daftpegasus Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Twice last night I played similar hands, AKs in exactly the same way. After the game both hands stood out as critical hands that maybe could have changed the result for me and therefore I’d appreciate your thoughts on whether or not I was correct to fold the hand each time? This morning I’ve spent some time analysing it myself and made my own conclusions as to whether they were good plays, poor plays or what I should have done differently so I’m very interested to see if you back up these thoughts or not. The first hand is quite early on in the tournament whilst the second one is when we’re down to the final 5 players. ***** Hand 973360940 ***** 25.00/50.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 27 February 2008 20:27:08 PLounge league (Real/Tournament) Seat 1: PL teaulc (1579.00) Seat 2: PLdobbin (1292.00) Seat 3: PL_Pegasus (1945.00) Seat 4: PLrunadrum (2676.00) Seat 5: PLatitude (1283.00) Seat 7: PLwarbirds (1208.00) Seat 8: PL borokp (1735.00) Seat 9: PLPLady (1432.00) Seat 10: PLgoater14 (1275.00) PL_Pegasus post SB 25.00 PLrunadrum post BB 50.00 ** Deal ** PL teaulc [N/A, N/A] PLdobbin [N/A, N/A] PL_Pegasus [Ks, As] PLrunadrum [N/A, N/A] PLatitude [N/A, N/A] PLwarbirds [N/A, N/A] PL borokp [N/A, N/A] PLPLady [N/A, N/A] PLgoater14 [N/A, N/A] *** Bet Round 1 *** PLatitude Fold PLwarbirds Raise to 100.00 PL borokp Fold PLPLady Fold PLgoater14 Fold PL teaulc Fold PLdobbin Fold PL_Pegasus Call 100.00 PLrunadrum Call 100.00 *** Flop(Board): *** : [7s, 2d, Js] *** Bet Round 2 *** PL_Pegasus Check PLrunadrum Bet 150.00 PLwarbirds Fold PL_Pegasus Call 150.00 *** Turn(Board): *** : [7s, 2d, Js, Jh] *** Bet Round 3 *** PL_Pegasus Bet 250.00 PLrunadrum Raise to 750.00 PL_Pegasus Fold *** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 1100.00 PL teaulc Fold Win: 0.00 PLdobbin Fold Win: 0.00 PL_Pegasus Fold Win: 0.00 PLrunadrum By default Win: 1100.00 PLatitude Fold Win: 0.00 PLwarbirds Fold Win: 0.00 PL borokp Fold Win: 0.00 PLPLady Fold Win: 0.00 PLgoater14 Fold Win: 0.00 ***** Hand 973493956 ***** 300.00/600.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 27 February 2008 21:44:49 PLounge league (Real/Tournament) Seat 1: PL borokp (13074.00) Seat 3: PLSpur (10174.00) Seat 5: PL_Pegasus (15008.00) Seat 6: PLgoater14 (4254.00) Seat 9: PLstrider (3740.00) PLSpur post SB 300.00 PL_Pegasus post BB 600.00 ** Deal ** PL borokp [N/A, N/A] PLSpur [N/A, N/A] PL_Pegasus [Ks, As] PLgoater14 [N/A, N/A] PLstrider [N/A, N/A] *** Bet Round 1 *** PLgoater14 Fold PLstrider Fold PL borokp Call 600.00 PLSpur Fold PL_Pegasus Check *** Flop(Board): *** : [Qc, Js, 8s] *** Bet Round 2 *** PL_Pegasus Bet 1200.00 PL borokp All-in 12474.00 PL_Pegasus Fold *** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 4150.00 PL borokp By default Win: 4150.00 PLSpur Fold Win: 0.00 PL_Pegasus Fold Win: 0.00 PLgoater14 Fold Win: 0.00 PLstrider Fold Win: 0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dico Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please I'm no expert but I think they needed playing more aggressively pre-flop. Both times you have let potentially marginal hands in cheaply. If you had raise more on each play you may have won the pot outright but if you had a call at least you could deduce something about your opponents hand. Just my thoughts, could be complete tripe:lol With regards to folding them, I would definately call the second one, not sure about the 1st Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robsterling Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Erm preflop you flat call one hand, check the other in big blind. You have the 4th best hand in poker, please raise/re-raise it. Both hands, you flop nutflush draw with 2 overcards quite often you are in 50/50 situation with a lot of fold equity here, again please raise it. And here, although I would have played it totally differently, I call probably *** Flop(Board): *** : [Qc, Js, 8s] *** Bet Round 2 *** PL_Pegasus Bet 1200.00 PL borokp All-in 12474.00 PL_Pegasus Fold As he doesn't have 9 10, sometimes he may have a flush draw as well and most times you are in 50/50 situation. You play far far far too passively in both these hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please I'm no expert but I think they needed playing more aggressively pre-flop. Both times you have let potentially marginal hands in cheaply. Erm preflop you flat call one hand, check the other in big blind. You have the 4th best hand in poker, please raise/re-raise it. Thanks for the feedback. I just want to deal with these points initially to give others a chance to add their opinions on the hand play overall. I agree totally with the first hand that the flat call was wrong. I actually priced Runadrum into the pot with any two cards. A raise here would probably have left me up against a single opponent. On the second hand I know a raise might be technically correct, but I like the check because it gives no information to the opponent (it probably actually gives miss-information to him as he's unlikely to put me on such as good hand) and if I hit then I'm likely to win a big pot. However that said, he may have only shoved because I'd shown no strength pre flop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Agree with the other comments - 9 times out of 10, in an unraised pot, I'm putting in a good raise with AKs.... You probably have the best hand at the moment, so want to play a large pot - though being out of position may temper my aggression a bit.... The second hand, I might be tempted to call the all in :loon It seems like a scared bet that doesn't want any action - Pair of queens? Or maybe 9T for the straight, scared of the flush draw? :unsure I'm about 36% to hit the nut flush, which most of the time will win the hand. I am also 16% to pair my Ace or King (non club) and 12% to hit the nut straight - non club (also confident that will win the majority of the time) - so I reckon I'm 48% to hit a winning hand, plus a proportion of 16% - maybe winning 8% of the time - I think you have about 56% equity and better than even money on calling the bet...