Guest TazaD Posted October 20, 2004 Share Posted October 20, 2004 20-29-1 (-11.20).....So fade away people!!!..Having a stinker! Denver -5.5 Away fav. Monday Night fav. Still like it alot. Denver find themselves in the same situation as Min last week; road favs 2 weeks straight....And as discussed last week this seems to create a 'false' low line. League now: 17-6-4 (Av. win 8.1) away 3+ fav off any ats win as any away fav...since '98. 15-4-2 (Av. win 12.8) if total > 42.5 since '89 Like last week, it tells me that teams not only can cover 2 weeks in a row...they do! The game?...How will Cinci score? Denver no. 1 in total defense...allowing only 3.6 ypc and 5.39 ypp!! Cinci a league worst 4.89 ypp!!!...Simply can't see Cinci getting any ball movement here. Then Cinci allowing 4.6 ypc @ a league worst 160.4 ypg on the ground!!!...Rueben Droughns has a (nother!!) HUGE game here...controls the game, and Denver win by 2 TD's! (Well, one at least ) SD @ Carolina under 42 This one is more of a 'trend' pick. League: 1-8 under (Av. 31.2) home 3- fav off 10+ ats loss as away 7+ dog since '98.....The 1 over was 23-20 in OT with the total @ 41. 1-10-1 under (av. 35.3) since '89 if total > 40.5 Carolina 2-9 under off 2+ straight losses Carolia 4-12 under home total 38-42. Caldwell, SD's leading receiver (and only real deep threat) out. Carolina really struggling to score. Seems a high number to me....Will take my chances on the under. Likely thoughts: Cleveland +7 (hopefully 7.5!) Yeah, great...Philli flying...but how do you give a road fav a TD when they allow 5.0 ypr?? Cleveland ground game not so bad with Green and Suggs...Really should be able to keep the McNabb and owens off the field long enough to at least keep this one close. NYG -6.5 I did my best to keep everyone off the Lions last week. There is simply NO way you could take Detroit without Williams. None. He IS their offense. Every chance he is back this week, but wil it matter? Lions DEAD LAST in offense. ZERO running game..the occasional long strike for a TD. Giants solid running game...Good passing game...Solid D....top 11 passing D. Only question here is NYG -6.5 or under 41?....Det won't score more than 17....can NY cover or is the under the play? NYG: 3-14 under last 17 off a bye!!..Still like the -6.5! Atlanta +4 2 points: KC run D crap! (4.4 ypr)....Can see Vick having a big running game.....KC pass offence HUGELY over-rated! In the bottom half for yards @ only 6.34 ypp....I still think the 'public' see this team as an explosive, point scoring team....It just isn't! KC relies on their running game, and Atlanta allowing a league low 74.5 ypp on the ground at a league low 3.0 ypr!!! The way to beat the Falcons is through the air...Can KC?...The stats say no...Their record says no.....ahem, I say no!! Indi -9 More 'trends': League: 7-0 SU (6-1 this no...Av. win 21.7!!!) home 7+ fav, total >44.5 off a BYE! (Since '89) Teams off a bye who are supposed to score big, DO score big. League: 8-16-1 (Av. loss 13.3) away 7+ dog, off 7+ ats win as home 3- dog. [Jax] 0-4 (Av. loss 26.5!!!) if total >44.5 Jax beat a bad team last week and has brought the line down for this week. Indi 49% on 3rd downs to 35.5 for Jax. Run O and D very similar. Indi 8.21 ypp, Jax 6.43 Indi 6.89 yppa, Jax 6.83!! Indi throw it often and effectively in this one! One more 'trend' of the week.....And, being the board's worst 'capper I may aswell play it..... League: 16-9-1 (Av. WIN 0.1) home 7- dog off 3- ats loss as away 7- dog. [MIAMI] 9-2-1 (Av. WIN 3.1) if total < 40...(10-2 this no!!) Now, Miami should have beaten the Jets @ home (INT return for TD)....TOTALLY outplayed NE!...Then should have beaten Buff (INT returned for TD!! ) IF....IF Miami can hold onto the ball, there's no reason why they can't get within 6 of a team who luckily beat TB @ home, and are very over-rated, imo. Will wait...Hopefully get a 6.5 (or better!! ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bozzers corner Posted October 21, 2004 Share Posted October 21, 2004 week 7 Great right ups as always Taza - agree totally with the Denver game, seen Cinny twice over here (great work by our cable company :rolleyes ) and they are awful - can see Denver battering them.....just hope Miami wins one for us (or covers at least) sometime this season;) Just glad Sky have changed the live game so we get to see the Pats and Jets go at it:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 Re: week 7 PLAYS IN: NYG -6.5 SD @ Caro under 42 Atlanta +4 Indi -9 Denver -5.5 3 BAD teams to come!! Tenn +7 League: 4-12-4 (Av. win 4.3) home 7- fav off 7+ SU win as away 7- fav if opp off 14+ ats loss. [Min] 1-5-1 (Av. win 0.6) if total >44.5 (The cover was Indi over GB this season tho) League: 38-28-4 (Av. loss 3.4) away 7- dog off 14+ ats loss as home 7- fav. [Tenn] 18-7-2 (Av. loss 1.5) if opp was fav last game. 9-1-2 (Av. WIN 1.1) if opp was AWAY fav last game! Some pretty strong League trends both way. Also like the way this game sets up. Tenn off a terrible home performance off a Monday Night win. Minni off a win v. a HORRIBLE NO defense. Tenn showed at GB that they can score big on bad defenses...No reason they won't do the same here. Min only beat Chicago by 5 @ home in Wk. 3. This is a pretty huge week for the Titans. Tenn are 10-4 as a dog last 3 years (1-0 this year), and 11-3 v. winning teams. Hopefully they bring their A-game to this one...but realistically Minni's D should let them stay in this one all the way. Will definately be playing Cleveland and Miami, but hoping for the hook on both lines....They are coming for sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alien syndm Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 Re: week 7 If you take tenn at +7 and they lose by 7 is that stakes back ? I notice they are +6.5 on betfair but +7 on some bookies, is this the same bet or is there a difference here ? Cheers to anyone that can clear that up for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 Re: week 7 $$ refunded if you have +7 and they lose by 7, alien. Pretty important to get this @ +7 imo. Hey, gotta love that Laddies opened it @ +5.5 ;) (Although they have Philli as -8.5 favs which is a bit scary :thinker ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alien syndm Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 Re: week 7 Cheers Taza. Well yeah cos that's a touchdown with 1 point conversion basically isn't it. Hence if they lose by that it's money back with +7 but full loss with +6.5 !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bozzers corner Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 Week 7 Laddies still going -5.5 at 5/6 on the Viks - too small a cap for me not to take it - hopefully it will fall on 6 and we all win ;) :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest abookiesworstnightmare Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 Re: week 7 i jumped on early lines when they opened, already took minn at -6.5 when it should be 7 10/11, also took seattle -6.5 when it is generally 7. the lines are still there obviously my HUGE amount of money didn't caused them much concern ;) . Coral and bluesq i forget which one is where without looking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest chair leg Posted October 23, 2004 Share Posted October 23, 2004 NFL PHI -7 CAR -3 OAK -3 DAL +3.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alien syndm Posted October 24, 2004 Share Posted October 24, 2004 Re: NFL Sorry to ask another seemingly obvious question. With regard to the SD total line at 42. If the actual total is 42 ie 6 touchdowns say all with 1 point conversions is that a money back situation then ? All the lines i notice at the moment are under 41.5 and that 0.5 could make a big difference possibly ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carlisle Blue Posted October 24, 2004 Share Posted October 24, 2004 NFL Two bets for me this Sunday. One large single on Atlanta to bt Kansas. :drums The other a teaser I've put on already. Atlanta +9.5 Denver -1.5 San Diego +9.5 Indianapolis -3.5 Baltimore +1.5 New England +13.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackfritz Posted October 24, 2004 Share Posted October 24, 2004 Re: NFL Gone for a teaser too after success last week. Bought 6 pts with Canbet Det/Giants Under 46 Philli -1 SD/Caro Under 47.5 Atl +9.5 Denver 0 Good luck all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted October 25, 2004 Share Posted October 25, 2004 Ducked. I'm glad I ducked this week (was away). I'd have the Giants to beat the spread over the Lions. Somehow, the Lions won, with 4 TDs and rushing plays... go figure. The Chiefs also turned over the Falcons in what has to be shock of the season so far. Probably will take Denver tomorrow though at 5.5 (1.80) on BetDaq, they're doing good things Longer term, I'm tempted by the 12-1 you can get on the Vikes to win the Superbowl. I think those odds will shorten in the coming weeks, giving a hedging oppurtunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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