Epsom - 07/06/08

[mowgli77]

Epsom 4.00 A lot of talk this week about New Approach running in the Derby and I'm convinced it won't win. I don't think it will get the 1m4f and I feel the way it runs will inconvenience it and set the race up for one held up just off the pace with a late burst. I also feel it is impossible to train a horse for the Guineas, Irish Guineas and Derby, it can only peak once and that time has been and gone. I like the look of Tartan Bearer, have loads of respect for Stoutes horses in this race and Moore has chosen to ride this one. It only beat Frozen Fire by the shortest of distances and starts at around 6-1. Looking at the horse it beat I'm stunned to find that available at 22-1 with a legend like Mick Kinane on board. Both these horses are improving and have only had 3 races to date. I don't think a Dante runner up has ever won the Derby but I'm hoping the record books will be re written today with Frozen Fire. I don't feel there is one stand out horse like Authorized last year, any number of these are open to improvement and we could see another shock big priced winner. Murtagh has decided to ride King Of Rome but its best form is placed in a Gp3 which shouldn't be good enough to take this. Frozen Fire has only had the 1 race this season and will come on leaps and bounds for that and the extra 2f should be fine. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW Frozen Fire 22-1 SkyBet

[mileni4uk]

Re: Epsom - 07/06/08 Ha! Just wrote this in the Derby thread .. Valuescope went for Tartan Bearer and I heard many good things about the horse. But why the hell is Frozen Fire 22/1 and Tartan Bearer 6/1? FF was beaten only a neck and had only one run this season. Knowing how shrewd trainer is, I am going to have a bit of this 22/1. Murtagh went for a horse that doesn't look capable of doing it and FF can definitely improve and run a big race. This Derby looks wide open. If Tartan Bearer is 6/1 then Frozen Fire should be no more than 12/1,14/1. Mowgli to tip it, well this is the confidence boost I needed :ok