The 'really good' Tipsters experiment

[Datapunter]

I was browsing the Racing Post the other day when i came across the Tipsters Naps table. And i had a good laugh at the guy's at the bottom. Not that i'm so good at picking winners but they certainly are not. So i thought maybe i can use this to make a bit of money by laying those selections. So i'm running a little experiment and so far i've come up with a small set of rules. I'll be twisting and tweaking a bit more the coming days and then i'll go for a paper trail of a few weeks. = Look at the Racing Post Tipster Naps table from bottom to top. - Eliminate double selections and horses with a forecast price of 20-1 or above. ( Possible profit at level stakes not worth it. ) - Apply fixed loss staking of 5 points to the remaining 20 selections. ( it is a LAY system so staking to lose 5 points is the same as level stakes when using a BACKing system ) Results so far : using Racing Post Forecast prices Aug 24 : +06.06 Aug 25 : +10.64 Aug 26 : +08.75 using Betfair prices just before the off Aug 24 : +26.15 Aug 25 : +24.93 Aug 26 : +15.28 So bets placed using forecast prices until liability was 100 points meaning 20 bets. Now i would start placing bets until i reach a liability of 100 points at fixed loss of 5 points so 20 bets BUT the actual selections would depend on the available price. If a horses price moves above 20-1 i'd skip it and move to the next selection. Any early thoughts anyone ?

[dave]

Re: The 'really good' Tipsters experiment Makes sense that you do better with the betfair odds than the forecast odds because people will overbet these NAPS, even though half of them are useless. The only way to find out is to keep posting and see what happens. Stick the selections on here everyday and see what happens