Bookmaking The Short Ones Today (Saturday 26th Jan) Join in if you so wish...

[Falbrav]

Morning. The races, runners and prices to work around for this afternoon then, as follows..... 12.20 Doncaster. KHYBER KIM (1.4) Decent flat form, and then last time showed good ability on hurdling debut with a win. Would set the mark for this race on that effort, so with no trip and ground worries, and improvement looking imminent, he'd be the one they all have to beat and could be very tough to beat if others cannot raise their games. The opposition brings in "Tazbar" as the main and clear danger, and to be fair he wouldn't need too much more as it stands, but would be more exposed than the favourite, therefore vulnerable to him. So couldn't be too confident in him, but does ensure the favourite needs to be at least at his best of last time. "Mexican Bob" , "Golden Alchemist" , "Osako D'Airy" and "Whiteoak" would be next best in and need more than expected, so couldn't be confident in them and we'll just have to hope they raise their games and the favourite under achieves. The remainder simply need more and need to surprise. We have "Khyber Kim" in at 1/2 (1.5) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 1.3 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 12.40 Lingfield. OBERLIN (2.68) He's had three runs, and although failed to progress after an encouraging debut, he was running on turf which clearly didn't suit as well as the aw on debut, and now returns to the aw. So with the form and ability to go well, and no trip and surface worries, he'd be the one they all have to meet and beat. The opposition brings in "Hamalka" and "Garden Party" as the main dangers, and although both wouldn't need too much more on the bare form of things, they would also be a bit more exposed than the favourite, therefore a bit vulnerable to him. Chances as it stands though, so let's hope the favourite fails to find that debut form and progress on it. "Wherry" would be next best in and clear next best, as although needs that bit more than expected, he'd also be very unexposed after just that one run, therefore open to any amount of improvement 'if' finding things to his liking, so let's hope that's the case and he finds plenty. "Precision Break" and "Jal Music" come in next, and obviously need more, so couldn't be confident in them, but it wouldn't be a bucket load they need, so we'll just hope they can raise their games and see a chink or two in the principal's armoury. The remainder need more and need to surprise, so a case of 'here's hoping' concerning those. We have "Oberlin" in at 9/5 (2.8) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.5 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 1.00 Cheltenham. AIGLE D'OR (2.64) Decent French flat form, and last time showed he can do a good job over hurdles too on his British and hurdling debut last time. That limited bare form would give him leading claims in context with this race today, so with no trip and ground worries, and with being open to any amount of improvement, he'd simply be the one they all have to beat. The opposition brings in "What A Friend" , "Razor Royale" and "Hold Em" as the main dangers, and all would have place claims. So all have their chances, but at the same time would be needing that bit more on the bare form, and that bit more on top of that if the favourite goes and improves, so couldn't be too confident in them, but at the same time they should run their races and would be capable of exploiting any chinks that 'may' appear within the favourite's armoury. "Marleybow" , "Helen's Vision" , "Gauvain" , "Junior" and "Evelith Echo" would be next best in, but they would need more than expected and do have their slight questions to answer, so not easy to feel they'll find enough to be winning this, but there's always the chance that the principals may under achieve, and they themselves may raise their games, then of course anything is possible. The remainder simply need more and need to surprise. We have "Aigle D'Or" in at 9/5 (2.8) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.5 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 1.10 Lingfield. MUKTSAB (3.2) He's won his last three races (handicaps) and so comes into this in obvious good form, and form that's good enough to see him go well in context with today's race too. The trip and surface wouldn't be a worry, but the angle in for layers would be the weights that demand at least a repeat of his recent best, and the fact that they 'may' run this at a muddling pace! so let's hope they do, then he may struggle. If he gets to run his race though, then no reason why he shouldn't again go well. The opposition brings in "Benllech" as the main danger, as he too comes into this in winning form and form that's good enough to see him go well in context with today's race, so naturally a bit of ammo for layers. No room