Kempton 'Evening' Wednesday 23rd January..(My thoughts - join in if you wish)

[Falbrav]

Afternoon. Workings for this evening's racing then, as follows..... 6.50 Kempton. AVOCA DANCER (3.05) She can be hit and miss, but ran a decent race last time and the form of that run would entitle her to go well in context with this race this evening. The trip and surface wouldn't be a problem, and the weights of the race suggest she can go well if running to her recent best, so all in all would have every chance of a win. The opposition brings in "Double Valentine" as the main danger, as she gained a win last time in beating the favourite. However, despite there not being much at all between her and the favourite as it stands, she did have the run of the race last time with coming from the back under a good ride, and this evening she's worse off at the weights. So after all said and done the favourite should be getting the better of her this evening, but all depends on how the race is run to be fair, so not much between them at all, so let's hope this main danger gets the run of the race again and goes well. "Lawdy Miss Clawdy" and "Mr Loire" would be next best in , and although they do need that little more as it stands, they'd only need to find their bests and get the race run to suit, then it would be no surprise to see them cause unrest for the principals, so let's hope they're on their games this evening. "Royal Orissa" , "Prettilini" (well supported), "Royal Senga" and "Piccostar" would be needing more and couldn't be seriously fancied, but although all have their differences, they also have bits and pieces of bare form to suggest they can take advantage of any chinks that may appear within the main protagonist's armoury, so couldn't be confident in them, but 'if' everything pans out for them and they find their bests, then it wouldn't be a surprise to see either of them stick around at the business end, then anything is possible after that. The remainder would all need more and need to surprise, so although they have minor place claims if others under achieve, they also have a few too many things to prove, so need to surprise us. We have "Avoca Dancer" in at 2/1 (3.0) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.7 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 7.20 Kempton. GEORGIE THE FOURTH (2.84) Made her debut last July at this venue, and to be fair ran a decent race showing promise and potential. However, hasn't been seen since, so needs to prove her fitness coming into this race. The trip and surface is fine, so with her limited bare form giving her chances anyhow, she'd be open to improve if fit enough, so has every chance of a win. The opposition brings in "Tension Mounts" and "Baron Court" as the main dangers on all known limited bare form, and both would bring enough to this race to ensure the favourite needs to be at least on her debut form, therefore needs to be fit! so both bits of ammo for layers and open to improve a little themselves, so let's hope they find things to their liking and make this favourite work very hard. "Cavalry Guard" would be next best in and has the form to go well, but would be more exposed than the principals, therefore a little vulnerable to them. Should run his race though, so let's just hope his standard holds up. The others that have had a run or more would simply need degrees of extra and need to surprise, so we couldn't be confident in any of them, but at the same time they'd be open to a bit more improvement, so we'll just hope they find things to their liking and improve that bit more than expected. If choosing a couple over the rest, then "Herrbee" and "Mile-a-minute-murphy" could be the ones. Several debutants line up and all could be anything, but the one that makes most appeal on breeding and the early market would be, "Brave Hawk". All to prove on debut, but should be able to meet and pass this standard in good time, so let's just hope he's forward enough for this and hen that may be enough to cause unrest for the principals. The other debutants would appear to need more and need to surprise if the early market's anything to go by, so all we can do is hope the unexposed nature throws up a surprise or two for us. We have "George The Fourth" in at 5/2 (3.5) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 3.2 or under. 7.50 Kempton. HOME (2.64) He was winless after ten starts and looking very frustrating, but then dropped down in grade to get a win, then won again last time! So winning has certainly given him confidence, and his recent form would give him every chance in context with this evening's race. The trip's fine, and although both his wins have come on Southwell's slower surface, he does handle this quicker surface, therefore has every chance of another win, 'if' putting it all in again. The opposition brings in "Ya-man-mick-mccann" and "Bridge Of Fermoy" as the main dangers, and despite them having differing race make ups, they still both bring enough to the race to ensure this favourite has no room at all for error, so both bits of ammo for layers. Both should be able to run their races, so let's hope they do just that and then they should make the favourite work very hard. "Coole Dodger" and "Too Grand" would be next best in and make up the line up, and although they have overall make ups to suggest they need that bit more than expected to be winning this, it wouldn't be too much to be fair, and 'if' they can get the race run to suit and muster up their bests, then it wouldn't be any surprise at all to see them go well and cause the principals plenty of unrest. So they do need that bit more than expected, but certainly not out of this. We have "Home" in at 21/10 (3.1) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 2.8 or under. 8.20 Kempton. TAKAAMUL (2.96) Can be a bit hit and miss, but certainly found his best last time with a win. The bare form of that run would make him the one they all have to beat in context with this evening's race, so with no trip and surface worries, he'd be the one to beat as it stands. The weights demand at least a repeat of last time's best, but a capable apprentice on board will help with that, and conditions to suit, so therefore should run his race and every chance of the double. The opposition brings in "Wizby" , "Postmaster" , "Jomus" , "Cerifiable" and "Shunkawakhan" as the main dangers, and despite them having their differences, slight questions to answer, and several points between them within the early market, they all bring the same sort of chance to the race after all said and done, and that would be place claims. So all have their chances, but will need to find their bests and get the race run to suit, so let's hope they do. Not much between them on the overall bare form and weights combined, but the favourite would be the more solid option on recent form and the race make up, so deserves his tag, but at the same time has no room for error. The remainder would all need degrees of extra and have a few things to prove, so couldn't be confident in them and they need to surprise us. We have "Takaamul" in at 21/10 (3.1) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.8 or under, we'd go in for a lay. 8.50 Kempton. LEGEND ERRY (2.76) He's been in very good form recently with racking up a hat-trick, and his bare form would entitle him to go well again this evening. It's tougher this evening though to be honest, as despite no trip and surface worries, the weights do give certain others equal looking chances, therefore he'll probably need to find a bit more improvement. Capable of that though with being in such good form, so although needs no less than his recent best, he does have conditions to suit and 'could' go and find a shade more, so every chance of the four-timer. The opposition brings in "Jack Rolfe" , "Masked" , "Pocket Too" and "Pret-a-porter" as the main dangers, and despite all having their differences and several points between them within the early market, they all have the same sort of chance after all said and done, and that would be live place claims. So all ensure this favourite has no room at all for error, and if either of them can find their bests again, then they'd make the favourite improve a little more. So all bits of ammo for layers, and let's hope they get the race run to suit and make this favourite work very hard. The remainder would all need more and need to surprise, so couldn't be confident in any of them causing unrest, so just a case of fingers crossed for a surprise from them. We have "Legend Erry" in at 12/5 (3.4) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 3.1 or under. All races priced up with non runners taken into account, up until 15:47pm. So an assault on Kempton it is then, but no room at all for error early with only the five to work around. We still have enough within our armoury to go into battle, so discipline to the maximum and take advantage of any prices that come our way. Good luck and speak soon.... Marc.

[Falbrav]

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