Bet to nothing - fatz the way to do it

[Fatz]

First a word of warning - this is all strictly experimental ! I'm just opening this thread in order to 1) test a theory. 2) keep a record. 3) keep myself disciiplined. The roots of this lie in this thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f75/drifters-steamers-60488/ . My own admittedly limited research suggests that if you were to back steamers shortly before 'off-time' you would break even. Therefore it stands to reason that if steamers can be identified earlier there is profit to be made. My aim in this thread is to try to identify horses which have the potential to shorten in price and hopefully make a profit by backing them at an early price and then laying-off at betfair SP, in effect getting a bet to nothing or a free bet if you like. There's no such thing as a free lunch as they say and some will drift from their early price and so I'm going to use a stop loss of 20% above price taken to limit the impact on the betting bank when a horse drifts from it's early price and wins. Hopefully this won't happen too frequently as the betting market is pretty efficient and the steamers should win more often than the drifters, but when it does at least the loss will be limited and I'll take it on the chin and move on. Right the Staking plan. Starting with a theoretical bank of bank of £1000 I'm going to take 10% of the bank and divide this by the odds on offer. For example, if the bank is £1000 and a horse's early price is 4.0 the stake would be 100/4= £25 and a stop loss of 20% will be placed in case the price drifts (£25 lay at 4.8) in which case we will have a liability of £20 if the horse wins. Using the staking plan the liability if a drifter wins will always be 2% of the total bank which is quite conservative. If the horse's price shortens as I hope it will, the stop-loss bet will be cancelled before the race and a lay placed at betfair SP thus getting a bet to nothing. Total bank to be recalculated on a daily basis, after deducting the top commission rate of 5% off winnings for illustration purposes, and the following day's stakes calculated from the new bank. Sounds complicated I know but it isn't as bad as it first seems and once we get up and running it should become clear. A 'fly in the ointment' will be non-runners since the early price taken will obviously be subject to reduction factors and adjustments will have to be made to compensate. As I said before this is just a public trial and other issues may arise. Please feel free to make suggestions or to make constructive critizism. Fatz.

[Fatz]

Re: Bet to nothing - fatz the way to do it 2.45 Pont Flying Time £9.10 @ 11.0 5.15 Pont Aussie Blue £12.80 @ 7.8 5.00 Wolv Willie Ever £23.80 @ 4.2 8.25 Cha Cha Cha £24.40 @ 4.1