AFL Rd. 6.

[TazaD]

Tough week ahead really, imo... Essendon midfield has been pummelled since rd. 1. They allow the second most I50's (58) behind Melbourne (59)...next worst Kangaroos @ 52... The loss of Lucas is starting to show up forward too...just one game they've converted at better than 2.00...a rediculous 1.46 v. Carlton... ...having said that, Collingwood have only stopped two teams that can't score in Richmond and Freo...Bris, Carl and Kangas have all scored freely...and their forward lie has dried right up. Collingwood numbers are remarkably similar to St. Kilda's...so I guess it sets up a lot like last week...Collingwood get a HEAP more of the ball forward, and the Bombers try to stay in it with good efficiency and conversion. Collingwood really did pump Ess. twice last year (but for some inaccurate kicking) and statistically the gap has widened in just about every area! Was hoping for closer to -10ish...16 is probably a bit rich... You'd think Collingwood, but of course all the while hoping not... Not sure Geelong are going as well as they seem either...Ablett's lone 10 minute hand v. Sydney...the same I50's and just 2 more shots v. Saints...only won by 30 v. Melbourne and 9 @ Port... Freo just can't score tho...second worst conversion to WC...massive value on them to be lowest socring team @ 7.00. Freo haven't scored 100 in 6 games @ 83...Geelong not allowed 100 in 8 games @ 79...last 3 meetings (2 @ Subi) Freo have scored 72, 69 and 52. Maybe some rain about in Melbourne over the weekend, but who challenges? Even WC will score v. Doggies...Melbourne scoring better in what should be a free flowing game in Brisbane...Carlton a chance (but I reckon I'll be on an under in that one anyway)... Carlton/Adelaide...under? :D ...Well, surprisingly, Carlton are really struggling to score! Some remarkably straight kicking has inflated their scoring big time. Only av. 26 shots per game @ 2.02... ...but Adelaide midfield has disappeared last 3 weeks, getting just 41, 42 and 41 I50's...They are scoring well when it gets there, but an improved Carlton mid and D could still make it tough. I think we all might have been a little high on the Crows...just one good win v. a terribble WC to their name...but form and Carlton don't mix either. Odds about right...hopefully total won't be. Dogs will thump WC. Have been fav's just once in their last 10 meetings, won by 51 @ Optus in 2002. Dogs had 5 more I50's and 5 more shots v. a surprisingly good Tigers...not to mention the Richo "mark" and subsequent 12 point turnaround...With 4.10 in the first quarter the game should have been over anyway. WC's 2 trips away have been losses by 62 @ Sydney and 72 @ Adelaide...nothing I've seen suggests that the Crows are much better than the Dogs. Dogs have most I50's for the season...have had the most shots on goal, against the team that has had the least shots, but leaks like a seive (1.83). Dogs -25.5 happily. How are Port fav's here? I know Ash said last week they were playing well but losing...I tend to disagree...they're just losing! :lol Even v. the Eagles they nearly melted down... They haven't had 50 I50's yet in a game this season, they have the second worst D to Freo @ 1.66, so I'm not sure how they can be favoured over anyone atm! Saints much better last 2 weeks...same I50's and just less shots v. Geelong...+17 I50's and +16 shots v. Ess last week...they look a LOT better with Charlie Gardiner in for Gehrig, and are playing well enough defensively allowing just 24 shots per game. They might give up a few more here, 'cause Port are scoing alright, but just can't stop anyone down the other end. Should be a high scorer...will be looking at the over...but definately taking +9.5 for the Saints.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Centrebet are betting on Round-17 for those looking to get on.

1. HAWTHORN	2.70
2. GEELONG	1.45