AJ Posted November 23, 2007 Share Posted November 23, 2007 A guy is betting others that he can clear over $10k net profit over the next month, just by playing $27 turbo SnGs on Stars Apparently it's never been done before, I don't fancy his chances, daily updates here for a bit of interest http://www.sitandgochallenge.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodger Posted November 23, 2007 Share Posted November 23, 2007 Re: $10k in a month Getting bogged down with the Maths on this one but, using rough figures, I see it like this: 1st=112.50, 2nd=67.50, 3rd=45.00 If he averages 1-2-3-unplaced in every 4 games, this will give him 225-108 profit, which is 107 or just less than 27 per game. Do you count the fee in ROI??? Anyway, I think this gives him an ROI of 100%...108 to profit 107 every 4 games. But he has to maintain this over 370 games in 31 days to hit his target of 10,000 profit. (370 x 27 = 9990) Any bad run will greatly increase the number of games. I don't think this can be done. But good luck to him anyway...it'll be interesting to follow his progress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2007 Share Posted November 23, 2007 Re: $10k in a month Yes, fee has to be counted in ROI. He will "only" be 12 tabling - to start off with. 100% ROI is absolutely and totally unachievable. 10% is being talked about as unachievable too. likely ROI is between 5% and 6% by the looks of it. They're $27+$2.70 games? 6% ROI would be $1.77 profit per game. 5% would be $1.475. With these figures he will need to play between 5500 and 7000 odd games. Something between 180 and 220 per day. He's playing turbo's, but they're quite slow (for turbos) on stars aren't they? Average of 30 mins per game? (including losing games). that's approx 200 x 30 mins = 100 table hours per day..... Assuming he's always 12 tabling that's about 8 and a half hours per day.... I would guess that when pushing it, he COULD play for double that in a day..... It's a test of endurance, but I think it's achievable ..... Think he's starting at 3pm ish today? US time I presume? That'll be about 8pm GMT :unsure (v EST) - might be worth watching him for a bit to see how he plays - must be reasonably "automated" in his approach..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2007 Share Posted November 23, 2007 Re: $10k in a month As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are.... User mkgringo Games Played 5,629 Average Stake $23 Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated) Total Profit $8,131 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodger Posted November 23, 2007 Share Posted November 23, 2007 Re: $10k in a month That's why I've gone wrong here...I can't handle 3 games at once without my brain hitting meltdown...so I was looking at the challenge from my own perspective which makes it absolutely impossible. If he can handle 12 tables at once for such a sustained period then he must have some amazing brain control going on there. Anyway, good luck to him for taking this on in the first place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2007 Share Posted November 23, 2007 Re: $10k in a month If he can handle 12 tables at once for such a sustained period then he must have some amazing brain control going on there. Anyway, good luck to him for taking this on in the first place. essentially you fold everything for the 1st 3 levels except AA KK QQ and then you shove ATC with position from then on simple but brutal Damo ps its obviously a bit more involved than the above but hopefully you get the general picture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: $10k in a month I see he's currently on 11 tables :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: $10k in a month final count he's taken just a shade over $10k on himself at 1.5 to do this. Big balls is all I can say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: $10k in a month I dunno - I assume he's got the game to do it - then it's just a question of endurance/commitment - it's enough games to move beyond variance being a major concern... $20,000 for 1 month playing poker non stop - that can be pretty motrivating ;) 1.5 - What is that? American Odds? Would we know it as 6-4? So he is risking just over $6000 odd to win $10,000? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stereoman Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: $10k in a month Yeah 1.5/1 is 6/4. 2+2 must be having a field day at deriding his attempts...so they are. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=13044047&an=0&page=2&gonew=1#UNREAD http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=13043039&an=0&page=0&gonew=1#UNREAD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: $10k in a month As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are.... User mkgringo Games Played 5,629 Average Stake $23 Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated) Total Profit $8,131 Latest Games Played 5,748 Total Profit $7,753 Net 119 Played $378 down :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: $10k in a month Latest Games Played 5,748 Total Profit $7,753 Net 119 Played $378 down :unsure One standard deviation over 119 games would be around $400. For a 5%-6% ROI over 119 games, he'd be around $150 up. So $378 down is actually only just over one standard deviation below where he'd expect to be. Disappointing, but not devastating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: $10k in a month Really don't think he's going to do it. As GaF pointed out he's 'only' played 5629 on Stars so he's going to have to double that in a month (not sure how long those 5629 took). Also the mental stamina need is huge - at least 8 hours a day 12 tabling must really fry your brain. I suppose the amount of cash on the line will be a big motivator - say he's up $5K after 25 days then he'd probably put in some 18 hour days:eek. I'd imagine some of the people who have action against him will start filling up the $27 games if it gets close:lol. He should have done this at another site and would get some pretty decent rakeback:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: $10k in a month As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are.... User mkgringo Games Played 5,629 Average Stake $23 Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated) Total Profit $8,131 Latest from Sharkscope Played: 262 Profit: ($32) He's pulled it back a bit..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 25, 2007 Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: $10k in a month As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are.... User mkgringo Games Played 5,629 Average Stake $23 Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated) Total Profit $8,131 He's slipped again Played 369 Profit ($317) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 25, 2007 Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: $10k in a month As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are.... User mkgringo Games Played 5,629 Average Stake $23 Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated) Total Profit $8,131 He seems to be in profit again (these are just the sharkscope stats - believe he played some games at the wrong stakes, which wont count) Played: 476 Profit: $34 I know it's not statistically proven or anything yet, but I am now starting to think he wont do it ..... not because I think the challenge is too much - I'm sure there are players who can do it, but this guy just doesn't seem a consistent enough winner :unsure I forgot to change from FullTilt to Stars with my first search, and assuming it's him, Played 416, Average Stake $24, Total LOSS $850...