for error at the weights and again a muddling pace will throw the race wide open, but trip and surface to suit, therefore every chance of another win. "Kempsey" , "Mine Behind" and "Quality Street" would be next best in and make up the line up, and although they all need that bit more than expected on the recent form of things, they still have their chances of causing plenty of unrest if getting the race run to suit and finding their bests. So need that bit more, but certainly not out of this. We have "Muktsab" in at 23/10 (3.3) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 3.0 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 1.45 Lingfield. SUPER FRANK (2.66) Had to leave the write up on this one as of a late non runner. However all priced up to 100% of my ability, so we'll just go with the price. Our price 9/5 (2.8) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.5 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 1.55 Doncaster. CHOMBA WOMBA (1.97) Decent flat form in Ireland, then came over her to 'Nicky Henderson's' where she's since gone two from two over hurdles, showing good ability and promise. Sets the mark for this race today and has no trip and ground worries, so with being open to a bit more improvement she'd be the one they all have to meet and beat. The opposition brings in "Theatre Girl" as the main danger, as although she needs that bit more than expected on the bare form of things, she would be tough and genuine and will ensure this favourite has no room for any error, so let's hope the favourite fails to improve too much, then we could get a close run race. "Trompette" would be next best in and needs more than expected, so couldn't be confident in her finding what's needed, but would have bits of bare form to get her involved if the principals fail to improve again, so let's just hope she can run to her best (can be a bit hit and miss) and then maybe that'll be enough to see her get involved. The remainder need more and need to surprise, so all we can do is hope they raise their games to another level, or hope the principals under achieve. We have "Chomba Womba" in at 11/10 (2.1) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 1.8 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 2.20 Lingfield. CONFIDENTIALITY (3.15) Another that I haven't had time to do the write up guys. So just the prices to get the mails out at a reasonable time. Our price 23/10 (3.3) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 3.0 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 3.15 Cheltenham. FRANCHOEK (2.08) Very consistent and certainly decent, and has won three of his five hurdles races. Has the bare form that sets the mark for this race and would have conditions to suit, so therefore should be able to run his race which makes him the one to beat as it stands. The opposition brings in "Tatenen" as the main danger, and although he does need to find that bit more than expected as it stands, he does have the potential to get better and better, so with no trip and ground worries it wouldn't be any surprise if he were to improve enough and make this favourite work very hard, so let's hope that's the case. "Serabad" , "Squadron" and "I Predict A Riot" would be next best in, but all would need to improve that bit more than expected, and a bit more on top of that if the principals improve themselves, so couldn't be confident in them, but at the same time they wouldn't be too far off what's needed, and with the latter pair open to improve from their debuts over hurdles, they may just find things to their liking and find enough to cause unrest, so let's just hope that's the case. The remainder would all be lightly raced types and debutants, and all would need more and need to surprise, so all we can do is hope the unexposed nature throws up a surprise or two. We have "Franchoek" in at 7/5 (2.4) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 2.1 or under. 3.25 Lingfield. Mr NAPOLEAN (2.72) Can be a bit hit and miss, but form for new yard is good and he's won two from his last three races. Has the bare form to go well in context with today's race, so with no trip and ground worries he should be able to run his race. The weights demand a repeat of his recent best, so an angle in for layers and no room for error, but at the same time he has conditions to suit and would be in good form, so has every chance of another win. The opposition brings in "Fateful Attraction" , "Sri Kuantan" , "King After" , "Moonlight Fantasy" , "Lord Of Dreams" , "Meditation" and "Stark Contrast" as the main dangers, and they actually make up the line up. All have their differences, but after all said and done they all have their chances of getting involved, so all ensure this favourite has no room for error. The favourite would hold the edge on the recent form of things, and so they'd all be a bit vulnerable to that, but let's just hope one or two of these main dangers get the run of the race, then no reason why they cannot cause unrest. We have "Mr Napolean" in at 2/1 (3.0) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.7 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 3.30 Doncaster. HENNESSY (3.05) Another with just the write guys due to not much time left, and getting the mails out at a reasonable time. Our price 5/2 (3.5) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 3.2 or under. 