MadnessTrebles

[madnesstiger]

This system is a tweaked version of "Fleet's Trebles" as found elsewhere on the forum. Reading his threads inspired me to construct my own version with new ratings and a variation on the staking strategy. Overview I give each fixture (from the leagues covered) a rating, based on the home teams recent performance. The teams which achieve the best ratings along with suitable odds will be placed into a 3-Fold accumulator with Bet365. The bets will be placed when there is a busy fixture period, this will usually mean every weekend and also some midweek bets, as I feel necessary. Leagues/Divisions Covered

• English Premier League
• English Championship
• English League One
• English League Two
• Scottish Premier League
• Scottish Division One
• Scottish Division Two
• Scottish Division Three
• Turkish Superlig

The Ratings The ratings are calculated using Microsoft Excel, and are based on a complex formula which takes into account:

• Home team goals conceded in recent games
• Away team goals conceded in recent games
• Both teams' number of wins draws and losses in recent games
• Winning margins in recent games

Recent games = last 6, except in the Scottish divisions where better results were obtained using the last 5 games. Basically, the higher rating a game has, the more chance (theoretically) the home team has of winning the match. The highest rating noted from collecting past data was 49. Previous Results Analysis Results data has been collected for each division covered in the system, and a match rating given where possible since the 2001/02 season. Altogether, almost 13,500 matches have been rated and analysed. Each divisions results produce a graph showing how well the ratings system performs and is given a trendline showing the line of best fit. The graph is then set to display its R-squared equation - this shows how 'reliable' the system is, where a figure of 1 is 100% consistent with the line of best fit. From this I have produced a comparison chart showing which divisions provide the most reliable system, which have better home-win strike rates within specific groups of ratings, and also how successful the system is at picking 'home team not-to-lose' selections. For example: The English Premier League gives us the most reliable data, with a r-squared rating of 96.2% and the 2nd highest 'slope' rating of 1.07 (this rating shows how well a highly-rated match picks home winners against how well a low-rated match picks an unsuccessful home team) It also shows that in the Scottish Division 3, 93% of matches rated between 21-30 (83 matches) resulted in a home win or a draw. Selections I find ratings for each upcoming match and will generally select the 3 teams with the highest rating to be included in the 3-fold bet. Where the ratings are close to call, I will use the comparison chart to find which disivison has provided more reliable/successful data for the rating in quesiton, as well as reading match previews for any injury doubts to key players or suspensions etc. to help decide. The bookies odds also can come into play here. If the odds for a match are too low (i.e. less than 1.50 in decimal odds) I will question the inclusion of the team in question. Odds of around 1.70-2.00 would be ideal and are what I had in mind whilst working out the staking strategy. I will be expecting most selected matches to be rated at least 20. Depending on the league in question, matches rated 21-30 have a strike rate of between 58% and 72%. Matches rated over 30 have strike rates of between 60% and 100%, again depending on the league in question. Staking Plan I liked FF's idea of using a 'progression' system made up of 10 levels, where if 10 successful trebles were selected in succession, you would be loaded! However, it didn't take long for me to realise that this pretty much required selecting 30 successful home wins in a row to complete all 10 levels. With this in mind, I am going to suggest the following staking strategy initially, based on the English FA Cup for a bit of fun!... Level 1 (1st Qualifying Round) £10 stake on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return £49 Bank the £10 stake, and proceed to level 2 with the £39 profit. Level 2 (2nd Qualifying Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £19.50 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £96.00 If win, we bank £20 and proceed to level 3 with approx £76. Level 3 (1st Round Proper) 2 attempts at another treble! £38.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £186.00 If win, we bank £30 and proceed to level 4 with approx £156. Level 4 (2nd Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £78.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £382.00 If win, we bank £40 and proceed to level 5 with approx £342. Level 5 (3rd Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £171.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £838.00 If win, we bank £50 and proceed to level 6 with approx £788. Level 6 (4th Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £394.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £1930.00 If win, we bank £60 and proceed to level 7 with approx £1870. Level 7 (5th Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £935.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £4580.00 If win, we bank £70 and proceed to level 8 with approx £4510. Level 8 (6th Round) 2 attempts at another treble! £2255.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £11050. If win, we bank £80 and proceed to level 9 with approx £10,970. Level 9 (Quarter-Final) 2 attempts at another treble! £5485.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £26,876 If win, we bank £90 and proceed to level 10 with approx £26,786. Level 10 (Semi-Final) 2 attempts at another treble! £13393.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £65,625 If win, we bank £100 and proceed to level 11 with approx £65525. Level 11 (The Final) 2 attempts at another treble! £32760.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £160,524 If win, we either bank the lot.. or bank £110 and go on to play in the Super Cup! Level 12 (Super Cup Final) 2 attempts at another treble! £80200.00 stake (half of profit from previous level) on 3-Fold at odds of approx 4.90 (based on average home-win odds of 1.70) A win would return approx £392,980 If win, we retire! Depending how many '2nd attempts' you had to use, you could walk away with anything upto around £500,000!!! This includes unused stakes and the small amounts banked on the way. You can obviously walk away at whichever level you want, but if you can conquer the lot, I'd recommend you congratulate yourself, have a pint, buy a Reliant Robin, and walk away from gambling for a little while! I'm going straight in with a £100 starting bankroll, real money.. see where we end up! I may work on alternative staking strategies in the future, but for now, will stick to the above. Suggestions, comments.. your shout folks! :D

[staffy]

Re: MadnessTrebles Good luck.