A couple of NBA systems I have learnt of elsewhere...

[happygooner]

Well, I tell a lie, one of the systems I first learned of here (although noted after that it was sweeping the forum world but being played ever so slightly differently) from Alense. Seeing as he now no longer seems to be posting I see no harm in continuing. From what I also understand the NBA is notoriously difficult to succeed at in the 2nd half of the season after all star break so this coupled with a progressive staking plan (that used by the infamous maria and her laying of horses) should prove to be the real acid test so to speak! Going to try and get this out there for the first game tonight but not long now so entirely possible I will miss it. PLEASE NOTE PEOPLE: I AM PAPER TRADING ONLY RIGHT NOW

[happygooner]

Re: A couple of NBA systems I have learnt of elsewhere... One of the systems is called TAR and below is an explanation of how it works, using NCAAB teams, that I have copied from another site. Stats used to ascertain these are found at covers under matchups and home/away in depth. The TAR System is a ratio-driven system that's been tweaked by some on this site for both NCAAB and NBA. TAR is an acronym for Turnovers-to-Assists Ratio. In the Elon example below, we look at the visiting team (Western Carolina in this case), and their TAR numbers on both Offense and Defense vs the NCAAB average. Then you look at the home team (Elon) and their Offense and Defense TAR against the NCAAB average. Note: you MUST look at the stats for the teams when they are Home/Away, NOT the Overall numbers, as that will skew (read: invalidate) the data. e.g. Does Virginia play the same when they’re at home AND on the road? No team really does. In our example, Elon gets a closer look because they fit the 4-0 TAR system:

	West Caro		NCAA	Elon
	Offense	Defense	Avg	Offense	Defense
Assist : TO	0.64	1.00	0.87	1.00	0.25
Assists	9	15	13.5	13	5
TO	14	15	15.6	13	20

Note: This doesn't display lined up properly, let me just tell you that the numbers in the middle (gray) column are the NCAA average (.87 = Assists-to-Turnover Ratio, 13.5 = Avg Assists, 15.6 = Avg TO's). In the TAR system, we see that the West Carolina Offense is 23 points (hundredths) worse than the average in the NCAA for turnovers to assists (.87 - .64 = .23), and their defense is 13 points worse than average on the TAR (1.00 - .87 = .13). Again, these are ON THE ROAD numbers for West Caro, if you look at their Home stats, they will be different! Same with Elon, these are their HOME stats, as their ROAD stats are different. Clarifying the data we're seeing, a higher number than the average is better on offense (more assists to turnovers), and a lower number than the average is better on defense (more turnovers to assists, which, as a defense, you want to cause). Now we also see that Elon is 13 points better than the NCAA average on Offense at home, and 62 points better on Defense. That's four factors ALL to the benefit of Elon: WestCar 'O' worse + WestCar 'D' worse + Elon 'O' better + Elon 'D' better = 4-0 in favor of Elon. Where this system has been tweaked in the past is in the ATS numbers. If Elon has won more games than lost Against The Spread, then they qualify as a play in the TAR system. They are currently 3-1 ATS, so they qualify. By extrapolation, if we find a team has a winning ATS record, we PLAY them. If they have a losing OR TIED ATS record, we FADE them, and call them "Dawgs", as shown above. The perception here is that a tied or losing ATS team has a winning record SU, but they are OVER-valued by the lines makers. In this next example below, we see that it is indeed the case in this instance:

	W/L	ATS
East Illinois	1-3	0-2
Wis-GreenBay	3-2	1-2

Since this is very early in the season, this is a fair example of Wisc-GreenBay, but it would make anyone wary of taking an 0-2 ATS team like Eastern Illinois. East Illinois has both a bad W/L AND ATS record, BUT has played some tough teams so far this year (all on the road), AND returns ALL Five starters from last year's team that BEAT this Wisc-GB team. GB returns FOUR starters from last year's team, BUT the leading scorer from that game (and best player) graduated. Now you're giving me 14 points too? Gosh, I don't know... (note:sarcasm) You'll see later in the season (closer to Christmas) a lot of teams that qualify as plays in this TAR System that, in spite of having a bad SU W/L record, do much better ATS. I hope this clears up the TAR System for some of you. GL to all who use this info! From this, I believe the first game of the evening between Detroit & Phoenix doesn't qualify. From all of this I also found records of the system being used in the NBA but in a different way. The best thing was to find the qualifying plays and play all single digit faves, back against the double digit faves and play every highlighted (under)dog.