Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

[Subzero]

Hi all, I noticed there are already 2 similar threads, but let me introduce this 1. Since a few months i bet under 2.5 on matches in low-scoring leagues but not really according to some sort of system. I just looked at the league standings and then decided which games could end under 2.5. I made some money with it(not much) so i think my new strategy can be a little more profitable when you look at other factors besides total goals made. So i developed this strategy: - Only bet on leagues where the avg. number of goals in a match is < 2.4 - Total unders in a league minimum 55%. - Minimum odds 1.50. - Home team should have at least 2 unders in last 3 home games, away team 2 unders in last 3 away games. - Average number of goals scored by the combined home and away team should be 2 or less(example: Team A has played 10 home matches, in which were scored a total of 16 goals. Team B has played 10 away matches, in which were scored a total of 22 goals. So a total of 38 goals scored in 20 matches = 1,9. - The stronger the stats, the more i bet. All bets are 2,3 or 4 units. - Start Bank 100 Units I will post my picks here regualrly, and also keep you updated about my results.

[aliando]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results :welcome to PL and good luck!

[jtw1]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Good luck :ok

[johnfash]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Hi Guys. I would like to start getting into betting over/under 2.5 goals, I was wondering if anyone could point me in the right direction in terms of good websites that give good stats (preferrably previous seasons results for 2 teams). Thanks in advance.

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

Hi Guys. I would like to start getting into betting over/under 2.5 goals, I was wondering if anyone could point me in the right direction in terms of good websites that give good stats (preferrably previous seasons results for 2 teams). Thanks in advance.

http://www.betexplorer.com/ Just click on a league, then click on an upcoming match and all stats are showed. I was planning to post my first picks from the Greek league, but now i found out all matches are postponed till the weekend...

[johnfash]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Hi mate, thanks for the help. However I am mainly looking at comparing previous games that a certain two teams have played. For example, if Man Utd are playing Arsenal, a website that shows all of the past results of these two teams meetings (preferably showing european games also) I come accross this site, http://www.soccerstats.com/ which shows you the average goals per game, so as you can see, I would stay well away from the dutch league if betting under 2.5 goals (unless you confident).

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

Hi mate, thanks for the help. However I am mainly looking at comparing previous games that a certain two teams have played. For example, if Man Utd are playing Arsenal, a website that shows all of the past results of these two teams meetings (preferably showing european games also) I come accross this site, http://www.soccerstats.com/ which shows you the average goals per game, so as you can see, I would stay well away from the dutch league if betting under 2.5 goals (unless you confident).

Well, betexplorer offers that option also. After you clicked a match you scroll down to the bottom of the screen and all H2H results from the past 10 years are shown. And the Dutch league is indeed not a league to bet on unders, avg. goals a match is one of the highest in europe over 3.00. Only teams which have some value to bet under is Heracles Almelo home and Willem II Tilburg away. Tip for unders: Greece-2, 1.82 goals a match, by far the lowest scoring league in Europe ;)

[johnfash]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Yes mate, I have found a nice bet which I think is a good pick for tonight. Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar, AZ have had over 2.5 goals in the past 5 games, and in the past 5 years, games between these two sides have finished in over 2.5 goals 75% of the time. They have both, on average throughout the league, had over 2.5 goals per game. Anyway, after taking things into account, I think this is a decent bet for tonight, and I have bet on 1.65 at betfair (didnt bother comparing the market as its a low stake), wish me luck. P.S, To everyone who bets under 2.5, do you prefer to pick out one game and put a decent sized steak, or bet on a number of games you think have a good chance of winning and bet small?