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 25, 2007 Author Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: $10k in a month agreed, he's not got the game, and has put himself under too much pressure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 26, 2007 Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: $10k in a month He seems to be in profit again (these are just the sharkscope stats - believe he played some games at the wrong stakes, which wont count) Played: 476 Profit: $34 I know it's not statistically proven or anything yet, but I am now starting to think he wont do it ..... not because I think the challenge is too much - I'm sure there are players who can do it, but this guy just doesn't seem a consistent enough winner :unsure I don't think there's enough evidence yet. He's only around 0.75 standard deviations below a 6% ROI on those figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetsWinBaby Posted November 26, 2007 Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: $10k in a month http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=12550448&an=0&page=26#Post12550448 Spacegravy managed 25k at the 60's so i think its definetly possible, whether this guy has the skill/patience/time im not so sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 26, 2007 Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: $10k in a month it's enough games to move beyond variance being a major concern... Actually, I don't think it is. If he plays enough games that he would average $10k profit at a 6% ROI, then the standard deviation in his profit is around $3500, which is still quite large. It's not terribly unlikely that he'd only manage a 3% ROI over that period, even if he were really a "6% player". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 26, 2007 Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: $10k in a month http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=12550448&an=0&page=26#Post12550448 Spacegravy managed 25k at the 60's so i think its definetly possible, whether this guy has the skill/patience/time im not so sure. :eek:eek:eek:eek What were the final results? That thread is far too long:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetsWinBaby Posted November 27, 2007 Share Posted November 27, 2007 Re: $10k in a month :eek:eek:eek:eek What were the final results? That thread is far too long:lol he did it! and with time to spare, he won a lot of $$$ in prop bets as well. He is one of the guys that lives in the poker mansion in texas with BigJoe2003, those guys are insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 27, 2007 Share Posted November 27, 2007 Re: $10k in a month Latest news from his site - another losing day :unsure How Am I Doing? daygames playedprofit1123441225399319549541762975006007008009001000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230024002500260027002800290030003100Totals and Averages total games 747average roi0.71profit 144 And his comments.... Sat, Nov 26 started strong first 90 games were at 15% or so, then broke even for 50, then started losing again. sweet. started playing tables stacked instead of tiled, and found i could easily play 20+ without ever timing out. the full size tables are nice and easy on the eyes, and i dont have to move the mouse violently across a 31inch screen so its nice. but i'm not sure if that somehow caused my day to go to shit today. i'm also having trouble w/ the webcam (vista issues) and will try to get it resolved soon. not that any one cares anyway. might play one more quick session tonight. Sun, Nov 27 Woke up fresh, played three short sessions totaling 150 games and ran at 15%. sweet, put me at like 2% overall. Started up a 3 hour session before bed and lost 100 over 50ish games. pretty shitty. put me back down to 10% for the day. beat after beat. kkMon, Nov 28 Can i win an 80/20? no, i cant. started the day with a 26 buyin downswing. awesome. love that. recovered a bit. still effectively at zero. not so good. so now its the 10k in 27 days challenge. tomorow i'll play 300 games for a 30% roi. then i'll be ahead of schedule. thats the plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 29, 2007 Share Posted November 29, 2007 Re: $10k in a month As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are.... User mkgringo Games Played 5,629 Average Stake $23 Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated) Total Profit $8,131 No update on his site, but from Sharkscope, we can approximate as: Played: 1,047 Loss: $1,642 That looks pretty catastrophic now..... Significant yet slap? I'm guessing so... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Re: $10k in a month No update on his site, but from Sharkscope, we can approximate as: Played: 1,047 Loss: $1,642 That looks pretty catastrophic now..... Significant yet slap? I'm guessing so... If he were a "6% player", that would be about 2.5 standard deviations below average. A bit under a 1% chance of doing that badly through bad luck. It's still not impossible that he's just been unlucky, but on the other hand, even if he has, he still needs to pull back the defecit as well as making $10k profit. These are just rough estimates, by the way, and assume that the results of all the games are independent, which is not going to be true in practice. For example, if he has "bad weeks" when he's a "0% player" and an equal number of "good weeks" when he's a "12% player", then his results so far could be because he's had a bad week and a modest amount of bad luck, and if he could string together 3 good weeks then he could still do it. But I'd certainly take 4/6 right now on him not making it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Re: $10k in a month Looks like he's all but given up... sorry i havent been updating guys. you all have seen the trainwreck tho, and to be honest, at this point, i'm just trying to do damage control and cover the losses in bets i made. you can watch SS yourselvs, and if it gets to the point where i think i can make a run for it again, i'll start updating regularly. sorry it wont be an exciting bet Quote: Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BPP) As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are.... User mkgringo Games Played 5,629 Average Stake $23 Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated) Total Profit $8,131 Played: 1,210 Loss: $1,292 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 10, 2007 Share Posted December 10, 2007 Re: $10k in a month No surprise - looks like he's given up.... 2+2 have switched to vbulletin - here's a link to the new thread - http://forums.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=62622 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 27, 2007 Author Share Posted December 27, 2007 Re: $10k in a month last update was a 46 dollar profit after 2,220 sngs. Shame he failed, but it was a crazy undertaking, he simply didn't have the game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.