robilaruk Posted November 16, 2007 Share Posted November 16, 2007 Got no idea at all with this one :$ help appreciated, its a massive amount of my stack and its the bubble - and shortie has not shoved for 4 orbits Ta Damo 100.00/200.00 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Texas Hold'em (No Limit ) - 16 November 2007 19:59:42 STT NL (Real /Tournament ) Seat 2: boris59 (6350.00) Seat 4: tal2traine (715.00) Seat 5: who man? (6310.00) Seat 7: robilaruk (1625.00) who man? post SB 100.00 robilaruk post BB 200.00 ** Deal ** boris59 [N/A, N/A] tal2traine [N/A, N/A] who man? [N/A, N/A] robilaruk [10c, 6d] *** Bet Round 1 *** boris59 Fold tal2traine All-in 715.00 who man? Fold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slick mick Posted November 16, 2007 Share Posted November 16, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold Only 2 to 1 odds so an easy fold for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted November 16, 2007 Share Posted November 16, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold Looks like an easy fold for me too, but I dare say we should listen to Slapdash or GaF's pocket calculators on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyhornet Posted November 16, 2007 Share Posted November 16, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold I think I'd fold here aswell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest gazza271 Posted November 16, 2007 Share Posted November 16, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold easy fold for me :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 17, 2007 Share Posted November 17, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold it's a insta fold. To play a hand, I look for three things. High card potential, suited and connectness. Two out of three of them are normally required to play. You have zero out of the three, i'd imagine your behind. you can afford 200. Attach him next time and get it back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubermonkey1 Posted November 18, 2007 Share Posted November 18, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold fold for me as well. you still have 7x the bb so its not quite desperation time yet and even if its a bluff he is still probably ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted November 18, 2007 Share Posted November 18, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold Easy fold, even for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPP-PitBoss Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold I am surprised you are asking the question... You have muck at very best your cards are live, but more likely dominated You can still see another orbit Its the bubble Fold I cannot see any reason whatsoever that would mean a call here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold I call here.. :dude:dude:dude:dude Its costing 500 odd to call and you still have 5 x BB left and a full orbit before BB again Call for me and If it loses then im sitting tight..Had it been a bigger stack aginst you or had anyone else called then im gone but its head up all in and not the worst calling hand in the world... He may have pocket 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's , AK, AQ, AJ, Ax and you may hit any of your two cards easily.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPP-PitBoss Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold He wont have 5 x bb as he will have to pay the SB nex hand in addition to teh 715. That gives him 810 once the sb is posted which is 4 blinds. Doubling up from 4 blinds will still leave him a short stack with 8 blinds although time to level up is not posted. If we fold here we still have 1,425 to play with when a double up with that will leave us in a much more comfortable position. To call is true gambleration here imo Fold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold He wont have 5 x bb as he will have to pay the SB nex hand in addition to teh 715. That gives him 810 once the sb is posted which is 4 blinds. Doubling up from 4 blinds will still leave him a short stack with 8 blinds although time to level up is not posted. If we fold here we still have 1,425 to play with when a double up with that will leave us in a much more comfortable position. To call is true gambleration here imo Fold True.. I'll still call though!! ;););) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPP-PitBoss Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold Loon :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold Loon :D Frisky's a nut case - must be something in the water in Ireland :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 19, 2007 Author Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold I am asking the question to get feedback, so in the future we can devise a (near) 'perfect' strategy for this situation. if you look at the other XXIV pop-quiz threads you will get an idea of what I hope to achieve by posting them. this is a very very close call IMO, the cards I hold are fairly irrelevant, the cost of chips to stack size to the chance I can knock out another player and get ITM is what is important here, the cards are last in my thoughts. If I had been holding 76 or 86 this is probably an auto call for me as that hand is much better than 10 6 (I have more chances to make straights etc). I know that I am (probably) behind, but not by much - 65/35 probably, its whether I want to call as a 2-1 dog, given that I am getting 2-1 for my chips? or whtehr I should fold and shove my SB next hand if its folded to me etc Hope this clarifies why I posted the HH - thanks for the response :ok Cheers Damo I am surprised you are asking the question... You have muck at very best your cards are live, but more likely dominated You can still see another orbit Its the bubble Fold I cannot see any reason whatsoever that would mean a call here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold this is a very very close call IMO' date='[/quote'] Sorry Damo - I just cannot see a call here - there will be far better spots - you're 35:65 pretty much at BEST - dont discount totally the spots where you are worse.... What would be an interesting question is how low your stack would need to be where you are 50/50 to decide to call/fold - where is that "tipping point" - I think it should be VERY small.