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Hand One Min. raise from Warbirds and it folds round to the blinds. I don't want the BB to play without a legitimate hand so I'm raising it up to 300. After the flop you check and should have folded. IF you had made a continuation bet out there and Runadrum flat called then you know you're in trouble. Anyway, I think the call of Runadrum's bet stinks. You wasted 400 chips (about 20% of your stack). Hand Two Stinks. By just checking, you say that you're hiding your hands strength. You're also closing your eyes to what boro has. I'd raise it upp to about 3,000 to go. If boro calls or re raises, I'm all in. Anyway, if you're not going to call an all in on that flop, what will you play? You've got the nut flush draw, and 2 overcards, which is a lot more than you had in hand one. Sooner or later you're going to have to gamble, and that was your time. (Sorry Arran) :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Quiet Man Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Hand one You appear to be scared..... Warbirds minimum raises with A rag (I'll go for the 9) If I was you I'd have reraised to at least 300...maybe 400 and hopefully took the pot then! Runadrum then gets in cheap with his K7o and pairs the 7...he has a wee bet to see where he is and when you flat call he know's he's got you! :clap The fold was correct at the end....stay in the game. :ok Hand 2 Hmmm....the flat call is often the way I play when I hit decent cards in the BB when down to the last 4 or 5 players....however it's damn risky as borokp's got in very cheap with his Q 10o and hit top pair. :cry Because you've flat called he doesn't believe your $1200 bet and shoves! I'd have called here....I enjoy a gamble! One tip for Final Table...aggression!! Nice thread and maybe the other players will help you out as to what they were holding. TQM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Nice thread and maybe the other players will help you out as to what they were holding. I dont think that helps for the moment - indeed can be a bit of a red herring :unsure The specific cards they had in this single instance are irellevent, what is important is how you stand up against the range of hands they could have played that way..... if we know what they actually had, then, hard as we try not to, I think it guides our thinking, which can lead us to the wrong conclusions..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Haven't read any of the other replies, don't want opinions by be tainted by others views. You play these hands far too passively, you need to raise or reraise preflop unless you have a very specific read on another player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Nice thread and maybe the other players will help you out as to what they were holding. TQM Run actually showed his hand at the time so I know what he was betting with. Although I agree with Gaf? knowing whether I was ahead or behind is irrelevant. I want to learn where/if I went wrong (and I believe it to be where not if). I think I find it difficult to make decisions on whether to risk my tournament on a draw (calling both hands and losing would have left me very low in chips relative to the blinds). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Hand One Anyway, I think the call of Runadrum's bet stinks. You wasted 400 chips (about 20% of your stack). Hand Two Stinks. (Sorry Arran) :$ No need to be sorry. If I had thought I'd played them well I wouldn't have posted them here:) and I'd rather a reply telling me what you think I've done wrong than no reply at all :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Whether it's a draw or a made hand doesn't make any difference if you're calling all in - if you're 60% to win, holding trips, you have exactly the same chance as if you're 60% to win holding a straight flush draw..... being a draw rather than a made hand shouldnt come into your calculations here - just your estimations of your chance of winning the hand..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please The second hand, I might be tempted to call the all in :loon It seems like a scared bet that doesn't want any action - Pair of queens? Or maybe 9T for the straight, scared of the flush draw? :unsure With time to think more about it I totally agree. If he'd been confident in his hand I suspect he would not have gone all in. I'm about 36% to hit the nut flush, which most of the time will win the hand. I am also 16% to pair my Ace or King (non club) and 12% to hit the nut straight - non club (also confident that will win the majority of the time) - so I reckon I'm 48% to hit a winning hand, plus a proportion of 16% - maybe winning 8% of the time - I think you have about 56% equity and better than even money on calling the bet......I really need to learn the mathematics behind this game. I watched your cash game video and was impressed with the software and the