AFL Rd. 2.

[TazaD]

Well, traditionally a bad week for me personally...combined with some tough games...combined with some tight odds (Tiges only 2.20 ish...Hawks about evens)... ...looks like a disaster waiting to happen...:spank Brisbane? Odds don't help out much...Pies won big in Brisbane last year, only for the Lions to return the favour in Melbourne...but, mainly due to Brennan going totally mad. Pies midfield was pretty much smashed by Freo (minus Haselby obviously)...49-52 I50's in the end, but was a huge margin at 3/4 time. But, Brisbane did have just 43 last week, admittedly against one of the best defensive midfields in the comp. Pies D was made to look good with some horrible Freo delivery, but a shot every 1.58 entries for them...not sure if that was good Collingwood efficiency, or a bad Freo back 6. (Who allowed 1.80 on the road last year) Too tough for me to call I think... Tempted by Melboure +18.5...sadly enough. Dogs have won just 3 of their last 10 at the MCG by >18...Richmond (with 3 LESS shots!!), Collingwood in a must win final to play Rohan Smith's 300th in Perth, and Richmond again, with just 2 more shots. Melbourne beat Adelaide and Collingwood at home last season (and Carlton x2), lost to Pies by 11, Kangas by 1, Port by 5, Freo with just 5 less shots and pumped by Rchmond. Beat Dogs by 42 last season (Dome...with me in it! :puke) with Dogs as 1.35)...Dogs won first meeting by just 6 as 1.45 favs. Possible let down by Dogs...has to be some form of upswing by Melbourne! Total should be a goer tho, given a fine day...Both D's look pretty bad. I know the books will set a high total, but I'm willing to go pretty high. :ok Eagles have a fantastic record v. Crows @ AAMI, but Burton didn't play last year...Crows had more I50's, and only 1 less shot. Not sure either team's form is all that good (end of last year, and Rd. 1.)...would have to be leaning to the +6.5 simply because it's going to be close either way...too close to call? Hawthorn forwards should have a big day against Freo, but will it get there enough? As I mentioned Freo mids were good last week, likely to see Ibotson and/or Palmer this week... ...Surprisingly only allowed 100+ in 2 games in last 10 at home last season, one to Geelong, so they do keep it tight. Have won last 2 meetings, both at Subi. Odds just about right, imo...will probably tip Freo, given everyone else will be on the Hawks (won't they?) Can we get Freo as home dogs by kick off??!! Saints win, but won by only 10 last season...as shown last week, don't score enough to win by lots. Could be anywhere from 10 to 100... Sydney -6.5 looks a play early. Fantastic record at the SCG...one loss in last 10...the rest wins by 27 or more!...inc. 31 points over Port last year. Port had a great run home last year...7 of last 10 at home...1 away v. Richmond...although wins @ Geelong and @ Launny look prtty good. Syndney still looked a lot like Sydney to me last week... Geelong win too I guess, but Bombers did look pretty good last week. No Lucas hurts...but not so much in the Dome I guess. Geelong won last year by 50...no Lloyd. A bit like the Saints game for me...anywhere from 2-82 won't surprise. Richmond?? Don't even know where to start. Are North that bad? Only 3 less inside 50's, but a disfunctional forward line (2.32)...somewhat surprising is that Essendon (2.01) had the 5th best defensive numbers last year, behind Sydney, Crows, Geelong and WC...Tiges had second worst (1.77) behind Carlton. Kangas pumped them last year, but at the Dome...Richmond won 2 of their last 3 at the MCG last year (Coll and Ess)...lost to St. K. by 10...and have won last 5 ats... ...Leaning Roos, but don't really like the MCG for them...again, odds probably right...Tiges a bit tight maybe? Still early days, but Swans...A big maybe on Melbourne, Eagles... :\

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 2. Port 1-3 on tight grounds last year. Beaten by Sydney, Carlton & WBD. Fell in against Brisbane by 7pts at the Gabba after Bris had been in awful form thier past six games. Not suggesting Sydney are value at the 1.77 though, as I feel it might be about right. I notice someone's layed St Kilda @ 1.90 Betfair. Definately sounds like one of Ads or Jeffers bets.