happyhornet Posted January 31, 2008 Share Posted January 31, 2008 Hi all, Apologies, but the hand history bit on Paradise isn't working (for me:unsure) at the moment. The synopsis is as such: 3 Euro Freezeout. 456 runners, about 60 or so left. Pays to 50. I have about 8000 chips left, which I think had be in about 30th or so. The blinds are 300/600/a50. I have just moved tables a few hands ago (to the UTG position AGAIN!!) and have no reads on my table. There is a good mix of short (2K) medium (8K) and larger (15K) stacks on the tables. I have AKs on the button. A mid position player goes all-in for about 6800, it is folded to me. The blinds are both shorties with about 2-3K left. My thought pattern (in the 20 or so seconds I was allowed) fell between two thoughts: 1. To get to the 'real' money, I'm going to have to take risks to double up, AKs is a big hand, only dominated by AA and KK, if I call and win, I have 16K-ish and am in the top ten. 2. Unless the raiser has AQ or AJ, I'm in a race at best with any other reasonable holding, and if I call and lose, I'm virtually out. Maybe i am better to wait for a better opportunity and/or be the aggressor not the caller. What should you do? Call or fold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted January 31, 2008 Share Posted January 31, 2008 Re: Hornet's Strategy Questions. Part 6 This looks like a shove from a player who doesn't want a call. If he had a monster he could raise to about 2400 and hope to get action from one of the blinds. A shove looks to me like he's happy to simply pick up the blinds and ante's. I doubt that finishing 40-50 pays you back much more than your tournament entrance fee therefore you have to be looking higher than those positions. AKs has a number of outs against AA and KK (the only hands you're really worried about). Anything else and it's probably a coin flip at worst. Your concern here should be those to act after you. If both of those call your odds are slashed dramatically. I know it makes no difference due to the chip stack sizes but if you call you should actually re-raise (hoping the blinds will see this as an extra sign of strength). All things considered I'd raise/call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted January 31, 2008 Share Posted January 31, 2008 Re: Hornet's Strategy Questions. Part 6 I was thinking obv all in, however with the stage of the tourney as it is i think a large part on the decision depends on the 2/3 players to your immediate left - what are their chip stacks? I'm thinking if the chip stacks to your immediate left are about mid-low range like yours then you can take their blinds and keep accumulating chips that way to keep your head above water and avoid having to put your life on the line in a coin flip. However, if you're not feeling too confident about being able to steal blinds to your left then i think you have to go for it - it's a premium hand with a chance to double up to get a big chip stack. At that stage of the tourney you need to get some chips somehow and tbh good opportunities come rarely - Premium hand against only 1 all in, on the button - Is a great opportunity. Essentially though my final decision would rest on how confident i could be in taking blinds ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 31, 2008 Share Posted January 31, 2008 Re: Hornet's Strategy Questions. Part 6 2 players to act after you are short stacked then I would be delighted to get my chips in here with A/K. Double up and use your stack as the bubble approaches, even if you lose you are still in the tourney. Easy call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voiceofjoe Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 Re: Hornet's Strategy Questions. Part 6 Ideally I'd like to be first in and give the blinds a tricky decision. Not sure I agree with DP's reckoning that he's stealing the blinds, as he's virtually pot committed with any standard raise - so the all-in could just as well be AA as KJ. I would more likely to think he has a mid pair - I don't think its as easy call, as Glceud says I think your probably a small underdog in this hand. It helps in these positions if you can get a feel for what the player has done in the past, and what he's been pushing with previously. You still have a 'little' time on your side, but not much. You have the flush on your side, so I'm calling - and I'm hoping the Small Stacks are coming along also to make my winnings bigger if I hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 Re: Hornet's Strategy Questions. Part 6 Some interesting comments The power of AK is in HU play so with only 14BB or so left you don't want the two microstacks calling you as this reduces your chances of winning and you would prefer to win the whole of the 7K rather than about 4K in a side pot (of course if you had 60K you wouldn't mind so much if a shortie won the main pot and you won 4K in the side as you have a chance to knock 2 players out without them damaging your stack) The suited AK makes you about 2% better than AK off suit, it is pretty irrelevant AI preflop as to the flush draw but does give you options to shove of the flop with a draw and may make a 'lesser' hand (though currently winning) fold. Villians raising range: he has about 11BB left so any 'normal' raise of 3BB means he is pot committed to an over shove, there should be no way he should fold his hand after committing so many chips (unless it goes shove call call call call call - in which case I would gladly let my hand go) He is shoving any 2 reasonable cards but I agree it would be less likely to be AA as he wants a call. So if we discount AA you are at worst a 70/30 dog if he has KK, against any other PP you are roughly a 55/45 dog against any other holding you are a favourite (as much as a 70/30 if you hold a common card) there are more non KK hands than anything else so you are probably not far from a 'coin flip' (I don't like that word but the meaning will do) Position: you on the button, can you fold and shove next hand to pick up the blinds? are you aggressive enough to play Q10 from the CO? if so then there might be an argument for folding as you are using your fold equity to bully others, if you don't feel comfortable shoving Q10 next hand then you must call now when you are in a better position to double up rather than wait and hope for AA-QQ before you get blinded away. Do you need to cash? does limping ITM make a difference to you? if you are happy to finish 5oth and cash then fold and pick a better spot/better hand. If you want a chance at winning more then call as you are probably not going to get a better chance in the next couple of orbits to get a chip stack that will see you into the cash and give you a chance to move up the ladder. I would insta call here, what would make it more interesting is whether the cards were AQ AJ or A10, these are the hands that make the choices more difficult. Cheers Damian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 Re: Hornet's Strategy Questions. Part 6 Not sure I agree with DP's reckoning that he's stealing the blinds, as he's virtually pot committed with any standard raise - so the all-in could just as well be AA as KJ. Just to highlight that I actually said he was happy to pick up the blinds, not stealing them. To me stealing the blinds is generally done from late position with your fingers crossed and any 2 cards. If you hold a half decent hand (low pp, KJs, J10s, etc) where you feel you have out's if you get called, you may decide to shove it all in the middle and hope for the best from any position. In this situation you might be happy to pick up the blinds but were not stealing them. A raise of 3 or 4 times the BB (1800 or 2400) is still going to leave him with over 4000 chips (not the short stack at the table) therefore I suspect that a monster hand would put in that sized raise to get some action as opposed to potentially scaring everyone off the pot simply to pick up the blinds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyhornet Posted February 4, 2008 Author Share Posted February 4, 2008 Re: Hornet's Strategy Questions. Part 6 Thanks for your responses guys:ok. First, the admission. I folded. :$ Even as I did it, I was questioning my rationale behind the decision. I guess I didn't want to risk my tournament life on what was probably a coin flip. I had been relatively pro-active in blind stealing and thought that that couild get me though the bubble until a better situation came around. In hindsight, of course, I am rarely going to have a better hand to increase my stack with than AKs, and as you all pointed out I should have called. Oh well, we live and learn. For increased irony I finished well in the cash despite this faux pas, and went out calling an all-in with...AKs:tongue2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voiceofjoe Posted February 7, 2008 Share Posted February 7, 2008 Re: Hornet's Strategy Questions. Part 6 For increased irony I finished well in the cash despite this faux pas' date=' and went out calling an all-in with...AKs:tongue2.[/quote'] It was hardly a faux pas if yuo finished well in the cash ..... :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: Hornet's Strategy Questions. Part 6 just read thsi thread, I'd have pushed here from a pure inflection point pov, You have an "M" of just under 6, his "M" is less, around 4 I think. His pushing range is huge, any pair, any two face cards. I think you're most likely ahead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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