Kempton 'Evening' Friday 25th January..(My thoughts - join in if you wish)

[Falbrav]

Afternoon. Workings for this evening's racing then, as follows....... 6.20 Kempton. KING OF CHARM (2.76) Was struggling up until last time when he showed more like his true ability. That form of last time would entitle him to go well in context with this race this evening, so with the slight drop in trip not a problem, and the surface no problem, he 'should' be able to run to his recent best, therefore every chance of a win. The opposition brings in "Lady Hopeful" and "Time Share" as the main dangers, and although both have their differing race make ups, they still bring in the bare form and ability to ensure this favourite has no room at all for error, therefore bits of ammo for layers. Both would have their 'very' slight questions to answer, so most recent form gives the favourite the edge, but not much in this after all said and done, so let's hope these main dangers can get the race run to suit and find their bests, then they should make this favourite work very hard. "Borzoi Maestro" and "Ava's World" would be next best in, but both would need that bit more than expected and so we couldn't be confident in them. Saying that, they'd not be too far off what's needed, so 'if' they can find their bests, get the race run to suit, then maybe see a chink or two within the principals armoury, they'd then be capable of causing plenty of unrest. So they do need that bit more than expected, but it's possible that certain things may go their way, then they can get involved where it matters. "Lady Fas" would be the rag, and deservedly so, as would need too much on the bare form of things and wouldn't be showing too many signs of showing it! so needs to surprise us. We have "King Of Charm" in at 2/1 (3.0) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.7 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 6.50 Kempton. WYNBERG (1.91) Yet to win after eight attempts, but after a his form tailing off a bit, he then found it again last time to run a decent enough race. That recent form would be good enough to see him as the one they all have to beat in context with this evening's race, so with the drop in trip looking more suitable and no surface worries, he does have every chance of that first win. Has a tricky draw to work from, so needs to be alert early, but not a strong race and 'should' be capable of getting a good position early which should set him up. Would also be the trainers first winner too actually, so he'll certainly be trying hard you'd think, and has been found a weak race. The opposition brings in "Little Finch" and "Whitcombe Flyer" as the main dangers, and although both have bits and pieces of form to suggest the favourite has no room for error, they'd still be weak looking horses who need to up their recent games, so with the favourite seemingly back in form now, they could struggle to contain him. However, they do have their chances as it stands, so any slight chinks in the favourite's armoury would see them take full advantage, 'if' of course they find their own bests. "Miss Deeds" , "Ocean Glory" and "Far Song" would be next best in, and although all have their differences, slight questions to answer, and several points between them within the early market!, they all bring the same sort of chance to the race after all said and done, and that would be minor place claims. So couldn't be confident in them, but this is a weak race, so 'if' they can find their bests and get the run of the race, then no surprise to see either of them take advantage of any chinks that 'may' appear within the Principal's armoury. So couldn't be confident in them, but possibilities with how the race could turn out. The remaining pair of "Ballyhealy Laby" and "Stoneacre Baby" would be needing more than expected and need to surprise us, so couldn't be hoping too much on these to beat the favourite, so all we can do is hope for a surprise as far as they're concerned. We have "Wynberg" in at 11/10 (2.1) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 1.8 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 7.50 Kempton. BRIDGEWATER BOYS (2.62) He'd be a very consistent animal around this level, and would know how to win too. Won two of his last three races, so comes into this in obvious good form, and with going back into handicap company this evening, it all points to another decent run at the weights. The trip and surface wouldn't be a problem, so all in all would have every chance of another win. The opposition brings in "Mon Petite Amour" , "Magic Warrior" , "Satindra" , "Alexandra Guru" and "Play Up Pompey" as the main dangers, and despite them all having their different race make ups, they all have an equal looking chance in my opinion after all said and done, and that would be place claims. So all have their chances, but non would be as consistent as this favourite, and all will need to find their bests to cope with him. So the favourite certainly deserved of his tag, but on the bare form and weights combined he wouldn't have much room for error, so let's just hope one or two of these main dangers can get the race run to suit and then cause him plenty of unrest. The outsider "Bramcote Lorne" wouldn't be totally out of this, but does need to find more than expected, and does have to prove a few things too many. However, 'if' finding things to his liking, then he may go and raise his game slightly and that's all it would take to hit the frame, so let's hope that's the case. We have "Bridgewater Boys" in at 2/1 (3.0) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 2.7 or under. 9.20 Kempton. CONTRA MUNDUM (1.65) He's returned to the flat in recent times and that's proved a very good move. Won his last two races (handicap and claimer) and won them very well too. Has the bare form that sets the mark for this race this evening, so naturally the one they all have to beat, but although the form and potential improvement is there, he does switch to a faster surface this evening and does have a double penalty to deal with, so not all as straight forward as the bare form indicates. Saying that though, he has won really well of late and 'if' taking to this faster surface (handled firm on turf, so has every chance of handling it) then the double penalty may not be enough to stop him winning well again! So form recent points very favourably to him, but does have to prove a couple of slight things this evening. The opposition brings in "Megalala" as the main danger, as he too has won his last two races (claimers) and comes into this in good form too. Does need to find a bit more than expected on the bare form and weights combined though, and needs to prove this extra furlong's what he wants (should be fine over trip), so couldn't be too confident in him, but at the same time he handles this surface well and so ensures the favourite needs to be doing so also! So needs more, but looks sure to make the favourite work hard if he fails to take to the surface. "Come What July" , "Ernmoor" and "Arthur's Dream" would be next best in and need that bit more than expected after all said and done, so although all have their differences, they still have claims of hitting a minor spot, but will need to run to their bests and then hope the principals fail to deliver their recent bests. So couldn't be confident in them, but certain things could go their ways, then no reason why they cannot get more involved than expected and cause unrest. The remainder would all need degrees of extra and need to surprise, so again couldn't be confident in them, and all in all we'll just have to hope several under achieve ahead of them in ranks, then they can get involved. So they need to surprise basically. Have to mention "Rubilini" has been in for a bit of support this afternoon, so although that may be down to 'Natalia Gemelova' supporters, it's still worth noting with the minor places up for grabs here. We have "Contra Mundum" in at 8/11 (1.727) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 1.5 or under, we'll go in for a lay. All races priced up with non runners taken into account, up until 16:42pm. That's what we have to work on for this evening then. Not enough for five runner strategists, but four runner strategists will have a go. No room at all for error early, but we have enough within our armouries to get involved, so we'll take our satchels to Kempton Park this evening and try to nick a bit. Good luck and speak soon... Marc. :ok

[Falbrav]

Re: Kempton 'Evening' Wednesday 25th January..(My thoughts - join in if you wish) .....post deleted...