AFL Rd. 12.

[TazaD]

Some tough games this week... My main focus is in Sydney, where Bookmakers, public and media alike all seem to be totally disregarding the Swans' home/away form. Completely different team at the SCG...av'ing over 55 I50's per game and over 30 shots!! Have won 12 of their last 14 at the ground...the LOWEST win has been by 27 points, with the av. win being around 45!! They've topped 94 points in 13 of the 14 and av'd 132 in their last 5!! St. Kilda are one of the worst travelling Victorian teams, beaten by 46 @ the Gabba by a comparable (to Sydney) Brisbane, and 21 @ Port who are rubbish...lost 3 of 4 interstate trips last year by av. 32. And, like last week, we can compare 2008 games...Sydney beat WC by 5 last week away, but 62 at home (ANZ)...beat Port by 9 away but 68 at home...lost to St. Kilda in Rd. 1. at the Dome by 2 points...whch is why the generous line I suspect. Sydney -21.5 for sure... ...and also looking at a total. Just by mucking around a bit with the TAB numbers, you can get 2.85 for over 180!!! (under 150 was 2.00!! :eek ) Quite obviously influenced by previous head-to-heads...not one of the last 7 meeting have been over 168...however, just ONE of those games has been at the SCG, way back in 2006. Just 2 of the Swans' last 9 games @ SCG have been under 180...they kicked 11.23 v. Freo, and somehow managed to lose to Essendon... :unsure And, just 2 of the Saints' last 10 games have under 180...Melbourne went 179 in the Dome, and 143 on a crappy old night @ Port, without Riewoldt. I had 187 down as my limit, so I don't think I'll bother waiting...the 2.85 look very good odds for over 180. Not sure there's a hell of alot else I like team-wise...Will seriously consider Port @ +27.5 of higher... Otherwise, it's all totals, I think. Essendon v. West Coast...Interesting to see Essendon come into favs now...has everything to do with WC's road form I guess, but they have played @ Adelaide, Sydney, Bulldogs, Pies (4 of top 6) and Kangas at the Gold Coast, which they barely lost. Essendon got lucky v. Carlton (-7 I50's) but somehow managed to hold up defensively...lucky v. Crows to even get close (-14 I50's and 10 less shots)...otherwise haven't got withing 5 goals of anyone in last 10 games. They've also lost their last 5 at the Dome by av. 56! Looking at an under...one thing the Bombers have done is slow things down. Season I50's are 48-63...last 4 is 39-53! Big difference. Still, if Eagles get out much passed evens I'll be tempted. Dogs are about right at 1.50...Brisbane been very good lately, but good draw. 5 of last 7 @ home, and 1 away v. Carlton. Had a dream the score was 53-30 @ HT Doggies way! :unsure ...remember thinking at the time how low scoring it was...so will probably take the over ;) :lol Can a 1-10 team be favs?...over a team in the 8 no less? Probably :\ Kangas have only beaten their opp for I50's 3 times all season...Melbourne, Richmond and Sydney @ home... have allowed over av. 60 in their last 4 (-12)...but agaisnt some good teams I guess. Freo have had some close ones at home agaist very good teams, but still have no idea how to win!!...Might be worth taking the Roos + any points you can get! :D Kangaroos are bad travellers...to everywhere except Freo! Have won 3 of last 4 over there, with the one loss by 35 as 3.75 dogs, but had the same amount of shots! (13.6 to 6.13) Tough game. Crows/Hawks looks tough too. Looking for an under, but doubt I'll get a good number... Adelaide super defensively at home...allowing just 19 shots @ 2.26, but it's been pointed out a few times now how soft their draw has been. Not one win agaisnt a top 7 side, and already lost to Hawthorn by 40 this season... ...but, Hawks haven't been great lately either. Got BELTED last year @ AAMI (raining?), and still have their problems defesively. The two best defensive midfields (Crows at home) should lead to a tight game... ...maybe Hawks with a slight advantage with Burton out? This one's over my head! Port have a pretty good record v. Geelong (except in the one that counted of course! :rollin) only lost by 9 at home this season, won by 5 last year @ Skilled... Geelong's scoring has dropped right off, and now Scarlett out makes them a bit thin down back...goes without saying the Cats will have a BIG midfield advantage, but Port do tend to score when it gets there. Have lost just one game by more than 20 points so far... Tough to pick Port, but probably won't be a big margin. Hoping for a decent under in the Melbourne/Rich game too. Much like the Bombers, it seems Melbouurne have decided they can't win games going one way. 48-64 I50's, back to 42-55 last 4...Richmond have dropped right away too...52 on the season down to 45. (inc. a measly 51 v. Essendon). I don't think Melbourne can win...Richmond look like that same old middle of the road team...not upto the top 8, but better than the bottom 4. Melbourne defense is still horrible, and lack of forward options cotinues to hurt. Tiges won by 49 last season (+10 I50's, +14 shots), and their 2 games in the Dome this year have bee pretty good...a draw v. Doggies (although a little lucky), and a 3 point loss to Saints (horribly unlucky!) Anyway, no-one in their right mind is taking Richmond @ 1.33... Collingwood are flying, Carlton aren't! No idea how they won the first meeting, but they have troubled the 'Pies lately. Not going anywhere near it! Good Luck gentlemen. :cheers

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 12. IMO Fremantle v Kangas is the betting match of the round (although I do bet quite differently to everyone else). Freo always stay competitive, can't win a ******* game, but really should be able to get up over the Roos. The Roos always stay competitive, scoring on the lower side of the scale. Most Subi games this year have been decided by less than 3 kicks. Really the only question is do I go Freo 1-24, Freo 1-19 or Either team U15.5. I favour the latter the most at present and should pull the trigger soon. Also favouring the Dogs to win by 20-39. Brisbane have been going well but the Doggies should have too much, and they might pull away a little late on. That being said, I feel 20-39 is a harder bet to win as it's not always as strong a reflection of the game as the bets I normally take are. Someone can talk me into it?