3.50 Cheltenham. INGLIS DREVER (2.76) Not much I can say about him that nobody already knows. Continues to run well at the highest level, and despite coming on and off the bridal in his races, he always knuckles down and fights to the end. Has the bare form to go very well again this afternoon, so with no trip and ground worries, and a touch of class, he'd have every chance of a win. The opposition brings in "Blazing Bailey" as the main danger, and he'd have the bare and recent form to ensure this favourite has little, if any, room for error. Would be a bit vulnerable to the favourite's battling qualities which may come into play come the end of the race, but certainly has the ability and conditions to go well, so let's hope he runs to his recent best, then that should ensure this favourite has no room for error. "Millenium Royal" and "Lough Derg" would be next best in, but although both would be decent enough horses, they do lack the class of the principals here, and so with needing that bit more than expected anyhow, they may struggle to contain them. However, they would be clear of the remainder, so any mishaps or under achieving from these main protagonists, then these pair would be capable of exploiting them. The remainder would all need degrees of extra and need to surprise, so couldn't be confident in them and a case of 'fingers crossed' for a surprise. "Sonnyanjoe" and "Chief Dan George" would look the more likely to surprise, 'if' of course there's to be one! We have "Inglis Drever" in at 13/8 (2.625) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.32 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 4.00 Lingfield. APHRODISIA (3.45) She didn't show too much in a few maidens, but then went into handicaps and up in trip which has brought about good improvement. Has the bare form that sets the mark for this race this afternoon, so with no trip and surface worries would be the one to beat. Has had a little break since her last run, so worth taking that into account as it 'may' have taken the edge off her, but then again she may have needed it and may come back a better horse! Anyhow, the one to beat as it stands. The opposition brings in "Niqaab" as the main danger from those that have had a run or more, and to be fair there wouldn't be much between them as it stands. However, if knit picking, which we have to, then she would appear to lack that extra gear in the latter stages, therefore a bit vulnerable to a more battling, potentially better animal. So not much at all between her and the favourite, but you'd have to just favour the favourite after all said and done, so let's just hope this main danger runs to her best and ensures the favourite needs his. "Flight Dream" would be next best in from those with experience, but would need that little more than expected and so we couldn't be too confident him. However, hardly that far off what's needed and so 'if' he can find his best and get the run of the race, it wouldn't be any surprise to see him cause plenty of unrest for these principals, so let's hope that's the case. All others with experience would simply need to surprise, so we'll just have to have our fingers crossed concerning those. Several make their flat (rules) debuts coming in from bumpers, and the one that makes by far the most appeal would be, "Outlandish"! Has the bumper form on this surface to suggest he's up to going well in context with this race, so with being open to a bit more improvement and with conditions to suit, he'd certainly be a live contender and ammo for layers, so let's hope he runs his race. The other flat (rules) debutants would need more and need to surprise on their bumper form and if the early market's anything to go by, and so we'll just have to hope the unexposed nature throws up a surprise for us concerning those. We have "Aphrodisia" in at 5/2 (3.5) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 3.2 or under, we'll go in for a lay. All races priced up with non runners taken into account, up until 10:07am. That's what we have to work on for this afternoon then, and you don't need me to tell you how tough it is. This month continues to throw up favourite winners and drifters etc, so very tough, but we're sticking in there awaiting the change when we can cash in. Anyhow, today does look tough and mainly due to far too many races lacking strength in depth, giving us limited ammo against these