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results ok here are the first selections, 4 games which are scheduled for saturday League: Greece-1 ATROMITOS 10/19 3/3 - XANTHI 9/16 2/3 Total 1.84 5/6 First i explain the numbers set after the teams. Atromitos 10/19 means that this team has played 10 home matches in which were scored a total of 19 goals. 3/3 means that from their last 3 home games 3 have finished under. Same thing for Xanthi, but in away games. 1.84 is their combined average 35 goals(19+16) : 19 matches(10+9). 5/6 is the total of unders by these teams in last 6 matches(3 home for Atromitos and 3 away for Xanthi). These stats are pretty strong, both teams under 2 in total goals average. Only over for Xanthi in a 2-1 loss to Olympiakos dating back to december. I will stake 1 extra unit(3 instead of 2). Stake: 3 units @ 1.55 Sporting Bet League: Portugal-1 Benfica 8/17 2/3 - Nacional Madeira 9/15 3/3 Total 1.88 5/6 This bet is not really because of the home team stats but has everything to do with the away team. Nacional in on top of my stats, both at home and away. They are by far the lowest scoring team of Portugal. In fact, their last 8 games all ended under. And also because in Benfica home games not very much goals are scored either(total 17 which include 7 in just 1 match), i think this is a value bet, especially if you take a look at the odds. It's even worth 1 extra unit to me. Stake: 3 units @ 1.85 Bwin League: Greece-1 Levadiakos 8/17 2/3 - Larissa 10/14 3/3 Total 1.72 5/6 Same story as the previous match, only now the stats are even more stronger for the away team. Larissa has 9 unders in their last 9 matches. So 1 extra unit. Stake: 3 units @ 1.50 Betsson League: Spain-2 Sociedad 10/16 2/3 - Eibar 10/23 2/3 Total 1.95 4/6 Not the strongest of stats here, so staking 2 units sounds fine. Stake: 2 units @ 1.67 Stan James and the picks for sunday: League: Italy-3B Arezzo 11/16 2/3 - Perugia 10/20 2/3 Total 1.71 4/6 Very strong stats here, Arezzo's last 5 games all finished...0-0!!! Only reason not to stack extra units here is that both teams have an over in their recent games. Stake: 2 units @ 1.55 Betsson League: Greece-1 Aris Saloniki 8/15 2/3 - Ergotelis 8/14 3/3 Total 1.81 5/6 Both teams avg. under 2, and also their recent results include a lot of unders. 1 extra unit. Stake: 3 units @ 1.725 10Bet League: Portugal-1 Belenenses 9/14 2/3 - Sporting 9/15 2/3 Total 1.61 4/6 Both teams just over 1.5 on avg, but recent results not to strong. 2 units Stake: 2 units @ 1.60 Sporting Bet League: Italy-3A Legnano 10/17 3/3 - Manfredonia 11/25 3/3 Total 2.00 6/6 Here we have the strongest of stats, according to recent results. 2 extra units. Stake: 4 units @ 1.55 Bwin League: Italy-3B Massese 10/18 2/3 - Ancona 10/17 3/3 Total 1.75 5/6 Again both teams under 2 on avg. and recent results only 1 over. 3 units. Stake: 3 units @ 1.55 Betsson League: Greece-1 Panathinaikos 8/13 2/3 - Asteras Tripolis 8/15 3/3 Total 1.75 5/6 Panathinaikos traditional top-team, but not really impressive at home. Last 2 home games only 1-0 against the worst 2 teams in the league. Asteras is the big surprise in Greece, their defense is ranked 2nd behind...Panathinaikos. 1 extra unit. Stake: 3 units @ 1.763 10Bet League: Italy-3B Sorrento 10/15 3/3 - Sambenedettese 10/19 3/3 Total 1.70 6/6 Both teams avg. under 2, and recent results show no overs. This is a very strong bet according to the stats, 2 extra units. Stake: 4 units @ 1.55 Bwin League: Italy-3B Taranto 10/14 3/3 - Salernitana 10/16 3/3 Total 1.50 6/6 This game has the strongest of stats for this strategy so far, no overs recently and 2 very low-scoring teams. 2 extra units. Stake: 4 units @ 1.50 Betsson League: Portugal-2 Trofense 9/15 2/3 - Vizela 9/18 2/3 Total 1.83 4/6 2 overs recently, so staking just 2 units. Stake: 2 units @ 1.50 Betsson League: Portugal-2 Varzim 9/14 2/3 - Gil Vicente 9/20 2/3 Total 1.89 4/6 Same story as previous game. Stake: 2 units @ 1.60 Sporting Bet League: Greece-1 Veria 10/20 2/3 - Iraklis Saloniki 9/18 3/3 Total 2.00 5/6 Only 1 over combined for these teams, 1 extra unit. Stake: 3 units @ 1.533 Sporting Bet I also selected 4 games from Greece-2, but the odds for unders are so poor(all under 1.50) that it's not worth it. Maybe they get a little better tomorrow but i doubt that since this is the lowest-scoring league of Europe with less then 2 goals a match on average.

