Wolverhampton Sat 19th Jan....My thoughts.......

[Falbrav]

.........on the few short priced runners, and what price to oppose them etc....... Afternoon. Workings for this evening then, as follows....... 7.50 Wolverhampton. BISCADOR (3.15) Returns (maybe!) to the scene of yesterday's second, and has the overall form to go well again in context with this race this evening. However, he also has his slight questions to answer with the trip and the fact he has to be on his "A" game again after yesterday at the weights, so will certainly need the race run to suit and to find his best, but 'if' he does then no reason why he shouldn't go close to another win. Form over this trip would need slight improvement upon, but capable of that if the race pans out in his favour. The opposition brings in "Rebel Raider" as the main danger, as he returns to the level this evening after doing well enough over hurdles, and brings enough to the race to suggest he can ensure this favourite needs his best, so a bit of ammo for layers. Returning to a faster surface now will be a bit different to his hurdling recently, but handled this surface well in the past, so with no trip worries and being in good heart, he'd have every chance at the weights to make this favourite work hard, so let's hope that's the case. "Mid Valley" , "Weet For Ever" and "Mariaverdi" would be next best in, and although all have their differences, slight questions to answer, several points between them within the early market, and need that slight bit more on the bare form and weights combined, they'd still all bring enough to the race to take advantage of any chinks that may appear within the principal's armoury, so 'if' they find things to their liking and muster up their bests, then they'll be knocking at the door awaiting answers from the two main protagonists. "Kirkhamerton" makes up the line up and would need more than expected on all known recent form, but he does have back-form that gives him claims, so although we could never be confident in him, we can always hope he finds that back-form again this evening. Wouldn't hold my breath to be honest... We have "Buscador" in at 23/10 (3.3) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 3.0 or under, we'll go in for a lay. 8.20 Wolverhampton. SILVER HOTSPUR (2.62) He's won his last two races (handicaps) and so comes into this in good form, and form that's good enough to see him go well again in context with this race tonight. Switches back to this faster surface this evening from Southwell's slower surface recently, but he handles both well enough and so shouldn't be a concern. The main worry would be the weights, as they demand at least a repeat of his recent best and so now he 'certainly' needs a decent pace (should get it) to run his race, then still needs things to go his way regarding traffic etc! So has the ability and form to win this, but no room at all for error as it stands. The opposition brings in "Sion Hill" and "Sovereignty" as the main dangers, and although they have their differences and need that slight bit more on the recent form, the weights bring them more into things, and to be honest there's not much at all between them and the favourite at the weights, so both would be bits of ammo for layers. Both also need their bests though, so will need the race run to suit, but that's all possible and let's hope it's the case then they can make the favourite work very hard for his hat-trick. "Mister Always" , "Avoncreek" and "Maiden Investor" would be next best in, and again they have their differences, slight questions to answer, and several points between them within the early market, but they still bring the same sort of chance to the race in my opinion and that would be minor place claims. So couldn't be confident in any of them, but if taking their best form and weights combined, then they'd only need to find that best, get the race run to suit and see a chink or two in the principal's armoury, then no reason why they cannot get involved and cause unrest. The remainder would need degrees of extra and have a few too many things to prove, so need to surprise and we'll just have to hope they do just that! We have "Silver Hotspur" in at 21/10 (3.1) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 2.8 or under. 8.50 Wolverhampton. Mr LAMBROS (3.05) He seems to be over his problems with winning his last two races (handicaps), and the bare form of those would give him claims of the hat-trick in context with this evening's race. The trip and surface wouldn't be a problem, and he'll probably (doesn't have to) try and make all again, or race very prominently (traders be aware), so has chances of getting all his own way again and if that's the case then he'll make sure they all need to be on their "A" games. The weights do ensure he needs at least a repeat of his recent best if certain others run their races, so no room for error, but in fine recent form and could get the race run to suit, therefore every chance of the hat-trick. The opposition brings in "Danetime Lord" as the main danger, as he has the bare form to go well, but the problem with him would be the weights and overall bare form combined! they do leave him with a bit to find, but looking at all the recent form on offer, then he still has chances of going close if getting the race run to suit and finding that recent best, so let's hope he keeps up his recent form, then hope that a few fail to find their own best form. "Teasing" , "Divertimenti" , "Bobski" , "Wessex" , "Dudley Docker" and "Precious Star" would be next best in and make up the line up, and although all have their differences, slight questions to answer, several points between them withing the early market, and need that bit more as it stands! they all bring the same sort of chance to the race in my opinion after all said and done, and that would be minor place claims. So all need more than expected and we couldn't be confident in them, but they're still entitled to a certain amount of respect as of not being 'too' far off the mark on their best form and weights combined, so we'll just have to hope they improve on recent exploits, get things go their way, then maybe they can get close enough late on to cause unrest for the principals, and 'if' that happens, then anything is possible late on in the race. We have "Mr Lambros" in at 12/5 (3.4) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 3.1 or under. All races priced up with non runners taken into account, up until 15:24pm. No strategy play this evening with just the three to work around, but traders will go in and try to win a bit. I'm having the evening off, but will be back in the morning for tomorrow's action. Good luck traders. Marc.

[Falbrav]

Re: Wolverhampton Sat 19th Jan....My thoughts....... .......The results of last night's play...... The 1st runner we wanted a lay price of 3.0, and with the price trading higher and not coming down to us at all after posting, we all had to avoid the race. The lay did well to win, so a very good leave... The 2nd runner we wanted a lay price of 2.8, and with easily getting that and shorter, we had a lay at 2.8 max. The lay was nicely beaten and so a good result..... The 3rd runner we wanted a lay price of 3.1, and with getting shorter than that on arrival, we had a lay at anything between 2.8 and 3.1. The price then drifted out to our own price of 3.4 and beyond before the off, so a chance for traders to have that 'free' lay before the race. The lay/trade went and won, so unfortunate, but no damage done with the 'free' bet. So 2 from 3 go and win (66.66%), but we made a tiny bit and so well played. No strategy play with just the 3 to work around, but traders did their jobs and so good to see. Marc. :ok