Bookies Odds Compiler System

[Gingertipster]

The Bookies Odds Compiler, Early Prices System A while ago I put a thread in this section with a question asking if anyone knew of a system that actively seeked out value. Considering every horse in a race as a possible bet. After further thought I have come up with a system that I believe might just do that. Have not done any trials or anything, so it could yet fail abysmally. But we shall see. Part 1. Theory The point (hopefully) of my system is to try and let the bookies odds compilers work out who the best value bets are. If we get value then profit will come, without us punters having to even look at form. Backing any horse that about 40% (or more) odds compilers on oddschecker believe is value. Bookmakers work by using an odds compiler to find the probable percentage chance of each horse in the race. Then add the bookies mark up to those figures. Sorry to go over this again but it is imperative to the system. e.g. In a 6 horse race where the odds compiler believes each horse has the same chance of winning. 100 divided by 6 = 16.67 therefore each horse has a 16.67% chance of winning. If a punter could place an equal sum on all runners at 5/1 he breaks even. So Mr. Bookie adds the mark up to offer 9/2 (18.18%) all runners, working to 109.08%. If a horse was unexposed and / or difficult to fathom the true percentage; he could add a bigger mark up to a particular horse. In this case bringing the price of such a horse to 4/1. Provided there is enough competition it will never go over this amount of mark up, otherwise the bookmaker would do no business. i.e. With a horse a particular bookie believes has a true 16.67% (5/1) chance of winning, it will never be offered at worse than 4/1 (20%). Therefore, say we see one bookie offering the “best price in the village” at 5/1 and another bookie is offering only 7/2. We can presume the bookies odds compiler who is offering the 7/2 believes that horse is value at 5/1. Unless there are so few bookies pricing up or they are working to a very large percentage.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Bookies Odds Compiler System The Bookies Odds Compiler System Part 2 General rules 1) So if we do not bet in races where they sometimes work to bigger margins, ordinary maidens, ordinary novice hurdles or ordinary novice chases. More competitive novice races may be o.k. 2) Or in races where there are too few bookies betting as to make it uncompetitive, only when 12 bookies or more are betting. 3) It may be best to use oddschecker, where you can see about 17 bookies prices at once, plus exchange prices. For exchange prices it is neccersary to deduct the 5% (or whatever) commission in your calculations. 4) STICK TO EARLY PRICES ONLY, otherwise we end up backing any 5/1 shot where the rest of the 5/1 has gone. It also prevents the manipulation of the market by the betting public (market moves both positive and negative). We need what each odds compiler thinks, not the bookmakers customers opinion. 5) To qualify to be backed a best priced horse must be considered value by about 40% of the bookmakers and exchanges in oddschecker.