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Saturday results: Atromitos - Xanthi 2-3 :@ Benfica - Nacional Madeira 0-0 :lol Levadiakos - Larissa 0-1 :lol Sociedad - Eibar 1-1 :lol Winning Bets: 3/4 Start Bank: 100 units Current Bank: 102,39 units

[johnfash]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Nice one mate!

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Sunday results: Arezzo - Perugia 1-0 :lol Aris Saloniki - Egeotelis 2-0 :lol Belenenses - Sporting 1-0 :lol Legnano - Manfredonia 3-0 :@ Massese - Ancona 1-1 :lol Panathinaikos - Asteras Tripolis 2-0 :lol Sorrento - Sambenedettese 1-1 :lol Taranto - Salernitana 4-2 :@ Trofense - Vizela 0-0 :lol Varzim - Gil Vicente 2-1 :@ Veria - Iraklis Saloniki 1-2 :@ 7 winning bets out of 11 today, however i have to settle for a small loss, because 2 of 3 bets in which i staked 4 units were lost. Winning Bets: 10/15 Previous Bank: 102,39 units New Bank: 101,00 units

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Monday's pick: League: Greece-2 Panserraikos 5/10 3/3 - Kalamata 6/11 2/3 Total 1.91 5/6 At just 1.82 goals average and 73% unders Greece-2 is the best league for under bettors. However, bookies see this also so it's hard to find any decent odds. That's why i had to skip yesterday's games, odds wouldn't go higher as 1.45. But what about this game? Both teams average 2 goals a match or less with only 1 over for Kalamata in a 3-0 loss 2 weeks ago. 1 extra unit looks ok to me. Stake: 3 units @ 1.55 Bwin

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results pfffffffff 3-0 2 goals in last 7 minutes :wall Winning Bets: 10/16 Previous Bank: 101,00 units New Bank: 98,00 units

[johnfash]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Hi mate, I had bet on this one also. I had my bet matched on betfair at 1.68, which I thought was great value. Anyway, the last goal was in the 92nd minute and sometimes all the stats in the world cannot prepare you for a last minute goal like that. My next under 2.5 goal game is Penathinaikos vs Veria in the Greek league 1. On an average basis, using my statistics, this game has an 82% chance of ending in under 2.5 goals!!

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

Hi mate, I had bet on this one also. I had my bet matched on betfair at 1.68, which I thought was great value. Anyway, the last goal was in the 92nd minute and sometimes all the stats in the world cannot prepare you for a last minute goal like that. My next under 2.5 goal game is Penathinaikos vs Veria in the Greek league 1. On an average basis, using my statistics, this game has an 82% chance of ending in under 2.5 goals!!

yeah i know, 1 lost bet doesn't really matter as this strategy is designed to make a profit in the long run, but it always hurts if things like that happen even if you bet only $1. Also since this was the first weekend i started this strategy, i hoped to start with a small profit, but instead of that i start with a loss of 2 units total for this weekend. Now for your pick Panathinaikos - Veria, i just staked 3 units on this match when i was checking some early odds, Sporting Bet offers this one under 2.5 @2.05, while other bookies would not go higher as 1.90 So you better stake now before Sporting Bet discovers their mistake :tongue2

[bozz]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results would the same strategy apply for over 2.5 but opposite example 2/3 last home games to be over 2.5 etc ? if the teams avg say 1.9goals but the last few games for home & away teams were overs, is there a good chance the result will be overs ?

