Speed data

[Cookie2001]

Morning guys, Picked up a bit of Turftrax data today which I scraped off their website which might suggest a chance at Wolves this afternoon: 3:00 - This one looks like it's between Monte Major, Montezando and Hurricane Hen. However their best efforts seem a while ago (hence seller). The Turfrax sectionals reveal that Hurricane Hen and Montezando will be the likely front runners with the quickest opening fractions over track and trip. Take a look at this table which I skimmed off their site:

Pace setter

Horse Fraction Result Days ago 1 Hurricane Hen 25.04 1/10 105 2 Montzando 25.26 1/11 77 3 Montzando 25.33 1/11 109 4 Night Prospector 25.41 2/7 49 5 Hurricane Hen 25.45 3/4 117 6 Baileys Outshine 25.57 6/8 192 7 Night Prospector 25.64 5/11 77 8 Monte Major 25.65 2/13 226 9 Monte Major 25.69 2/6 126 10 Percy Douglas 25.72 6/11 152 11 Percy Douglas 25.77 8/11 156 12 Monte Major 25.79 7/10 114 13 Percy Douglas 25.81 7/10 182 14 Baileys Outshine 25.97 9/9 136 15 Baileys Outshine 26.07 2/7 77

Monte Major has by far the fastest finish of the contenders today so you'll expect Hurricane Hen to front run try and get a good lead and try and run it out of his rivals. Here's the fastest finishers:

Fast finisher

Horse Fraction Result Days ago 1 Monte Major 13.03 7/10 114 2 Monte Major 13.22 2/6 126 3 Montzando 13.33 1/11 109 4 Monte Major 13.50 2/13 226 5 Baileys Outshine 13.51 2/7 77 6 Baileys Outshine 13.72 9/9 136 7 Montzando 13.75 1/11 77 8 Hurricane Hen 13.98 1/10 105 9 Percy Douglas 14.07 7/10 182 10 Night Prospector 14.10 5/11 77 11 Hurricane Hen 14.15 3/4 117 12 Percy Douglas 14.27 8/11 156 13 Night Prospector 14.36 2/7 49 14 Baileys Outshine 14.46 6/8 192 15 Percy Douglas 14.48 6/11 152

With this being a seller, it's interesting to see how the weights shake up. Hurricane Hen races off 9-4 today strangely 6 pounds cheaper in the handicap having come off a win last time out in a similar event at Wolves back in mid-March. That day he won off 8-12 so carries 6 pounds more today. We'll also need to take a look at the draw and this throws up a few more clues. Here's the 5f draw bias at Wolves: Obviously it's a low draw bias and Hurricane Hen comes out box 3, Monte Major 5, and Montzando 8 so this clearly favours the former. Breeding-wise, Hurricane Hen is clearly bred for the sprints with his sire delivering the following breeding bias. This chart shows you over what distances the sires progency have won. Clearly favours the sprints. So in summary then, I think that everything points to a punch up between Hurricane Hen and Monte Major with Hurricane Hen looking to get a lead on the latter knowing that MM has a better finishing kick worth about two or three lengths. In-running I'll be looking for this lead to develop but if it doesn't approaching 1.5F out, I'll be backing MM and laying HH. Might even have them both in a reverse exacta. HH 7-4 generally, MM 9-2 best with Stan James (11:15am). Thoughts? Cookie

[chrislloyd2001uk]

Re: Speed data good write up....i fancy one or the other haven't decided yet tho