to no overround, ignoring the likelihood that there is a higher profit margin on long odds for now. Over 4 years, the system has returned around 50 points a premiership season for 1/2 pt bet and 1/2 pt lay for each match in a season - ie approx 50/380 or 14%, after allowing for betfairs 5% commission. I've tested for different overrounds, different longshot odds, and tested the results for particularly weak odds where the models fall apart, and hopefully corrected for them. The 2 models work in different ways, and appear to offer improved results when combined. I checked the chi test of goodness of fit, and it probably does. Unknowns I was unable to find any odds for betfair historically, so I don't know how the odds on betfair compare with those of traditional bookmakers, although the limit must surely be where arbitrage is possible between the two. I've no idea whether the long odds profit margin is greater than normal, and whether this occurs on betfair. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, as is written on every financial instrument sold to the general public. Whether I've found a relationship in the 4 years data that means nothing when the new season starts....:eek Past System It would be unfair not to mention the last system I data mined - not very useful, and your account is just a means of keeping score:o First instalment on Friday - and hopefull I'll keep the stas up to date as well, and also read the FAQ on systems so I know the terminology to use etc. Reason for using a System Otherwise I'm totally and utterly useless at so much sniffing out any value in the odds, and unfortunately, I've the records at betfair, and sporting index to prove it.:cry Ah, another season of fame and fortune awaits, and I'll be able to give up my dull job, etc, etc :ok Reality can hurt:loon :lol

[Guest PremiershipBetLay]

Premiership Value Betting System Any suggestions etc gratefully received. Losing money because of flaws and cockups isn't my idea of fun, and there's every chance I've made some.