Probability theory question

[robilaruk]

need help with this. 10 seater stt blinds are substantial to stacks (say 100/200) so its shove or fold with 1500 chips and there are 6 players left you are in the CO and have A6, what is the chance of the button SB or BB having a bigger Ace? you are on the button same question for SB & BB you are in the SB, same question for the BB if there were only 5 players left does it make a substantial difference to the probability? (and if so how much of a difference 4 handed on the bubble?) I have no idea how to work this out, I can play around in pokerstove but that just matches hand vs hand (range) which is not quite the same thing? (or is it?:$) any help most appreciated:ok Cheers Damo

[slapdash]

Re: Probability theory question

if there were only 5 players left does it make a substantial difference to the probability? (and if so how much of a difference 4 handed on the bubble?)

The only way the number of players makes a difference is that if the players in early position have folded, then it makes it less likely that they have an ace (since they're probably more likely to bet with an ace than without one), and this increases the chance that the players in later position have an ace. But it's hard to quantify how much difference it makes, since it depends on what hands they'll fold, which will vary from player to player. It probably doesn't make that much difference, though. If you ignore the information from the early position players folding, it's possible to answer the questions you asked, but it's quite an involved calculation. I don't have time tonight, but I'll see what I can do later ...