favourites. Good luck and speak soon with this evening's workings. (what about all those favourites last night!! bookies at Kempton busking on the way home..god it's hard out there lately, but the way it goes in this game) Marc. :ok The rules of play if you fancy joining in this afternoon - The Strategy. You can use a 4 or 5 horse strategy, it's entirely up to the individual. I personally use a 5 horse strategy and I play as follows........... I will pluck a figure from the air to demonstrate as it does not really matter and you can scale up or down to suit your own finances. If you have a total bank of say £3000. Then I would suggest you divide that by 4 which would give you 4 separate banks of £750. So with 4 banks of 750, you put 3 banks aside and only use 1 bank of £750. Your target for the day would be 25% max! ( most got for 10-15% when starting bank building) and to go with the average we'll demonstrate to a 20% target of your bank and so you would have £750 to win £150. Your lays for the day are determined by our prices and when ever one actually hits as a lay price. So if we say it's a lay at 2.5 or under, then that's what you do. So £750 to win £150 and your liability for the first lay that comes along would be 20% of your £750 bank if playing a 5 runner strategy, or obviously 25% of your bank if playing a 4 runner strategy. For this example we'll go with a 5 runner strategy, but it's all the same, just on different scales. So £750 divided by 5 (as that's how runners you're potentially going to play) = £150 and so you have £150 to win £150. If the first value lay comes along, you then lay to win as much of the £150 as you can with the £150 liability. So if it's 2.5, you lay to win £100 or lose the £150. If te lay gets beat, you obviously win £100 and so only need £50 to hit now. Your total daily bank will now be £850 and you will now need only £50 to hit. You have 4 runners potentially to go and so you divide £850 by 4 which gives you £212.50 liability on the next value lay. So when that lay comes along, you have £212.50 to win £50 and if that lay price is say 2.0, you lay to win £50 or lose £50. If this lay happens to win, then you obviously lose £50 and so now your total bank is £800. So with now 3 lays left, you need £100 to hit your target and have £800. So with 3 potential runners left, you divide £800 by 3 and then that's your liability for the next lays race. And so it's obvious how this goes on until you hit, or can't go any further. If you're behind on the day then you ONLY ever play RECOUP your losses on the next lay, but ALWAYS keep to the format of play, by dividing liability by the number of potential lays left. If you break even on your 4th of 5 potential lays. Then CALL IT A DAY as it's far too risky to go to the last lay with no room for error if the worst happens. So that's the basics of the strategy. Trading out.................... Trading out is a big part of our strategy/target play as if we lay at 2.5 and then it drifts to our price or above (Our prices are quoted in the mail determine prices to play at) then we back back for a free lay. You will only win a tiny amount or break even, and this lay now becomes a trade and will NOT be part of the strategy. It becomes just a free bet and nothing to do with the strategy. If the free bet is successful then obviously you take the winnings, which won't be a lot and take them off of your target which your aiming for and then proceed with the strategy. So all it is is that you always take a guaranteed profit or free bet and play the strategy around it. That's how we play the strategy and any questions then please ask. Regards. Marc. P.s Traders obviously either see what lay prices are avaliable at the time the emails sent, then lay them and try to back back at our own prices during the day or in running,. or they trade in their own individual way to suit their own preferences. Independent players will just use the write ups and prices and do what they feels best. They usually let me know how they get on and so we get an indication of how their days went. Obviously you can pick the best way to play to suit yourself, but the prices are there and so entirely up to your good self.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Bookmaking The Short Ones Today (Saturday 26th Jan) Join in if you so wish... :clap Great write up Falbrav! - Good Luck today mate :hope I wouldn't go against Henderson's short price Fav's today as his horses have been in blistering form especially anything Fitz is riding. If there was any of them that I would be suspicious of is Aigle D'Or in the 1st at Cheltenham as it does not yet have the experience of some of it's competitors and at curent odds of 11/8 I think that is measly odds for just 1 winning run! Fact Fitz has decided to go to Doncaster as well speaks volumes to me with great winning rides possible: Khyber Kim Chomba Womba All Star