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

would the same strategy apply for over 2.5 but opposite example 2/3 last home games to be over 2.5 etc ? if the teams avg say 1.9goals but the last few games for home & away teams were overs, is there a good chance the result will be overs ?

You may be right, but since in the majority of leagues between 2.4 and 3 goals on average are scored, it's hard to find teams with significant more overs. Of course there are some, but the opponent also must be a high scoring team. And if in the last few games were a few overs, in this strategy the match is excluded.

[johnfash]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Good call sub, I will put some money down on that. I have 2 possible contenders for tomorrow night, but betting over 2.5 goals. They are: Dordrecht vs Eindhoven with a cheeky win on Dordrecht. Helmond vs AGOVV Gud luck!

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Friday's picks: League: France-2 Bastia 11/19 2/3 - Troyes 10/16 2/3 Total 1.67 4/6 Stake: 2 units @ 1.60 Unibet League: France-2 Chateauroux 11/22 3/3 - Dijon 11/20 2/3 Total 1.91 5/6 Stake: 3 units @ 1.56 Betsson League: France-3 Istres 11/24 2/3 - Creteil 10/18 2/3 Total 2.00 4/6 Stake: 2 units @ 1.55 Unibet League: France-2 Sedan 10/24 2/3 - Ajaccio 11/13 3/3 Total 1.76 5/6 Stake: 3 units @ 1.60 Bwin

[bozz]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

You may be right, but since in the majority of leagues between 2.4 and 3 goals on average are scored, it's hard to find teams with significant more overs. Of course there are some, but the opponent also must be a high scoring team. And if in the last few games were a few overs, in this strategy the match is excluded.

Just another question, if im betting on over 2.5 would be the cut off line? For example ive worked out a system and it predicts 2.75 goals will be scored in a particular game, is that enough to suggest the game will be overs or should the cut off line be say 3?

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

Just another question, if im betting on over 2.5 would be the cut off line? For example ive worked out a system and it predicts 2.75 goals will be scored in a particular game, is that enough to suggest the game will be overs or should the cut off line be say 3?

Just try it and we'll see! ;) But i suggest set the line at 3, that will exclude a lot of vulnarable matches. And i also suggest that you pick matches from leagues that average way over 2.5(2.75 minimum). Problem is that the main leagues in Europe(England, Germany, Spain and Italy) are all around 2.6 so you will not find many good bets here. So try Holland, avg. over 3 and set the cutoff line at 3, and you probably can pick 2 or 3 matches.

[johnfash]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Interesting how you guys pick your selections.. I have 7 factors, 3 of which have to be satisfied before the bet is considered. The 4 other factors are worked out using a percentage. The percentages will then be averaged to give an overall percentage of the game going over/under 2.5, and I base my selection on this final %.

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Friday results: Bastia - Troyes 1-0 :lol Chateauroux - Dijon 2-0 :lol Istres - Creteil 0-0 :lol Sedan - Ajaccio 2-1 :@ Winning Bets: 13/20 Previous Bank: 98,00 units New Bank: 98,98 units Saturday's picks: League: Spain-2 Alaves 12/23 2/3 - Sevilla Atletico 12/22 2/3 Total 1.88 4/6 Stake: 2 units @ 1.57 Stan James League: Spain-2 Castellon 12/19 3/3 - Gimnastic 12/26 3/3 Total 1.88 6/6 Stake: 4 units @ 1.57 Stan James League: Greece-1 Iraklis 9/13 2/3 - Atromitos 8/13 2/3 Total 1.53 4/6 Stake: 2 units @ 1.55 Betsson League: Greece-1 Panathinaikos 9/15 3/3 - Veria 8/17 2/3 Total 1.88 5/6 Stake: 3 units @ 2.05 Sporting Bet League: France-1 Strasbourg 12/18 3/3 - St. Etienne 12/29 2/3 Total 1.96 5/6 Stake: 3 units @ 1.62 Stan James

