Does Weight matter in Grand National?

[Gingertipster]

Does Weight Matter in National? We get so much twaddle written about why you should not back top weights or those carrying 11^st or more. Surely they should look in to the reasons why those horses do not win before making such sweeping statements. In the past some 40 runner races only had one or two 11^st plus horses and 38 below 11^st. So bit of a miss match there. Then there were the automatic top weights from Czechoslavakia with SP's of 200/1 or more, no surprise they did not win. If we take recent renewals, Royal Auclair finished 2^nd under a big weight, Montys Pass was placed after he won it and Hedgehunter 2^nd after winning when carrying 11^st. Between 2 and 3% of those carrying 11^st or more have won the race and between 2 and 3% of those carrying less than 11^st have won, since Corbiere. (Sorry, lost my workings out I did a year or two ago so can not be more acurate). These days, very few top quality horses run when at the top of their game. Usually they are on the downgrade or old and exposed (unlikely to improve) by the time connections allow them to run. Where are Miko De Beachene and Halcon Genelardais? So we should be looking for a horse who stays well but with a bit of speed, goes on good and good-soft, of good temperament, jumps well, with experience of the National fences, likely to run, with at least fair recent form, is reasonably or well handicapped and improving. It does not matter at all if that horse carries 11^st 12lbs or 10 st. Let us look at this years race concentrating on the negatives: Beef Or Salmon: downgrade, jumps poorly, wants bottomless ground. Celestial Gold: been injured, probably on downgrade. Turpin Green: very poor temperament. Hedgehunter: has had an injury and yet to show he is back to his best. Hi Cloy: won't stay. Knowhere: doubtful stayer and jumper but improving. Mr Pointment: ticks most boxes, has limited experience but that does include a win in the Beecher and runs well in big fields. Stays 3m2f well but untried over further. SHORT LIST. Ollie Magern: probably will stay, exposed. Forget The Past: Doubtful stayer and on the downgrade. Monkerhostin: exposed, doubtful stayer and jumper, hated the course last year. Turko: recent breathing op seems to have rejuvinated him, doubtful stayer and temperament. Foreman: won't stay, on downgrade. Madison Du Berlais: genuine and consistent, already stays longer than anticipated (3m2f) doubtful whether will stay further. Probably exposed now. Rule Supreme: downgrade, jumps very poorly. Billyvoddan: yet to prove he is back to his best, doubtful stayer, temperament. Joe Lively: novice but jumps well, is getting plenty of experience but not in big fields. Improving and should stay. Main target Sun Alliance, LONG LIST if getting there. Knight Legend: jumps very poorly, very doubtful stayer. Simon: jumps better than form figures suggest but is a bit small. Possibly still on the upgrade and has the right stamina / speed balance. Running well last year before falling when in with a good chance. SHORT LIST. Opera Mundi:on the upgrade before last time, stays 3m well, 4m4f is a doubt and so is the going if there is not much give underfoot. Best to wait to see the going. Ungaro: back to form, goes well on good going, jumps o.k. Yet to prove he stays further than 3 miles and not certain starter. LONG LIST if getting there. Iron Man: doubtful temperament and jumper. Thisthatandtother: now 12 year old and thoroughly exposed. Proved last year he jumps well but also that he does not stay. Dream Alliance: ran too bad to be true in Welsh National (jumped and travelled poorly after being hampered early). Improved effort 2^nd in Hennessey. Needs to jump better and return to form. Watch him at Exeter Sunday. Fundamentalist: not jump well enough to win a National, also doubtful stayer. Butlers Cabin: finished distressed when winning at Chelters and Ire National on good. Has not always impressed with jumping or temperament. Ran poorly last time. Slim Pickings: Ran a great race in last years race, but despite that can make the odd blunder, less exposed than most with Aintree experience. LONG LIST. Of the 11^st plus brigade only Mr Pointment and Simon reach my short list. Joe Lively, Ungaro and Slim Pickings are in the long list, first two unlikely to run. I took 33/1 Simon and 25/1 Bewleys Berry before they reappeared this season and have just taken 17/1 Mr Pointment.

[devil tish]

Re: Does Weight matter in Grand National? weight mattered in 2002 when i was on whats up boys at 33/1 each way leading at the elbow carrying 11st6lbs. when along came bindaree with 10st 4lbs and did him by under 2 lengths.:(:( i am still gutted 6 years later:lol:lol