Is this a +EV call?

[Jonne]

Hånd T4-56588070-5, Startet kl. 22-12-2007 14:22 (EST) Bord 'Angeles': 20-20 No Limit HE (TournamentChips) Plads 0: Sininen (1,500 i chips) Plads 1: eusebio56 (1,430 i chips) Plads 2: pedrini (1,400 i chips) Plads 3: dhobratz (1,900 i chips) Plads 4: -birren- (1,500 i chips) Plads 5: urgehal (1,470 i chips) Plads 6: Novartis3 (1,135 i chips) Plads 7: xMATTSx (1,370 i chips) (på knappen) Plads 8: Jonnepoker (1,480 i chips) Plads 9: mikkojoki (1,815 i chips) *** Blind Bet-runde *** : Jonnepoker : Sæt Blind (10) mikkojoki : Sæt Blind (20) Uddelt til Jonnepoker: Dk Uddelt til Jonnepoker: Ds *** Pre-Flop *** : Uddelt til dhobratz: Ks Uddelt til dhobratz: Eh Uddelt til Jonnepoker: Dk Uddelt til Jonnepoker: Ds Sininen : Passe eusebio56 : Passe pedrini : Passe dhobratz : Satse (100) -birren- : Passe urgehal : Passe Novartis3 : Passe xMATTSx : Passe Jonnepoker : Forhøje (250) mikkojoki : Gå med (240) dhobratz : Forhøje (1,800) dhobratz : All In (1,900) Jonnepoker : Gå med (1,220) Jonnepoker : All In (1,480) mikkojoki : Passe *** Flop *** : 9r Kh 6s *** Turn *** : [ 9r Kh 6s ] 3s *** River *** : [ 9r Kh 6s 3s ] 2r Uddelt til dhobratz: Ks Uddelt til dhobratz: Eh Uddelt til Jonnepoker: Dk Uddelt til Jonnepoker: Ds dhobratz : Vis kort Jonnepoker : Vis kort *** RESUME *** Pot: 3,640 | Gebyr: 0 Board: [ 9r Kh 6s 3s 2r ] Sininen tabte 0 eusebio56 tabte 0 pedrini tabte 0 dhobratz satsede 1,900, vandt 3,640, netto 1,740 Viser [ Ks Eh ] (et par konger) -birren- tabte 0 urgehal tabte 0 Novartis3 tabte 0 xMATTSx tabte 0 Jonnepoker tabte 1,480 Viser [ Dk Ds ] (et par dronninger) mikkojoki tabte 260 Forhøje = Raise Gå med = call D= Queen E= Ace K= king Dunno why it's in Danish, but hope you understand what's happening anyway :) Now, I'm sat with QQ on the SB, it's VERY early in the game, think 3-4 hands in. Dhobratz raises 100, he's obviously not after blinds, normally you'd just raise 60-80, so it's quite obvious he's after an AI, that's what's normal at this level anyway. So, should I raise, knowing that he wanted an all in, as far as I see it his probable hand range would be [J,j - AA and Aks/ako] Now, I'm a big favorite against the JJ, split with QQ Against JJ 81 - 19 % = EV+ 62 % QQ 50 - 50 = Ev 0 KK 19- 81 = ev-62 % AA 19- 81 = ev - 62 % AKs = 54 - 46 = ev + 8 % AKo = 56- 43 = ev+ 13 % Now there's a good chance of getting dominated in this hand range, and a lot of players would just raise the pot and call a reraise with AKs/o to see the flop and make the play from their, but there's also a higher chance of hitting AKs/o as you're shooting for 8 cards? Don't really know how to calculate whether or not it was a good play. Any help? :)

[Jonne]

Re: Is this a +EV call? Found a brilliant program called pokerstove, you most probably know of that already. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 47.366% 45.79% 01.58% 164644764 5675268.00 { QQ } Hand 1: 52.634% 51.06% 01.58% 183588540 5675268.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } So basically it was actually a bad call IF the range is right. Now if we include 1010 the equation gives 52,35 % so that makes it a 2,35 % ev+ call right? Now there's also the possibility of meeting some idiot at this level that's ready to go all in with anything, but seem pretty unlikely with the preflop raise etc. So now the question should be, what is the likely range?