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 19, 2007 Author Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold What would be an interesting question is how low your stack would need to be where you are 50/50 to decide to call/fold - where is that "tipping point" - I think it should be VERY small.... for me I am very close to calling - the tipping point is almost there I can call, win/lose and be either ITM or still in the game, the villian might be doubled up or out of the game I would rather call shorties shove than a big stack shove with a 'better hand' thats puts me at risk of elimination i.e next hand in the SB I have A8 and big stack shoves - I am probably (80%) folding my A8 in this spot as the person who really benefits from me calling is the other shortie as I might bust and he gets ITM. Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold I'd rather not be calling anyones shove at this stage, except with pretty strong hands.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 19, 2007 Author Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold I'd rather not be calling anyones shove at this stage' date=' except with pretty strong hands....[/quote'] whats your range against the big stacks that can knock you out? whats your range against the short stack who you can knock out? Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold It depends on more than just the cards (and the stacks). Where's he shoving from? How frequently is he shoving? (ie what do I put him on) What's the recent history? etc However my range to call is far far narrower than my range to shove (otherwise called "the gap" :tongue2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 19, 2007 Author Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold you're 35:65 pretty much at BEST - dont discount totally the spots where you are worse.... quote] or discount spots when I am better as well? I think they pretty much even out to about 65/35 (OK maybe 70/30:)) his range must be very small for me to be worse than 65/35 - AA-1010 is bad (80+/20-), 99-77 is about 70/30, 66 I am a 2-1 dog Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 19, 2007 Author Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold It depends on more than just the cards (and the stacks). Where's he shoving from? How frequently is he shoving? (ie what do I put him on) What's the recent history? etc as it was a theoritical question can we base it on the stacks I posted in the HH and lets say that One big stack is playing properly and putting the shorties in 6 hands out of 10 that the other big stack is playing slightly less optiminally against shorties when the aggressive big stack folds and is only putting us AI every 4th time this happens and shortie is playing fairly tight and shoves half the times he can against me when its folded to his button vs my BB Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold Just had a fiddle in Pokerstove, and you have more equity in the hand than I appreciated..... If he shoves with top 50% of hands then you come in at about 35/65 A call probably isn't as big a mistake as I (and everyone else) thinks :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold Just had a fiddle in Pokerstove, and you have more equity in the hand than I appreciated..... If he shoves with top 50% of hands then you come in at about 35/65 A call probably isn't as big a mistake as I (and everyone else) thinks :unsure Though we were told that he hadn't shoved for 4 orbits, so his range is probably narrower than top 50%. By the way, I did the ICM calculation, just for completeness. It says you need a 35.20% chance of winning for it to be worth calling. Not much higher than the figure (33.66%) based on raw pot odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold Though we were told that he hadn't shoved for 4 orbits, so his range is probably narrower than top 50%. By the way, I did the ICM calculation, just for completeness. It says you need a 35.20% chance of winning for it to be worth calling. Not much higher than the figure (33.66%) based on raw pot odds. does that mean it's negative ev, but only just? A small mistake to call, not a huge one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold does that mean it's negative ev' date=' but only just? A small mistake to call, not a huge one?[/quote'] It still depends on your opponent's hand range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPP-PitBoss Posted November 20, 2007 Share Posted November 20, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold It depends on more than just the cards (and the stacks). Where's he shoving from? How frequently is he shoving? (ie what do I put him on) What's the recent history? etc However my range to call is far far narrower than my range to shove (otherwise called "the gap" :tongue2) OP says shortie hasnt shoved for 4 orbits, that would concern me. Shortie is on the SB so he has another Orbit with a fold here. BTW if it wasnt the bubble I would not be so strong in advocating a fold in this position Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted November 20, 2007 Share Posted November 20, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold OP says shortie hasnt shoved for 4 orbits, that would concern me. Shortie is on the SB so he has another Orbit with a fold here. BTW if it wasnt the bubble I would not be so strong in advocating a fold in this position Everyone here is of the opinion that "Shortie" has been playing tight.. My suggestion is that he has been hoping for someone else to go out and now the blinds are catching up, he feels its time to bully the next biggest stack. He has already mentioned that the same player has aggressively attacked his blind before - I believe this trait is his downfall and I CALL here regardless!! Not everyone is a pro on these tables IM ALL IN!! :ok:ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 20, 2007 Author Share Posted November 20, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold thanks all for the responses:ok Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted November 29, 2007 Share Posted November 29, 2007 Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXV) - Call or Fold Never found out what happened here Damo ?? Just to see if Nikki or I were right.. ;););) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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