Following Slapdash's thread "Kelly criterion for E/W bets"

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Ok, I've been trying something the last few weeks regarding horse race system and I've reached some conclusions I hope:drums So I'll explain how the selections are made: 1 - if a race has 'n' runners, the price must be AT LEAST (n-1)/1 (e.g. 11 runners, the minimum price is 10/1). 2 - horse must have at LEAST 1 win in the last 6 starts. 3 - horse must have won AT LEAST 1 time over going. 4 - jockey must have at least showed 1 time over course and 1 time over similar distance. 5 - either STABLE OR JOCKEY must have positive return on 1 unit stakes over all races at the track (this one is to be seen yet) 6 - stake to bet will be decided according to Slapdash's kelly criterion thread as follows:

Let m be the profit you'd make on a 0.5 unit EW bet if the horse wins, and let n be the profit you'd make if it places (so, for example, if the odds are 10/1 and a place pays 1/5 the odds, then m = 6 and n = 0.5). Let p be the probability of the horse winning, and let q be the probability of it placing (but not winning). So 1-p-q is the probability that it is unplaced. Now let: A = mn B = (p+q)mn +pn +qm -m -n C = pm +qn -1 + p + q. Note that C is just your expected profit on a 0.5 unit EW bet. Then the optimal proportion of your bank to use as the unit stake (so the total stake is twice this) is [b + sqrt(B^2 + 4AC)]/4A sqrt means square root.

If any of you people wants to contribute with advices :) you're more than welcome

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Re: Following Slapdash's thread "Kelly criterion for E/W bets" Just to add, as I'll be doing this the previous night, I'll use the SP BETTTING FORECAST