Southwell Tuesday 22nd Jan....My thoughts (join in if you so wish).......

[Falbrav]

Morning. Only the one meeting on today at Southwell (flat) due to the abandonment's of two jumps meetings, so again this month the weather takes its toll amongst it's very up and down nature as a whole. Anyhow, let's move on..... 1.30 Southwell. WHAT'S FOR TEA (2.84) She's only won once in fourteen attempts, but would be consistent enough and did prove herself on this slower of the aw surfaces last time, and her bare form would set the mark for this race today. She goes up a little in trip which looks sure to suit on all evidence to date, and if all goes well she may improve a shade for it, and if that's the case then should go close. Every chance as it stands anyhow, therefore every chance of a win. The opposition brings in "Wee Buns" as the main danger from those that have had a run or more, but he would need that bit more on the bare form of things, would be a bit hit and miss, and would need to prove himself on this surface! So couldn't be confident in him, but 'if' he takes to this surface and runs to his best, then it could bring a little improvement, which in turn could see him find enough to cause unrest for this favourite, so let's hope that's the case. "Arkando" would be next best in, as although also needs that bit more than expected and has a couple of slight questions to answer, she'd be very unexposed after just the one start (showed a bit of promise), so 'if' finding things to her liking, then no surprise to see her improve enough to cause unrest, so again we'll hope that's the case. "Carnival Dream" , "Sir Joey" and "Don Picolo" would be next best in from those with experience, but these would need degrees of extra and need to surprise, so we couldn't be confident in them. They do have minor place claims though, so if they can muster up their bests and get the race run to suit them, then they'd be capable of causing unrest if the principals show a chink or two within their armouries. So need more, but not totally out of this with the possible ways the race could go. "Jazz Romance" would simply need to surprise, as needs far too much on what's been shown so far, so we can only hope his unexposed nature throws up a shock!. "So Sublime" would be the only debutant liming up and could be anything, and to be fair he'd have the breeding and future hopes to suggest he'd be up to going well in context with this race. Should meet and pass this standard in good time, so let's hope he finds things to his liking this afternoon and then he's forward enough to cause plenty of unrest. The early market suggests he's ready to run well enough, so let's hope that's how it turns out. We have "What's For Tea" in at 2/1 (3.0) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.7 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 2.30 Southwell. BONNIE PRINCE BLUE (2.52) Can be a bit inconsistent, but nothing wrong with his recent runs in context with this race, and his win last time also proved he has no worries on this slower of the aw surfaces. Recent bare form gives him chances of going well again in context with this race, and so with no surface and trip concerns, he should be able to run his race. The weights pan out to ensure he needs at least a repeat of his recent best, so now layers have an angle in with him having no room for error if certain others run their races, but with conditions suitable and in good recent form, he'd simply have every chance of another win. The opposition brings in "Kabeer" , "Red Romeo" , "Electric Warrior" and "Lucky Kyllachy" as the main dangers, and although all have their differences, several points between them within the early market, and need that slight bit more on the overall bare form of things, they'd still all have the same sort of chance after all said and done, and would have a weight combined with their bare form to suggest this favourite has no room at all for error. So certainly not without their chances, so let's hope they get to run their races and make this favourite pull it all out. "Evens And Odds" , "Jamieson Gold" and "Will He Wish" would be next best in and make up the line up, but all would need that bit more than expected to cause unrest, and all would have their slight questions to answer. So couldn't be confident in any of them, but as always with not being a million miles off what's needed, they'd only need to find things to their liking and find their bests again, and then they'd be capable of causing unrest and getting into the shake up 'if' seeing any chinks within the principal's armoury. We have "Bonnie Prince Blue" in at 7/4 (2.75) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.44 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 3.00 Southwell. NOBLE PLUM (1.85) A 'Sir Mark Prescott' filly who won her maiden with improvement on her third attempt, and then went into handicaps and has improved even more. Last time's win was a good effort, and the bare form of that run would give her leading claims in context with today's race. She also proved last time that she handled this slower aw surface well, so with more improvement to come she'd have every chance of defying the 6lb