way you were basing your bets on your opponents because of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Second hand whatever you did pre flop it is an easy call post flop in that situation. You have straight draw,flush draw and 2 over cards. Easy call for me. You were coming over as a weak player and someone who was easily shoved off post flop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please I really need to learn the mathematics behind this game. I watched your cash game video and was impressed with the software and the way you were basing your bets on your opponents because of it. I did overegg the importance of it in the video, as one of the latest comments made - there weren't enough hands to start making some of the judgements I was making (I haven't replied yet as I want to rewatch the video with his comments in front of me) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please :wall:wall:wall Despite some excellent advice on this thread I still have not learnt the lesson so I will embarrass myself by putting the HH here in the hope I'll learn one day. ***** Hand 974856093 ***** 0.05/0.10 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 28 February 2008 21:39:57 TH Mini 159 (Real/Cash Game) Seat 1: beks9 (11.54) Seat 2: SANLI27 (10.16) Seat 3: chocapic1 (12.46) Seat 4: ubyuby (2.05) Seat 5: fab1313 (4.55) Seat 6: csomba (10.49) Seat 7: PL_Pegasus (9.87) Seat 8: MrPropre57 (1.90) Seat 9: Padrasto (6.05) Seat 10: arkady (11.09) csomba post SB 0.05 PL_Pegasus post BB 0.10 ** Deal ** beks9 [N/A, N/A] SANLI27 [N/A, N/A] chocapic1 [N/A, N/A] ubyuby [N/A, N/A] fab1313 [N/A, N/A] csomba [N/A, N/A] PL_Pegasus [10c, Ac] MrPropre57 [N/A, N/A] Padrasto [N/A, N/A] arkady [N/A, N/A] *** Bet Round 1 *** MrPropre57 Fold Padrasto Fold arkady Fold beks9 Fold SANLI27 Call 0.10 chocapic1 Call 0.10 ubyuby Fold fab1313 Call 0.10 csomba Call 0.10 PL_Pegasus Check *** Flop(Board): *** : [8c, Qh, 7c] *** Bet Round 2 *** csomba Check PL_Pegasus Bet 0.20 SANLI27 Fold chocapic1 Call 0.20 fab1313 Fold csomba All-in 10.39 PL_Pegasus Fold chocapic1 Fold *** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.05 Total Pot: 1.05 beks9 Fold Win: 0.00 SANLI27 Fold Win: 0.00 chocapic1 Fold Win: 0.00 ubyuby Fold Win: 0.00 fab1313 Fold Win: 0.00 csomba By default Win: 1.05 PL_Pegasus Fold Win: 0.00 MrPropre57 Fold Win: 0.00 Padrasto Fold Win: 0.00 arkady Fold Win: 0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Your draw is nowhere near as strong there - only runner runner straight, only one overcard .... I probably fold too.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Yeah I agree. I'd probably fold too. (I feel ill now... Off for a lie down....) :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Surely the hand here is stronger than Hand 1 from the OP? 2 cards to come and the same nut flush draw. Equally in Hand 1 the board was paired giving FH possibilties. You'll be happy to know later on I put in a 5xBB raise pre flop with AKo. Unfortunately I ran into KK, but I got it down from 5 people in the pot (the KK limped in) to 1 person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please I didn't talk about hand 1 earlier ;) But agree, I probably lay that down - 1 card to come, nut flush draw and 2 overcards, with a paired board - I dont think I have the odds to call for my flush, and even if I did, I could already be drawing dead..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Surely the hand here is stronger than Hand 1 from the OP? 2 cards to come and the same nut flush draw. Equally in Hand 1 the board was paired giving FH possibilties. You'll be happy to know later on I put in a 5xBB raise pre flop with AKo. Unfortunately I ran into KK, but I got it down from 5 people in the pot (the KK limped in) to 1 person. I didn't read no1 properly. :$ I thought that you were making a continuation bet on the flop (sorry). I think that the play there was right but I'm not sure I'd have fired out again on the turn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please When you do work out how to play AK from the blinds let me know I'm begining to think folding is the best option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voiceofjoe Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please Hand 1 Re-Raise from BB, If he calls he defines his hand a bit more - if he re-raises hes defined it even further!! Presuming he had just called the raise, then I'd make a continuation bet here, as there is only probably AJ,JJ,77 (maybe KJs ? - thinking he would probably have bet again with AA,KK,QQ), that he would be calling a reraise from, that you are behind to. If he does call then I'm probably done investing in this hand. Hand 2 Short Handed and Big Stack vs Big Stack - I dont mind the call in the BB. (If you put in the reraise you just win the single bet (and blinds) - or you face calling a push by the only stack on the table that can cause serious damage to you, and your are most probably behind if he does call you) But then I'm continuing letting Boro take the lead in the hand. And either Check Calling or Check Raising (All-In) depending what size bet he puts into the checked pot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Right to Censor Posted March 9, 2008 Share Posted March 9, 2008 Re: Hand Analysis - Your Thoughts Please I don't like slow playing AK should never ever do that. 1st one is a fold, second one is a call. Need more agression with the AK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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