[bozz]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Im gonna give this a try. Im posting my predictions based on my little system: Italy Serie A Milan vs Siena under 2.5 Cagliari vs Parma under 2.5 Sampdoria vs Napoli over 2.5 Atalanta vs Fiorentina under 2.5 Roma vs Reggina over 2.5 Livorno vs Genoa under 2.5 Udinese vs Juve over 2.5 Empoli vs Lazio under 2.5 Torino vs Palermo under 2.5 Note: im keeping stakes minimum Confidence 2/10

[johnfash]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Go for it mate, got nothing to lose if you paper trade for a while. My only game this weekend is Panathinaikos vs Veria. Under 2.5 @ 2.05

[bozz]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

Go for it mate, got nothing to lose if you paper trade for a while. My only game this weekend is Panathinaikos vs Veria. Under 2.5 @ 2.05

Good call just checked the score 1:0 Well i had a shit start 0/2, maybe the sunday games will come through!

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Saturday results: Alaves - Sevilla Atletico 1-0 :lol Castellon - Gimnastic 3-1 :@ Iraklis - Atromitos 1-1 :lol Panathinaikos - Veria 1-0 :lol Strasbourg - St. Etienne 3-0 :@ Another "heartbreaking" loss yesterday, when Strasbourg scored 2 goals in the last 5 minutes :wall Winning Bets: 16/25 Previous Bank: 98,98 units New Bank: 97,37 units Sunday's picks: League: Greece-2 Aigaleo 6/13 2/3 - Kallithea 5/5 3/3 Total 1.64 5/6 Stake: 3 units @ 1.50 Stan James League: Greece-2 Ethnikos Asteras 6/6 3/3 - Agios Dimitrios 6/10 3/3 Total 1.33 6/6 Stake: 4 units @ 1.55 Bwin League: Italy-3A Legnano 11/20 2/3 - Monza 11/15 2/3 Total 1.59 4/6 Stake: 2 units @ 1.50 Bwin League: Greece-1 PAOK 10/23 3/3 - Aris 10/14 2/3 Total 1.85 5/6 Stake: 3 units @ 1.55 Gamebookers League: Italy-3B Taranto 11/20 2/3 - Arezzo 10/20 3/3 Total 1.90 5/6 Stake: 3 units @ 1.50 Bwin

[johnfash]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results I relooked over my working for yesturdays game and put an extra couple of quid on @ 2.2, I cant believe the odds went that high. My selections for today are: Greece League 2 Kalamata vs Ethnikos (under) Ethnikos Asteras vs Aghios (under) Greece League 1 PAOK vs Aris (under) Holland League 1 Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior (over)

[Subzero]

Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Sunday results: Aigaleo - Kallithea 1-2 :@ Ethnikos Asteras - Agios Dimitrios 4-4 :loon:loon:loon:loon Legnano - Monza 1-0 :lol PAOK - Aris 3-0 :@ Taranto - Arezzo 2-2 :@ Complete disaster today...yet another last minute goal gave me a huge loss, and since almost all of my losing matches are those in which i staked 3 or 4 units i decided to adjust my strategy. It's almost impossible to recover losses when your "big bets" don't hit. Winning bets: 17/30 Previous Bank: 97,37 units New Bank: 85,37 units So i reset the bank back to 100 units and start flat betting 3 units starting next week. Also minimum odds have to be 1.55. However, yesterday picked 1 match scheduled for monday: League: France-2 Brest 11/20 2/3 - Nantes 11/21 2/3 Total 1.86 4/6 Stake: 2 units @ 1.60 Unibet So this is the last game according to this strategy. Next week i stake 3 units on each match.