penalty, therefore the one they all have to beat, and could be tough to beat depending on how much improvement she actually finds. The opposition brings in "Three Boars" , "Bentley Brook" , "Kylkenny" , "Calculating" , "Maslak" and "Pass The Port" as the main dangers, and although all have their different race make ups and several points between them within the early market, they all still bring the same sort of chance to the race after all said and done, and that would be place claims. So all certainly have their chances as it stands, but at the same time all of them would look vulnerable to this favourite's potential improvement! so couldn't be confident in any of these main dangers, but most 'should' be able to run their races, therefore if the favourite's not on her game they'd be more than capable of making her work hard, so let's hope that's the case. "Kanisorn" , "Victory Quest" and "Turn Of Phrase" would be next best in and have minor place claims, so obviously all need that bit more again and will need this favourite to under achieve, or get trouble in running. 'If' the favourite is off her game for any reason though, they'd then be hopeful of giving the main dangers a run for their money, so they do need more than expected, but only need one horse (the favourite obviously) to under achieve, then anything is possible. "Trachonitis" would be the outsider and deservedly so, as needs to find too much more and has a few too many things to prove, so simply needs to surprise. We have "Noble Plum" in at Evens (2.0) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 1.7 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 3.30 Southwell. TOWN AND GOWN (2.76) She's yet to win after five attempts, but would be gradually improving all the time, and would have the bare form that sets the mark for this race today. So the one to beat as it stands, but she does need to prove herself on this slower aw surface, and would need to prove her fitness after a mini break. Apparently she's working well enough to run her race, so all down to acting on the surface to determine whether she runs her race or not. 'If' she does handle the surface, then she's have every chance of a win, and a chance of improving for the slower surface, therefore a bit to prove, but at the same time every chance of that first win if all goes to her liking. Have to mention she's trained by 'John Gosden' who has limited runners here and a good record, so runners from this stable tend to go well. The opposition brings in "Molly Ann" as the main danger on all known bare and recent form, and although she's yet to win after five attempts too, she's proved she can go on this surface, and would only need a little on the bare form of things with this favourite, so every chance from a bare form and potential perspective. The trip's a slight shorter than she's used to, so a 'very' slight question to answer there, but this surface is slow and so it should be fine in all honesty. So every chance and ammo for layers. "Helping Hand" , "Kirkie" and "Brunton Blue" would be next best in from those that have had a run or more, and although all have their differences, slight questions to answer, and need that bit more than expected as it stands, they'd also be very unexposed after just the one run each, therefore 'if' they find things to their liking, they should then go and improve, and 'could' improve enough to cause plenty of unrest for the principal's, so let's hope that's the case. "Marquis De Louvois" , "Miss Double Daisy" and "Lechero" would be next best in and obviously need even more and need to surprise, so couldn't be confident in them, but again they'd be unexposed and open to improvement if all goes to their liking, so let's hope they enjoy the run of the race, then maybe they can improve that bit more than expected and cause a bit of unrest for the main protagonists, then anything is possible after that. "Red Barnet" would be the rag and deserves to be, as looks exposed and needs to find too much more than shown, so simply needs to surprise. "Boss Hog" would be of interest though, as although has it all to prove on debut, and with trainer 'Paul Blockley' having a below average strike rate with debutants, he should be meeting and beating this standard in good time apparently (although will come on for this, naturally), so all we can do is hope he's forward enough for this and causes unrest. We have "Town And Gown" in at 15/8 (2.875) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.56 or under, we'll go in for a lay. All races priced up with non runners taken into account, up until 10:02am. So just the four to work around then, and that spells no play for five runner builders and rollers, obviously!. Four runner players will have a go, but no room at all for error early, so discipline to the maximum and take advantage of any prices that come our way. The markets themselves appear to be wised up this morning, so we'll need plenty of fluctuation to determine any bets, but that's sure to come one way or the other, so let's just sit tight and take any prices that may come our way. Good luck and speak soon..... Marc.

[Falbrav]

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